Justin Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 If this (and some other models) were to work out this would be another very tough forecast for the DVN area. Would be another high gradient type situation like the hybrid clipper a few weeks back. Certainly looks to be setting up that way right now cyclone. I'd probably pin the line between wet snow accumulations and nothing running from around Sterling IL-Clinton IA- Iowa City IA but any kind of degree of dynamic/evaporative cooling could play havoc with that line. Better chances still up around Freeport/Maqouketa/Cedar Rapids and points North. Will be fun to see how they lay out the forecast in the next 24-36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Certainly looks to be setting up that way right now cyclone. I'd probably pin the line between wet snow accumulations and nothing running from around Sterling IL-Clinton IA- Iowa City IA but any kind of degree of dynamic/evaporative cooling could play havoc with that line. Better chances still up around Freeport/Maqouketa/Cedar Rapids and points North. Will be fun to see how they lay out the forecast in the next 24-36hrs. Yeah, it's certainly looking like mainly a rain event for the QC proper. The gradient in accumulations will be fun to watch though. I'd be feeling pretty good about things up in Fort Dodge over towards Mason City/Waterloo. Dubuque always seems to be a snow magnet, so maybe they'll get in on this too lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 FWIW...the LSX WRF is all snow for RFD/ORD. Has the band E-W along I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 NAM definitely slowing down over the past couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You can see there's a lot of dry air aloft to factor in just by looking at this image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 pretty sharp gradient on the northeast side and can really see the effect of the high which is stronger on this run of the NAM. 1040mb up in ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 pretty sharp gradient on the northeast side and can really see the effect of the high which is stronger on this run of the NAM. 1040mb up in ND. Only in this winter with a 1040 mb high to the north would it be such a struggle to get a nice band of snow on the northern edge in IL/IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Central Iowa 6-10" easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 NAM might be a good hit for Moline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Only in this winter with a 1040 mb high to the north would it be such a struggle to get a nice band of snow on the northern edge in IL/IN It's one thing or another! Too mild, too dry, wrong track, lol. Only this winter...! Anyway, looks like the snow petters out at Dubuque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Only in this winter with a 1040 mb high to the north would it be such a struggle to get a nice band of snow on the northern edge in IL/IN just south and southwest of Cyclone look decent this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 NAM does bring some elevated instability into the I-80 corridor of IA/IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'd rather have a winter storm but I could live with the NAM as it gives a legit shot at cold tstorms beyond 72 hours as the upper low approaches and the area of modest MUCAPE moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The NAM output for MLI is a hoot http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KMLI.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Wow, look at that 24" blob not too far from Baro. Noice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The NAM output for MLI is a hoot http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KMLI.txt Lol. Love the thundersnow with zero visibility at 18z. Ahh it's nice to dream lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 By superbowl impacts, I meant superbowl flight impacts. For people who probably aren't flying in. Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Seem like the CMC is frozen up tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Seem like the CMC is frozen up tonight! Coming out now. Precip really struggling to get north of the IL/WI line through 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Coming out now. Precip really struggling to get north of the IL/WI line through 72. Why is this the case so much where precip can barely make it out of the plains? Few years ago we saw so many cross country storms dump snow all over the place. Is it the cool thing to do nowadays for low pressures to blow their load where almost nobody lives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Coming out now. Precip really struggling to get north of the IL/WI line through 72. Never really makes it this far NE on this run. Rockford is about the eastern extent of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Why is this the case so much where precip can barely make it out of the plains? Few years ago we saw so many cross country storms dump snow all over the place. Is it the cool thing to do nowadays for low pressures to blow their load where almost nobody lives? This system is running into a confluent flow along the East Coast, plus there is a Northern stream piece of energy that is diving into the NE which will help block/suppress this even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Why is this the case so much where precip can barely make it out of the plains? Few years ago we saw so many cross country storms dump snow all over the place. Is it the cool thing to do nowadays for low pressures to blow their load where almost nobody lives? Well a big reason in this case is that it runs into confluence courtesy of the NE US trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Why is this the case so much where precip can barely make it out of the plains? Few years ago we saw so many cross country storms dump snow all over the place. Is it the cool thing to do nowadays for low pressures to blow their load where almost nobody lives? Its a closed low, so it does not have the jet energy these storm tracks usually have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 very preliminary snow map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Sheesh. The models are suddenly beginning to suppress this storm southward. The latest GFS and NAM show no precip at all north of southern Iowa. This is one scenario I had thought was off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I recognize the 850 temps isn't the end all be all for surface realization, but it is interesting that the NAM and now GFS keep pushing it further south into Central Indiana with this run, along with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I recognize the 850 temps isn't the end all be all for surface realization, but it is interesting that the NAM and now GFS keep pushing it further south into Central Indiana with this run, along with moisture. LAF has 850 mb temps near/below 0C for the entire event on those 12z runs. The problem is what's going on below 925 mb. It will be tough but if we could somehow cool that layer another 1-2C then it would lead to wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Wow, this storm is really looking surpressed today. Less of a snow maker, more of a rain maker for anybody in this region. Looks like the other models sided with the EURO somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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