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Valentine's day 2012 system


Cheeznado

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I think the much bigger deal with this Rankin is the weakening wave AND the fact that it is tracking more toward the Ohio Valley instead of the TN Valley. CLT sounding at 7AM Tues on the NAM has 36 deg, with a dewpoint of 22. Good moisture would easily overcome that dewpoint depression.

Thank you GRITEATER!

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The GFS snow depth product has all of north GA north of the metro area 1-2" except far NE where about .5 to 1 is forecast. My house in Dekalb county no accumulations. Not unexpected, but maybe we can squeeze that snow line a tad south. Folks in the far northern ATL burbs .5 to 1" This looks very similar to the RPM snow forecast. Sorry TN (except mountains and far S), and of course not much in NC.

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Agree with this...it is quite common for overrunning type precip to stream east, ahead of model projections....and it's typically early to exit on the back end.

Yep. In fact I keep looking at all these forecast calling for mix to rain on Tuesday during the day and I keep thinking the best precip and forcing will most likely be between tomorrow Evening and overnight...Way ahead of current schedule.

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The GFS snow depth product has all of north GA north of the metro area 1-2" except far NE where about .5 to 1 is forecast. My house in Dekalb county no accumulations. Not unexpected, but maybe we can squeeze that snow line a tad south. Folks in the far northern ATL burbs .5 to 1" This looks very similar to the RPM snow forecast. Sorry TN (except mountains and far S), and of course not much in NC.

Yep. Keep in mind atleast across far north Ga models have underdone precip forecast all winter long. Not saying it will be a big deal here but a tenth or two a little earlier in the evening and your looking at an advisory type event possible across the far nrn part.

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Interesting how I have gotten a reputation of being "pessimistic"- I try to be realistic, not pessimistic or optimistic.

Back on the subject, the 00Z WSI RPM has a band of about 1" across northern LA and north GA mainly north of the ATL perimeter, with 2" in far NE GA and NW SC. Most other places incl NC and most of TN not much. Kind of an odd setup.

good to know! i think ill make a trip to the store tommorow before the bafoons buy up all the milk for an inch or so.. would be nice to see the idiots on the news talking about how slick the road was because a mud puddle on the edge of the road froze, and my car veared off the road to hit this monster foot wide frozen puddle and i lost control. was all i could do to hang on to my steering wheel!

:popcorn:

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12z GFS holds suite to quick hit snow in far northern counties of GA.

Sometimes these type of systems can have a "finger" of precip that streaks out ahead and lays down a higher QPF in a very narrow band that usually yields an over achieving amount in a very narrow west to east band. Something like that is possible. I'm not saying likely...but possible.

What I don't like about this whole thing is that right now everything is razor thin in far N GA so any slight deviations the wrong way throw the whole thing out the door.

post-347-0-83968800-1328890885.gif

I've not had the chance to look at this system at all the last few days until this morning (staying with my grandmother in the hospital and other time consuming things) but I totally agree about that "finger" of precip, which happens more often than not and I was thinking the exact same thing to myself earlier (been up since 3:30am). It also always seems to catch ffc by surprise (last year's big snowstorm for example.

The warming at 850mb is incredible though after looking at the soundings. Nam/gfs show 850mb temps dropping to as low as -5c after saturation then in 2 or 3 hours it's well above freezing. So if we don't have this finger of precip moving east, I see an hour or two of snow, then sleet, then rain for a lot of folks. If this ribbon of precip develops eastward, some lucky could see a quick inch imo since this type of thing usually develops a couple of hours ahead of schedule and precip totals/nam composite (depending on run) looks like the leading edge of precip is pretty heavy. Otherwise, a dusting to half inch looks at least possible for the rest.

Indeed, i wouldn't be surprised to see a more widespread area of precip faster and further east, than what the models are showing, as is typical in these types of situations.. The largest thing against this though is the very dry air in the mid to low levels. It's really going to be one of those things where you won't know until it happens.

We will need to watch surface temps too...we could actually get a brief period of freezing rain after the snow/sleet. Both models show low dewpoints (teens) but it will depend on how much we cool that evening. However, I expect the usual jump in temps when the clouds roll in. Gfs has us very close to freezing though early tuesday so we'll see. Won't be a big deal and won't last long, just something to watch.

