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February 5 potential storm


MJO812

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Strong chance that the GFS ensemble mean is out to lunch with a few shots of vodka too. For whatever reason they have been worse than awful lately.

people are too quick to forget 2/6/10. The gfs ens mean always smooths things out and make things appear more north and juicier than reality.

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people are too quick to forget 2/6/10. The gfs ens mean always smooths things out and make things appear more north and juicier than reality.

I honestly can't believe this storm is still being discussed as a threat. Synoptic meteorology over models. It was laid out nicely by tornadojay earlier and many others. CAA...NW flow..no moisture...the chances of anybody in our forum seeing a flake are incredibly low.

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I honestly can't believe this storm is still being discussed as a threat. Synoptic meteorology over models. It was laid out nicely by tornadojay earlier and many others. CAA...NW flow..no moisture...the chances of anybody in our forum seeing a flake are incredibly low.

this!

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I honestly can't believe this storm is still being discussed as a threat. Synoptic meteorology over models. It was laid out nicely by tornadojay earlier and many others. CAA...NW flow..no moisture...the chances of anybody in our forum seeing a flake are incredibly low.

It's an extremely unlikely threat. But the "synoptic" argument is actually based on the modeling that says we'll have CAA, a NW flow, no moisture etc... Sure, from a synoptic standpoint you can argue that the s/w trof axis is too far east (and it is) and that the baroclinic zone is offshore. But we're still mostly relying on the models to tell us what is synoptically possible.

If the s/w dives further SW and buckles the flow up the coast then all of a sudden we have WAA, SW flow, and moisture. Yes it's pretty clear that this is a miss, but you don't have to look at a forecast souding to see that. And you also can't point to a forecast sounding to prove why this is an impossible event. Because it's not impossible.

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I honestly can't believe this storm is still being discussed as a threat. Synoptic meteorology over models. It was laid out nicely by tornadojay earlier and many others. CAA...NW flow..no moisture...the chances of anybody in our forum seeing a flake are incredibly low.

absolutely agree.

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I agree that we should get another 1 or 2 small to moderate snowfalls. With a Feb snowfall at least the accumulations stick around for a while but the March accumulations melt away too quickly.

Wishful thinking!

in 2001-02 the AO was negative for about a month in December but went very positive in January 2002 and beyond...This year the AO was very positive and now changed to negative...la nina is stronger also..I'll settle for a Feb/Mar like 1975...we got 11" of snow and 8" on 2/12/75...April 75 was cold...we might be headed for a similar ending...

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in 2001-02 the AO was negative for about a month in December but went very positive in January 2002 and beyond...This year the AO was very positive and now changed to negative...la nina is stronger also..I'll settle for a Feb/Mar like 1975...we got 11" of snow and 8" on 2/12/75...April 75 was cold...we might be headed for a similar ending...

From your mouth to Gods ears. I remember Tex would point to the frigid air in Alaska and say it was on its way to New York City :).

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SREF went north again with the precip. . 10 line is close to the south shores.

http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M

From what I've observed with previous storms that went with more of an ESE type track, having precipitation in southern Michigan indicates that the area has a better chance of seeing snow. With this storm, precipitation doesn't make it into southern MI with most models. This one's definitely over for NYC, the most that could come out of it is probably mostly cloudy skies and some flurries to the south.

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in 2001-02 the AO was negative for about a month in December but went very positive in January 2002 and beyond...This year the AO was very positive and now changed to negative...la nina is stronger also..I'll settle for a Feb/Mar like 1975...we got 11" of snow and 8" on 2/12/75...April 75 was cold...we might be headed for a similar ending...

2/12/75 relived ====click on gordon barnes link

http://donswaim.com/wcbssoundpage.html#People

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