ace0927 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Snow grazes Long Island by hr 72 but looks like the low is getting sheared out. The phase looks like it happens a little too late. Heavy snow I-195 and south. Pretty much an exact 2/6/10 repeat. these maps are a heart attack... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_0z/wrf72.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Basically 2-4 phl south....mid atlantic gets crushed and nyc gets flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Cape May, NJ to DC do very well on the NAM. Cutoff is sharp on the north side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Rather rain for all then that heartbreak repeat We still have 72 hours for this to correct. Hopefully we see more northern stream interaction on future runs, plus a quicker retreat of the northern branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I would take the first 24-48 hours of the NAM run as an improvement..and see if the other models can build off it. Anything after 48 is a crapshoot with this model, and that's being generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Sizeable snow gets up to Atlantic City, decent snow into Philly. DC gets crushed, probably a foot of snow around the area. North of Sandy Hook high and dry. Still a very good first step here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We still have 72 hours for this to correct. Hopefully we see more northern stream interaction on future runs, plus a quicker retreat of the northern branch. Unlike 2/6/10, there is no strong -NAO so there is room for the 50/50 low to move. If you remember, this is what happened 12/19/09, models were barely showing snow getting into NYC due to the confluence caused by the 50/50, as we got closer (I think around 60 hrs?) models started to reduce the strength of the 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 And this is why the Nam is garbage after 36 hours, huge run to run changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Sizeable snow gets up to Atlantic City, decent snow into Philly. DC gets crushed, probably a foot of snow around the area. North of Sandy Hook high and dry. Still a very good first step here. If I've learned anything from the past years of model analysis, is that it's never a good thing to be in the bullseye on the NAM 72 hours out. Weenie statement, but just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I don't think the s/w in the northern steam is going to get out of the way fast enough. It's so obviously blocking height rises in NY and NE toward the end of the NAMs run. And even though the vortmax gets out of the way, the flow in its wake is poorly aligned. I just hope it's being poorly modeled and that the wave elongates and maybe breaks into distinct pieces, one of which drops into the backside of the southern stream. Because as currently modeled, I don't think there's too much room for northward movement. But I think PHL is actually in good shape and even NYC has a decent chance with a slight northward adjustment. But for those just to the north of NYC or in ski country, these types of runs are very frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Unlike 2/6/10, there is no strong -NAO so there is room for the 50/50 low to move. If you remember, this is what happened 12/19/09, models were barely showing snow getting into NYC due to the confluence caused by the 50/50, as we got closer (I think around 60 hrs?) models started to reduce the strength of the 50/50 you bring up the a good point models tend to over due some features with some of these large east coast storms like 12/19/09 where the 50/50 was not as strong as modeled earlier. were still 72 hours out to see if this turns north. dont be surprised if this does trend north, remember how many storms actually modeled to be south 80+hours stayed that way instead of coming north. not very many at all. this is far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 And this is why the Nam is garbage after 36 hours, huge run to run changes. The changes were fairly apparent early..That being said, it's probably still wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 That was a huge change on the NAM as early as 30 hrs....much faster and more progressive with the northern stream feature which was really screwing things earlier. That feature is huge as immediately following it's pass through or north of the area...you get nw winds at the mid levels which will squash any chance of precip getting here. But as myself and several others mentioned earlier this morning, the trend this entire winter has been faster and less amplified with northern stream troughs...so that could be our last moment hope. That being said it's still gonna take another big bump like this to get us meaningful precipitation and that is really moving into unmarked territory and is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Despite the changes, look how northwesterly the flow is over the Great Lakes and New England at 57 hours. We're still going to have real trouble getting this thing up here. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_0z/f57.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 We have to hope it keeps being modeled to shift further and further north and faster, the northern stream feature, I honestly dont think its out of the realm of possibilities given that we dont have a real -NAO. Despite the changes, look how northwesterly the flow is over the Great Lakes and New England at 57 hours. We're still going to have real trouble getting this thing up here. http://www.meteo.psu...EAST_0z/f57.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is not going to be a February 6, 2010 repeat, there is no big moisture inflow like a Nino would do, no one is getting 20-30", but there is a confluence issue with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Despite the changes, look how northwesterly the flow is over the Great Lakes and New England at 57 hours. We're still going to have real trouble getting this thing up here. http://www.meteo.psu...EAST_0z/f57.gif The 50/50 low is too far south at this time. And chances are that we aren't going to get the southern vort to slow down much more, with trough coming into the West coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 there is a pretty decent moisture river being fed into this Subtropical jet feature. Nina or Nino. This is not going to be a February 6, 2010 repeat, there is no big moisture inflow like a Nino would do, no one is getting 20-30", but there is a confluence issue with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This is not going to be a February 6, 2010 repeat, there is no big moisture inflow like a Nino would do, no one is getting 20-30", but there is a confluence issue with us. That's what I meant, obviously nobody will get 20-30", but several places could pick up a foot or more because there is actually a significant amount of moisture with this one. The confluence issue could benefit places that were hammered in Feb 5-6, 2010 while we stay high and dry so that's the similarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 there is a pretty decent moisture river being fed into this Subtropical jet feature. Nina or Nino. Yes, no doubt, about that, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 This thread is a f*cking disaster to try to read after being away for a few hours....how is this crap by ace and others still allowed? So much for storm mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Looking closer at H5 i dont like the setup very much at all. Blocking over the DS pushes down a strong area of confluence over SE canada that really forces the vort out due east rather than coming up north like most KU's we get. If you look at the charts, they're is an annoying piece of energy diving down from the ridge over the central US that kicks the vort OTS and adds to the already strong confluence. If we want a northerly trend, we need the confluence to weaken and if we want that to happen, that vort must weaken as well Just my .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Unlike 2/6/10, there is no strong -NAO so there is room for the 50/50 low to move. If you remember, this is what happened 12/19/09, models were barely showing snow getting into NYC due to the confluence caused by the 50/50, as we got closer (I think around 60 hrs?) models started to reduce the strength of the 50/50 12/19/09 though had the ridge out west, there is no doubt that if we had a ridge out west or that system crashing into the PAC NW was later this thing would be coming up the coast. This system does bear some similarity to the 12/09 storm as well as 3/4/81 and 2/11/83 as a few others mentioned in that the southern vort wouldn't have any true northern stream interaction and would need to amplify by itself, the problem is the ridging out west aided the 12/09 and 1983 storms and in the 81 storm the -NAO and the vort rotating SW in Canada served to increase heights off the E Coast. You can add 3/81 to the list with 12/19/95 of 2 decent events that occurred with no ridge out west, but they were aided by a -NAO and a SW rotating vortex over S Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Actually, if you look closely, the is no real textbook block. Rather, you have a weak high edging in over Central Quebec, that allows a strong, albeit displaced to the south, 50/50 to develop and allow the storm to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 The GFS is also trying to trend faster with the northern stream so far through 24 hours. These shortwaves and associated troughs in Canada are moving around like crazy from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Northern stream looks much faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 The GFS is also way faster with the northern stream feature...compared to the 18z run it's pretty comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 faster and the vortmax that was over michigan on the 18z run is now further NE The GFS is also way faster with the northern stream feature...compared to the 18z run it's pretty comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Comparing 18z to 00z northern stream looks faster and more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 faster and the vortmax that was over michigan on the 18z run is now further NE It's already over Central New England now at 48 hr. The issue still is that the mid level winds are screwed behind that...it's a strong vortmax too. And the phase is still really sloppy. Perfect recipe for a north trend that halts near our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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