It might only last an hour or two but At least it's SOMETHING in this god awful winter and we finally have something to talk about other than the endless parade of 60s and short cool spells. Given how bad/warm this winter has been, we would be very fortunate to get any snow at all this year to me..even if it's only an hour or two.

I do expect also tuesday to be a cold day, the gfs is holding temps in the 30s all day.

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no one saying much, maybe everyone had a late Sat. night. Could the winter storm watches extend into the north car. and south car. mtns as well as the north ga mtns. for the late monday night early tuesday morning time frame?

Well according to the latest NAM it takes longer to get here and is weaker. I would be surprised if any watches went up for NC and SC.

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no one saying much, maybe everyone had a late Sat. night. Could the winter storm watches extend into the north car. and south car. mtns as well as the north ga mtns. for the late monday night early tuesday morning time frame?

I would say more like WInter Wx. Advisories may possibly be issued sometime Monday for Nrn Areas of Alabama,Georgia and Possibly Tennessee but that obviously will depend on trends out west through Sunday Night and Monday morning.

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Just monitoring trends to the West and South and noticed that the San Antonio,TX area which had an advisory put out late last night has now been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning now..

image5a.gif

Those areas are at the same latitude as Florida ! Surely places like Macon and Atlanta can get in on some action if areas that far south can !

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man what a winter, everytime we have a chance which hasn't been many we can't seem to get a decent snow storm into the area. everything must have to be picture perfect to get a snowstorm cranked up in the southeast nc and tenn. area. the midwest it snows at nothing. kinda sick of this winter.

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man what a winter, everytime we have a chance which hasn't been many we can't seem to get a decent snow storm into the area. everything must have to be picture perfect to get a snowstorm cranked up in the southeast nc and tenn. area. the midwest it snows at nothing. kinda sick of this winter.

Yeah we finally get an arctic airmass in place and 2 days later rain.

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Well, with 850's low enough, and temps and td's maybe low enough during about .06, I kind of hope I beat my sleet total of the year, if some early streaks bring the hard drops....30 pellets would do it :) Not the great storm portrayed last week, but at least some energy seems to be entering the country for the rest of the month, and chances on the southern stream. Looks better than Jan. did, anyway, lol. If nothing else, I hope some decent rain verifies. Been a very dry month so far, and Goofy is only offering .4 or so tomorrow night/Tues. T

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I think a few southern folks out west in TX/AR might end up with some "surprises" in the snow department. Like for example San Angelo, TX. Earlier this morning the NWS forecast was only calling for rain/sleet w/ no accumulation. As of the 1pm hour they are now calling for snow/sleet and 1-2 inches! They weren't forecasting any snow accumulations this morning so this is a last minute change.

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too bad that logic does not apply to the weather world or we would all ne in business

Those areas are at the same latitude as Florida ! Surely places like Macon and Atlanta can get in on some action if areas that far south can !

The weather patterns that produce snow to the Mexico/Texas border are different than the ones that might make snow in Florida. West TX has elevation and the winds that come out of the north usually go over a bit of snow and lots of cold land before making it to Texas. Although it's rare, it's not as rare as Florida snow. Florida not only has to deal with the gulf of Mexico (which modifies arctic air), but it has to deal with air usually crossing part of the great lakes, which unless frozen also can slightly modify the air. Air over land can stay cold a lot better than air over water (unless it's frozen). Florida is usually a much lower elevation than most of West Texas (Austin and San Antonio both are higher than the entire state of Florida) - and even parts of middle southern Texas. As for latitude, parts of Hawaii also get snow too - but that is usually above 13,000'.

EDIT: Take a look at Blue Northers for a good example of this:

http://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/online/articles/ybb01

Elevation is a funny thing. When I hiked up to Mt. Leconte yesterday and drove along Cherokee Orchard Rd, there was only light snow/rain in Gatlinburg, and within a few miles as the elevation went up to 2600' I saw more and more snow, the temp. drop to 31F, and snow starting to accumulate everywhere. A difference of 1000' was like driving to another state. Check the obs thread for my photos of Mt. Leconte in 5F weather with 8" of snow.

