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January 22-23 Potential Severe Weather


Hoosier

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Yeah, I just looked at the Euro on Wunderground, came here and thought WTF happened to the winter storm thread before realizing the subject of the thread changed. :whistle:

GGEM sorta looks like the Euro but it has the snow band farther north/west. What's done is done. Feel free to start a snow thread if you want.

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For those north of the Ohio River, it will be important to watch the temp/dewpoint trends tomorrow. Forecast soundings look like garbage but the magnitude of the low level inversion looks unrealistic given this setup and previous experience. Low level hodographs look impressive with significant turning in the lowest km and strong wind fields throughout the entire column. Looks very favorable for QLCS with strong gusts and potential quick spinup tors.

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From LMK AFD

A long line of showers and thunderstorms will develop to our west

during the evening and enter the LMK CWA somewhere around 11pm EST

Sunday night, and exit the east around 5 or 6am Monday morning.

Though there will be thunderstorm activity to our south, most of the

storms will be associated with the long squall line, as opposed to

storms spread throughout the Southeast, so thunder to our south is

not expected to be a major limiting factor in the storms here in the

Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

The heart of a very strong low level jet will cruise from middle

Tennessee to southern Michigan Sunday night with speeds of hurricane

force around 5k feet. Higher up, we will be beneath a coupled jet

structure with one jet max streaming northward over the Great

Lakes, and another flowing to the east from Texas to the Tennessee

Valley, resulting in strong upper level divergence over central

Kentucky and southern Indiana.

Storms are expected to be more surface based when they develop to

our west during the evening hours, and then become more elevated as

they enter the LMK CWA. However, the inversion is weak and fairly

low, especially in the west. Shear will be extremely strong

(possibly too strong?) and LFC heights will be low. So, damaging

winds and isolated tornado spin-ups still can`t be ruled out.

Severe weather will be possible just about anywhere, but the best

chances will be south of the Ohio River and west of I-65 between

11pm and 3am EST.

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Nice write up from the IND AFD

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY

NIGHT AS A VERY POTENT SYSTEM CURRENT ACROSS THE WEST SETS ITS SITES

ON THE MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS.

MODELS TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SURFACE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE 12Z CANADIAN

AND 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS LOOK TO BE THE BEST COMPROMISE. THE 12Z HAS

THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN IOWA AT 06Z MONDAY WHICH IS WELL

WITHIN THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST. THE

GFS BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 06Z

MONDAY AND SWEEPS IT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT. STRONG

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH NICE 250 MILLIBAR JET INTERACTION WITH

CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 JET ACROSS

QUEBEC AND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110 JET ACROSS ARKANSAS. IN

ADDITION...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONG ELONGATED OMEGA AND

SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTIVE OF SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT AND

PROGRESSION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG 1000-700

MILLIBAR VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO 50 KNOTS AND TURNING FROM SOUTHEAST

TO SOUTHWEST IN PLACE ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE

STORMS TO BE SEVERE PER THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK WHICH BRINGS A SLIGHT

RISK UP TO SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SCOUT LOW

TOPPED SUPERCELL STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE INVERSION WITH SUCH STRONG

SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. AT ANY RATE...LEFT A SMALL CHANCE OF

AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL

POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY

ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH. ALSO...DID NOT USE THE DIURNAL

TOOL FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE

STATIONARY OR SLOWLY RISE WITH SUCH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND

TEMPERATURES WILL BE STATIONARY OR FALLING MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE

WAKE OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CLOUDS ARE

EXPECTED TO BREAK UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE

BUILDS IN.

PREFER THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MORE THAN EARLIER EXPECTED

CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

ALSO WENT ON THE HIGH END ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARM AIR

ADVECTION CONTINUING AND CLOUDS HANGING AROUND OVERNIGHT.

