Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is NAM/GGEM free thread....Only references to the operational runs of the GFS and Euro are allowed....no other models, or ensembles are allowed to be referenced or discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 now the Gfs is an elite model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 No ukmet love? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 now the Gfs is an elite model? It is having a tough winter, but yes....we now have euro/gfs is somewhat of the same camp for DC metro...1-2", maybe 2-3" event...People can discuss fantasy solutions in the other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 No ukmet love? I know UKmet has good verification scores, but I don't think it has a great track record with east coast storms and nobody has good graphics for it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I know UKmet has good verification scores, but I don't think it has a great track record with east coast storms and nobody has good graphics for it anyway That's a good argument...graphics make a big difference. I like the idea of having two separate discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It is having a tough winter, but yes....we now have euro/gfs is somewhat of the same camp for DC metro...1-2", maybe 2-3" event...People can discuss fantasy solutions in the other thread if were getting 1-2 inches..thats reallly no better than the jan 17-18 event. Why are we wasting our time with this crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 if were getting 1-2 inches..thats reallly no better than the jan 17-18 event. Why are we wasting our time with this crap? maybe we can get more..but 2-3" during the afternoon, evening with potentially +SN is better than the nonsense that fell 1/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 if were getting 1-2 inches..thats reallly no better than the jan 17-18 event. Why are we wasting our time with this crap? because it hasn't started yet and 2" would cover the grass for most. Given this winter that is a huge victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 maybe we can get more..but 2-3" during the afternoon, evening with potentially +SN is better than the nonsense that fell 1/21 a 2-3 inch storm isnt even winter storm warning worthy. I guess its okay for this year but we are not the carolinas. We got 3 HECS in one year..we have 2 winters in the past 7 years with 50 inches plus of snowfall...we need to have more of a snowtown mentality and just chalk up the past 2 years to bad luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I bet Euro comes north in an hour or so. Probably will bring good snows up to BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 I bet Euro comes north in an hour or so. Probably will bring good snows up to BWI. I certainly hope so....the 0z's best snows were in Tallahassee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I certainly hope so....the 0z's best snows were in Tallahassee Euro frequently overdoes the suppression thing. We've seen it with alot of our NE systems until the last minute. Either way though, this is a work in progress proably until 0Z tonight or maybe even 12Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro frequently overdoes the suppression thing. We've seen it with alot of our NE systems until the last minute. Either way though, this is a work in progress proably until 0Z tonight or maybe even 12Z tomorrow. agreed...I'd just like to see the Euro get us 50-75 miles from good banding...then a small jog north would help us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro frequently overdoes the suppression thing. We've seen it with alot of our NE systems until the last minute. Either way though, this is a work in progress proably until 0Z tonight or maybe even 12Z tomorrow. Agree, and even then, I don't think anything is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro is out to 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Euro is out to 6 Are you doing the PBP here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 agreed...I'd just like to see the Euro get us 50-75 miles from good banding...then a small jog north would help us You may not have to be that far into the snow shield to see that. The good banding may only be like 50 miles into the snow shield. If that. I definitely could see that wiggle room for you guys, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Are you doing the PBP here? yep That way it won't get broken up with discussions of the nogaps ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 You may not have to be that far into the snow shield to see that. The good banding may only be like 50 miles into the snow shield. If that. I definitely could see that wiggle room for you guys, hopefully. Unless this run makes some bad changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Unless this run makes some bad changes. Let me guess, it just made some bad changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Unless this run makes some bad changes. Randy and I already have a 4wd reserved, though I am not driving to Kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Let me guess, it just made some bad changes? it's at 18 hrs...relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 it's at 18 hrs...relax no extrapolation either...I am waiting for the run to run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Let me guess, it just made some bad changes? LOL, no I didn't mean to infer that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Randy and I already have a 4wd reserved, though I am not driving to Kentucky Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 no major shifts thru 36.. maybe a bit slower. precip a hair south in spots tho it's early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not really happy on the 500mb look, but I'll let it role out another frame or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Not really crazy on the 500mb look, but I'll let it role out another frame or two. streams look less impressive than 0z so far but who knows. precip still south of 0z thru 48.. but the slp is a smidge slower at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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