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The weather patterns that produce snow to the Mexico/Texas border are different than the ones that might make snow in Florida. West TX has elevation and the winds that come out of the north usually go over a bit of snow and lots of cold land before making it to Texas. Although it's rare, it's not as rare as Florida snow. Florida not only has to deal with the gulf of Mexico (which modifies arctic air), but it has to deal with air usually crossing part of the great lakes, which unless frozen also can slightly modify the air. Air over land can stay cold a lot better than air over water (unless it's frozen). Florida is usually a much lower elevation than most of West Texas (Austin and San Antonio both are higher than the entire state of Florida) - and even parts of middle southern Texas. As for latitude, parts of Hawaii also get snow too - but that is usually above 13,000'.

EDIT: Take a look at Blue Northers for a good example of this:

http://www.tshaonlin.../articles/ybb01

Elevation is a funny thing. When I hiked up to Mt. Leconte yesterday and drove along Cherokee Orchard Rd, there was only light snow/rain in Gatlinburg, and within a few miles as the elevation went up to 2600' I saw more and more snow, the temp. drop to 31F, and snow starting to accumulate everywhere. A difference of 1000' was like driving to another state. Check the obs thread for my photos of Mt. Leconte in 5F weather with 8" of snow.

Although I don't think the extreme Northern part of FL has to deal with arctic air moving over the Gulf since they are north of the Gulf. But even there, it seems like snow is more rare than it is in areas further south like San Antonio.

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mcd0116.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0116

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1030 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 121630Z - 122030Z

A BAND OF SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE EDWARDS

PLATEAU LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW RATES MAY

EXCEED ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET.

LLJ IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SWRN

TX AHEAD OF TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY EARLY EVENING IT

APPEARS A STRONG LLJ...IN EXCESS OF 50KT...WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS

THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO WRN OK. LATEST RADAR DATA EXHIBITS AN E-W

BAND OF MOSTLY SNOW FROM TERRELL COUNTY...EWD TO GILLESPIE COUNTY IN

THE HILL COUNTRY. THIS BAND IS EVOLVING ALONG THE NOSE OF STRONGEST

WARM ADVECTION AND IS SPREADING/DEVELOPING NWD AT ROUGHLY 20KT.

GIVEN THE LOW WBZ LEVELS JUST NORTH OF THIS SNOW BAND IT APPEARS THE

ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH TIME

WARM ADVECTION WILL CERTAINLY WARM THE PROFILES SUCH THAT A CHANGE

OVER TO SLEET SHOULD BE NOTED. OVERALL...TRANSITORY NATURE OF

CONVECTIVE BAND SHOULD LIMIT SNOW TOTALS.

..DARROW.. 02/12/2012

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 30900194 31680089 31659914 30789842 30039915 29930105

30140192 30900194

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Interesting Afternoon AFD from FFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

222 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

...WINTRY WEATHER BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR NORTHERN TIER OF

FORECAST AREA...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ALL IS QUIET ON THE HOME FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE

IN FULL CONTROL...CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND MISSISSIPPI. TEMPS

HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING IN CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN...BUT

JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE 40S. GRADIENT HAS

RELAXED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS

TO AROUND 20 MPH PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S. CLEAR

SKIES PREVAIL WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY COLD

NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND TAKES RESIDENCE OVER ALABAMA AND

WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL

COOLING PROFILE IN STORE TEMPS FALLING AT A NON DIURNAL RATE THIS

EVENING BEFORE A SLOW BOTTOMING OUT THROUGH SUNRISE. GIVEN CLEAR

SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL BE STAYING ON THE LOW SIDE OF

GUIDANCE FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD.

MAIN CONCERN AND FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE THE

POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WX ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH GEORGIA INITIALLY AND

THEN MAIN IMPACTS FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH

TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIP SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE NORTHWEST ZONES

AFTER 00Z TUE AS ISENTROPIC PROFILES INCREASE BUT DEWPOINTS REMAIN

IN THE UPPER TEENS...LIKELY PREVENTING PRECIP FROM REACHING THE

GROUND INITIALLY. WILL ALSO SEE SOME WET BULB EFFECTS DURING THIS

PERIOD WHICH SHOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INTO

THE LOW TO MID 30S ONCE PRECIP STARTS REACHING THE GROUND.

