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Feb. 2-4 Potential Winter Storm


snowlover2

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If this (and some other models) were to work out this would be another very tough forecast for the DVN area. Would be another high gradient type situation like the hybrid clipper a few weeks back.

I_nw_g1_EST_2012020112_085.png

Certainly looks to be setting up that way right now cyclone. I'd probably pin the line between wet snow accumulations and nothing running from around Sterling IL-Clinton IA- Iowa City IA but any kind of degree of dynamic/evaporative cooling could play havoc with that line. Better chances still up around Freeport/Maqouketa/Cedar Rapids and points North. Will be fun to see how they lay out the forecast in the next 24-36hrs.

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Certainly looks to be setting up that way right now cyclone. I'd probably pin the line between wet snow accumulations and nothing running from around Sterling IL-Clinton IA- Iowa City IA but any kind of degree of dynamic/evaporative cooling could play havoc with that line. Better chances still up around Freeport/Maqouketa/Cedar Rapids and points North. Will be fun to see how they lay out the forecast in the next 24-36hrs.

Yeah, it's certainly looking like mainly a rain event for the QC proper. The gradient in accumulations will be fun to watch though. I'd be feeling pretty good about things up in Fort Dodge over towards Mason City/Waterloo. Dubuque always seems to be a snow magnet, so maybe they'll get in on this too lol.

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pretty sharp gradient on the northeast side and can really see the effect of the high which is stronger on this run of the NAM. 1040mb up in ND.

Only in this winter with a 1040 mb high to the north would it be such a struggle to get a nice band of snow on the northern edge in IL/IN :lol:eta60hr_sfc_ptyp.gif

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Only in this winter with a 1040 mb high to the north would it be such a struggle to get a nice band of snow on the northern edge in IL/IN :lol:

It's one thing or another! Too mild, too dry, wrong track, lol. Only this winter...!

Anyway, looks like the snow petters out at Dubuque.

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Coming out now. Precip really struggling to get north of the IL/WI line through 72.

Why is this the case so much where precip can barely make it out of the plains? Few years ago we saw so many cross country storms dump snow all over the place. Is it the cool thing to do nowadays for low pressures to blow their load where almost nobody lives?

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Why is this the case so much where precip can barely make it out of the plains? Few years ago we saw so many cross country storms dump snow all over the place. Is it the cool thing to do nowadays for low pressures to blow their load where almost nobody lives?

This system is running into a confluent flow along the East Coast, plus there is a Northern stream piece of energy that is diving into the NE which will help block/suppress this even more.

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Why is this the case so much where precip can barely make it out of the plains? Few years ago we saw so many cross country storms dump snow all over the place. Is it the cool thing to do nowadays for low pressures to blow their load where almost nobody lives?

Well a big reason in this case is that it runs into confluence courtesy of the NE US trough.

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Why is this the case so much where precip can barely make it out of the plains? Few years ago we saw so many cross country storms dump snow all over the place. Is it the cool thing to do nowadays for low pressures to blow their load where almost nobody lives?

Its a closed low, so it does not have the jet energy these storm tracks usually have

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I recognize the 850 temps isn't the end all be all for surface realization, but it is interesting that the NAM and now GFS keep pushing it further south into Central Indiana with this run, along with moisture.

LAF has 850 mb temps near/below 0C for the entire event on those 12z runs.  The problem is what's going on below 925 mb.  It will be tough but if we could somehow cool that layer another 1-2C then it would lead to wet snow.

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