Srain Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT TUE APR 03 2012 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER ERN NM WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO ONSHORE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH INTO THE PACIFIC NW. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTING AROUND THE UPPER LOW ACROSS WRN TX WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/KS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...AN ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM THE OZARKS TO CNTRL GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE EWD/NEWD WITHIN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NRN IL WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS IND TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH NRN EXTENSION OF ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS LOW WILL BE TRAILED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/OZARKS. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN KS WILL REMAIN MORE QUASI-STATIONARY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING FROM NWRN TX INTO S-CNTRL KS. FARTHER S...A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD FROM W-CNTRL INTO CNTRL TX...BOUNDED ON THE N BY A W-E ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS NRN PARTS OF TX/LA. ...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY INTO TONIGHT... A N-S BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE...ELEVATED TSTMS HAS EVOLVED THIS MORNING OVER N-CNTRL TX/S-CNTRL OK IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO VORTICITY MAXIMUM PIVOTING AROUND NM UPPER LOW. 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDING MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50+ KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL TX SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SUCH THAT ONGOING STORMS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SURFACE-BASED BY AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF TRAILING PACIFIC FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E. AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 1000-2500 J PER KG/ AND 40-60 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED LARGELY ORTHOGONAL TO THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE /ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL AND NERN TX/ GIVEN MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ELSEWHERE...STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE SURGING EWD/SEWD INTO W-CNTRL MS...CNTRL/SRN LA AND SERN TX. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE W...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW AIR MASS /REF. 12Z LCH SOUNDING/ WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. ...OH VALLEY... 12Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S TO AROUND 60 F TO YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG SURFACE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCATTERED TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF IL/IN. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING SEWD INTO PARTS OF KY TONIGHT. ...SERN U.S... REMNANT MCV OVER THE FL PNHDL...HEATING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS...AND WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS WILL ALL SERVE AS FOCI FOR STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE. ..MEAD/GARNER.. 04/03/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Tornado Watch up. Might be the longest time frame I've seen: http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=usa&wwa=Tornado%20Watch TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 133 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 TORNADO WATCH 133 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS TXC001-027-035-085-099-113-119-121-139-145-161-193-213-217-221- 223-231-251-257-281-289-293-309-331-349-367-379-395-397-425-439- 467-497-040100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0133.120403T1710Z-120404T0100Z/ TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE COLLIN CORYELL DALLAS DELTA DENTON ELLIS FALLS FREESTONE HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM NAVARRO PARKER RAINS ROBERTSON ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE $$ ATTN...WFO...FWD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 That cell heading toward Ft. Worth is starting to look supercellular, and there looks to be some embedded rotation in the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1244 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 130 PM CDT * AT 1244 PM CDT...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS OBSERVED A TORNADO NEAR JOSHUA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... BURLESON AND BRIAROAKS AROUND 1255 PM CDT... CROWLEY AROUND 100 PM CDT... RENDON AROUND 110 PM CDT... EVERMAN...EDGECLIFF AND MANSFIELD AROUND 115 PM CDT... FOREST HILL AND KENNEDALE AROUND 120 PM CDT... THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES... I-35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 35 AND 59... I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 426 AND 445... I-30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 23... I-820 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1255 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... NORTH CENTRAL ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 145 PM CDT * AT 1256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR OAK LEAF... MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... GLENN HEIGHTS AND RED OAK AROUND 105 PM CDT... DESOTO AROUND 115 PM CDT... LANCASTER AND DUNCANVILLE AROUND 120 PM CDT... WILMER AROUND 125 PM CDT... HUTCHINS AROUND 135 PM CDT... COCKRELL HILL AROUND 140 PM CDT... THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES... I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 46 AND 60... I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 452 AND 467... I-30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 49... I-45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 282 AND 284. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Very impressive hooks on those two cells, DFW metro is in big time trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1256 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 TXC251-439-031830- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120403T1830Z/ JOHNSON TX-TARRANT TX- 1256 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT AND NORTH CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTIES... AT 1256 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BRIAROAKS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... CROWLEY AROUND 105 PM CDT... DALWORTHINGTON GARDENS...PANTEGO AND ARLINGTON AROUND 130 PM CDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Also beyond these 2 tornadic supercells the squall line directly West of the Metroplex is severe warned for baseball sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Jesus two cells targeting the Metroplex... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Tornadoes on the ground with both cells now, per Reimer on the Ft Worth cell, and CBS Dallas on the Dallas County cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 NBC Dallas live feed: http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Severe-Storms-Building-to-the-West-145934445.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Eastern cell is going to miss David's house in Duncanville by less then 5 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Greg Forbes says no tornado structure from helicopter view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 102 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 TXC251-439-031830- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120403T1830Z/ JOHNSON TX-TARRANT TX- 102 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN TARRANT AND NORTH CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTIES... AT 101 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BURLESON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE NEAR CLEBURNE...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... RENDON AROUND 115 PM CDT... EVERMAN...EDGECLIFF AND MANSFIELD AROUND 120 PM CDT... FOREST HILL AND KENNEDALE AROUND 125 PM CDT... DALWORTHINGTON GARDENS...PANTEGO...ARLINGTON AND FORT WORTH AROUND 130 PM CDT... THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES... I-35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 36 AND 59... I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 426 AND 445... I-30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 6 AND 23... I-820 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Dallas Cell: AT 107 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OAK LEAF...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Tornado on the ground on TWC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Large tornado on the ground in moving into Dallas County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 http://www.nbcdfw.com/weather/stories/Severe-Storms-Building-to-the-West-145934445.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Screencap from approximately 1:12pm CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 There was cleary a tornado there for about a minute. Can't see it very well anymore. Edit: There it is again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Probably 1/4 mile wide at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Caught on traffic cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Dallas cell: AT 116 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONFIRMED A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LANCASTER...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF DALLAS AND THE CITY OF LANCASTER! SEEK SHELTER NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 116 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 TXC113-031845- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120403T1845Z/ DALLAS TX- 116 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY... AT 116 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONFIRMED A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LANCASTER...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF DALLAS AND THE CITY OF LANCASTER! SEEK SHELTER NOW! THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... LANCASTER AROUND 125 PM CDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED! THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Tornado emergency... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Greg Forbes really downplaying it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Quite a bit of debris in the air with the Lancaster tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Greg Forbes really downplaying it right now. He shouldn't be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Power flashes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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