LOOKING AT PARTIAL THICKNESS AND TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY...GOING

WITH A MIX AT ONSET FROM LA GRANGE THROUGH ATHENS AND POINTS

NORTHWARD. EXPECT NORTHERN STRIP TO ABOUT TWO COUNTIES DEEP TO WET

BULB ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...GENERALLY

FROM JUST SOUTH OF ROME TO GAINESVILLE. EXPECTING GENERALLY UP TO

AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE PRECIP CHANGES TO ALL RAIN TUE

MORNING. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...EXPECTING UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW

WITH LIKELY ADVISORIES NEEDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE

AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. ALSO CONCERNED THAT IN AREAS OF THIS

NORTHERN TIER WHERE THE SNOW CHANGES TO RAIN THAT THERE WILL BE

JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF

FREEZING RAIN.

FOR THE ATLANTA METRO AND POINTS SOUTHWARD...AGAIN EXPECTING A MIX

AT THE ONSET WITH LITTLE TO IN MOST CASES NO ACCUMULATION

EXPECTED. A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER

ONSET WITH ONLY RAIN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY.

PRECIP TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT AFTER 18Z WITH LITTLE WRAP AROUND

POTENTIAL NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO NO POPS NEEDED FROM LATE

TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

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Yep, glad to see FFC and I on the same page with this one....Impressed with whoever is in charge of the forecast and AFD today. Looks like they actually looked at data for the entire forecast area.

A storm system will move into the state late Monday night bringing a winter mix of precipitation to the area. Extreme North Georgia should see mostly snow with areas along and south of interstate 85 east of Atlanta to interstate 20 west of Atlanta seeing a rain snow mix. Areas south of Columbus and Macon will see all rain. This system will continue to bring precipitation to North and Central Georgia through Tuesday afternoon.

imagefull5.gif

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GSP is not impressed

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AS OF 155 PM SUNDAY...A DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF

THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH A REGION OF

WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE/FORCING EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR

AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL

FORCING PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY

VEER AROUND TO THE WEST AND SW AS THE MOISTURE BAND MOVES ACROSS THE

AREA...RESULTING IN A DEPLETION OF LOW LEVEL FORCING. IN ADDITION...

THE AIR MASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL STILL BE

VERY DRY...AND IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR PRECIP TO SATURATE THE AIR

MASS SUFFICIENTLY FOR IT TO REACH THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THE

MODELS SUGGEST ALMOST NO PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE

NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND WHAT DOES MAKE IT INTO OUR

AREA WILL BE VERY LIGHT. WE WILL FEATURE LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR

SOUTHWEST MTNS AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY

MORNING....WITH POPS TAPERING OFF TO A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE

NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT.

IN AREAS WHERE PRECIP DOES DEVELOP...WET BULB EFFECTS WILL RESULT IN

A THREAT OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THAT

MOISTURE SHOULD BE OF SUFFICIENT DEPTH AT PRECIP ONSET SUCH THAT ICE

NUCLEI SHOULD BE ACTIVATED. IF THIS IS THE CASE...WE WILL PROBABLY

SEE PRECIP BEGINNING AS SNOW IN THE MTNS...WITH A LIGHT MIX OF

RAIN/SLEET/SNOW EVERYWHERE ELSE. VERY LIGHT ACCUMS WILL BE POSSIBLE

IN THE MTNS...WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE PIEDMONT/

FHILLS. ELSEWHERE. WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY TURN ALL PRECIP TO

RAIN BEFORE ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE MARKED BY A WARMING TREND

UNDERNEATH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MIN TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL BE

AROUND NORMAL...BUT DEVELOPING W/SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS IN

THE 50S AND 60S ON WEDNESDAY.

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FFC S.W.S.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

332 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>021-030-131200-

DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-

CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-

CHEROKEE-POLK-

332 PM EST SUN FEB 12 2012

...A WINTRY MIX EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE AREA THE LAST TWO DAYS

WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF

MOISTURE TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION

MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING

AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD

AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TO RESULT IN A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD

OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET AND RAIN. GENERALLY

AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY

NIGHT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL RAIN EARLY TUESDAY

MORNING.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SNOW AND SLEET

MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN

ACCUMULATIONS OF CLOSER TO 2 INCHES. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL

FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN JUST PRIOR TO THE TRANSITION

TO ALL RAIN WHICH WOULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SHOULD

INDICATIONS OF THESE AMOUNTS CONTINUE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

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