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IWX

POTENT DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE SW CONUS WILL SUPPORT IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PERIOD. LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL PROVIDE THE BREADING GROUND FOR A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE AS THE SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NE ACROSS THE CONUS. IMPRESSIVE 100 KNOT PLUS MID LEVEL JET STREAK WITH CYCLONIC CURVING TENDENCIES WILL AID IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SFC LOW. PREFERRED TO CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WHICH NOW HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEM AND GFS /ALTHOUGH THE GFS RETAINS ITS USUAL FAST BIAS. IMPRESSIVE LL THETA-E ADVECTION WHICH WILL GET A HEAD START FROM A RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED GOMEX BL GIVEN A LACK OF A SIG FRONTAL INTRUSION THERE. HENCE...A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN AND ROBUST CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE REMAINS. ECMWF PROGS WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 20 MB RISE FALL COUPLET SUPPORTING ISALLOBARIC WIND VECTORS IN LINE WITH DEEP LAYER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL JET CORE IN EXCESS OF 90 KNOTS WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET IMPINGING ON THE SFC COLD FRONT...CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR QLCS THIN LINE DYNAMIC JET FORCED SQUALL LINES/AND APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE WITH H85 THETA-E CONTINUED TO BE PROGGED IN EXCESS OF 320K...RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR JANUARY.

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For those north of the Ohio River, it will be important to watch the temp/dewpoint trends tomorrow. Forecast soundings look like garbage but the magnitude of the low level inversion looks unrealistic given this setup and previous experience. Low level hodographs look impressive with significant turning in the lowest km and strong wind fields throughout the entire column. Looks very favorable for QLCS with strong gusts and potential quick spinup tors.

Indiana, the QLCS capital. It should be the new state logo.

I wonder what it would look like to see snow sucked up in a tube.

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IWX

POTENT DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE SW CONUS WILL SUPPORT IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PERIOD. LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL PROVIDE THE BREADING GROUND FOR A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE AS THE SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NE ACROSS THE CONUS. IMPRESSIVE 100 KNOT PLUS MID LEVEL JET STREAK WITH CYCLONIC CURVING TENDENCIES WILL AID IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SFC LOW. PREFERRED TO CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WHICH NOW HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEM AND GFS /ALTHOUGH THE GFS RETAINS ITS USUAL FAST BIAS. IMPRESSIVE LL THETA-E ADVECTION WHICH WILL GET A HEAD START FROM A RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED GOMEX BL GIVEN A LACK OF A SIG FRONTAL INTRUSION THERE. HENCE...A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN AND ROBUST CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE REMAINS. ECMWF PROGS WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 20 MB RISE FALL COUPLET SUPPORTING ISALLOBARIC WIND VECTORS IN LINE WITH DEEP LAYER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL JET CORE IN EXCESS OF 90 KNOTS WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET IMPINGING ON THE SFC COLD FRONT...CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR QLCS THIN LINE DYNAMIC JET FORCED SQUALL LINES/AND APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE WITH H85 THETA-E CONTINUED TO BE PROGGED IN EXCESS OF 320K...RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR JANUARY.

Weather porn. (at least for January)

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Indiana, the QLCS capital. It should be the new state logo.

I wonder what it would look like to see snow sucked up in a tube.

The snownado lol. It happens but they are usually waterspouts or snow devils if there's such a term. The snowpack dies off rapidly to my south and that's where the best tornado threat looks to be, but we will start the day with about 6" of snowpack, some of which may still be around by late Sunday.

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Slightly OT, but on the same subject of craziness. Has there ever been a tornado reported during a blizzard? It would obviously be an incredible rare event, maybe once in a hundred years, but I can't think of anything off of the top of my head that would prevent it from a theorhetical basis.

You would need some serious convective parameters. I think for a true supercell to form it would take much warmer low level temps to initiate an epic updraft. I'm not an expert but I think it would be tuff.

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There was a microburst associated with a nor'easter/blizzard that flattened acres of woods in my hometown of Southborough, MA.

Slightly OT, but on the same subject of craziness. Has there ever been a tornado reported during a blizzard? It would obviously be an incredible rare event, maybe once in a hundred years, but I can't think of anything off of the top of my head that would prevent it from a theorhetical basis.

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This is quite epic... sorry, its a bit clunky on the size of the animation.

post-2778-0-60393000-1327188716.gif

this run really showing a strong widespread damaging wind/QLCS event.

EDIT: I also apologize for the lack of time stamps on this. I should fix that. The line traverses Indiana from 5-9z.

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