Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yeah, I just looked at the Euro on Wunderground, came here and thought WTF happened to the winter storm thread before realizing the subject of the thread changed. GGEM sorta looks like the Euro but it has the snow band farther north/west. What's done is done. Feel free to start a snow thread if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 We could be getting into unusual territory if this event pans out on the northern end. There's only been a couple years that had multiple January severe weather events in Indiana and never a year with 2 separate tornado events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 For those north of the Ohio River, it will be important to watch the temp/dewpoint trends tomorrow. Forecast soundings look like garbage but the magnitude of the low level inversion looks unrealistic given this setup and previous experience. Low level hodographs look impressive with significant turning in the lowest km and strong wind fields throughout the entire column. Looks very favorable for QLCS with strong gusts and potential quick spinup tors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 This potential is bad ass. These set-ups can be particularly dangerous given the speed at which these winter systems move. Everything seems a little more amped. To have MUCAPE pushing 500 in late Jan is pretty sweet. Night Lightning illuminating a snow pack is total awesomeness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Southerly flow ahead of a monster cold front. This could get nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 From LMK AFD A long line of showers and thunderstorms will develop to our west during the evening and enter the LMK CWA somewhere around 11pm EST Sunday night, and exit the east around 5 or 6am Monday morning. Though there will be thunderstorm activity to our south, most of the storms will be associated with the long squall line, as opposed to storms spread throughout the Southeast, so thunder to our south is not expected to be a major limiting factor in the storms here in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The heart of a very strong low level jet will cruise from middle Tennessee to southern Michigan Sunday night with speeds of hurricane force around 5k feet. Higher up, we will be beneath a coupled jet structure with one jet max streaming northward over the Great Lakes, and another flowing to the east from Texas to the Tennessee Valley, resulting in strong upper level divergence over central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Storms are expected to be more surface based when they develop to our west during the evening hours, and then become more elevated as they enter the LMK CWA. However, the inversion is weak and fairly low, especially in the west. Shear will be extremely strong (possibly too strong?) and LFC heights will be low. So, damaging winds and isolated tornado spin-ups still can`t be ruled out. Severe weather will be possible just about anywhere, but the best chances will be south of the Ohio River and west of I-65 between 11pm and 3am EST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Nice write up from the IND AFD .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AS A VERY POTENT SYSTEM CURRENT ACROSS THE WEST SETS ITS SITES ON THE MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. MODELS TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES CONTINUE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SURFACE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE 12Z CANADIAN AND 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS LOOK TO BE THE BEST COMPROMISE. THE 12Z HAS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN IOWA AT 06Z MONDAY WHICH IS WELL WITHIN THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST. THE GFS BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 06Z MONDAY AND SWEEPS IT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH NICE 250 MILLIBAR JET INTERACTION WITH CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140 JET ACROSS QUEBEC AND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 110 JET ACROSS ARKANSAS. IN ADDITION...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONG ELONGATED OMEGA AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGESTIVE OF SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT AND PROGRESSION ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG 1000-700 MILLIBAR VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO 50 KNOTS AND TURNING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN PLACE ALSO SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE SEVERE PER THE SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK WHICH BRINGS A SLIGHT RISK UP TO SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY. COULD ALSO SEE SOME SCOUT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE INVERSION WITH SUCH STRONG SHEAR AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. AT ANY RATE...LEFT A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CHANCE POPS LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH. ALSO...DID NOT USE THE DIURNAL TOOL FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE STATIONARY OR SLOWLY RISE WITH SUCH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE STATIONARY OR FALLING MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BREAK UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. PREFER THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH MORE THAN EARLIER EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO WENT ON THE HIGH END ON TEMPERATURES WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND CLOUDS HANGING AROUND OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 IWX POTENT DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE SW CONUS WILL SUPPORT IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PERIOD. LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL PROVIDE THE BREADING GROUND FOR A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE AS THE SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NE ACROSS THE CONUS. IMPRESSIVE 100 KNOT PLUS MID LEVEL JET STREAK WITH CYCLONIC CURVING TENDENCIES WILL AID IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SFC LOW. PREFERRED TO CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WHICH NOW HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEM AND GFS /ALTHOUGH THE GFS RETAINS ITS USUAL FAST BIAS. IMPRESSIVE LL THETA-E ADVECTION WHICH WILL GET A HEAD START FROM A RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED GOMEX BL GIVEN A LACK OF A SIG FRONTAL INTRUSION THERE. HENCE...A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN AND ROBUST CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE REMAINS. ECMWF PROGS WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 20 MB RISE FALL COUPLET SUPPORTING ISALLOBARIC WIND VECTORS IN LINE WITH DEEP LAYER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL JET CORE IN EXCESS OF 90 KNOTS WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET IMPINGING ON THE SFC COLD FRONT...CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR QLCS THIN LINE DYNAMIC JET FORCED SQUALL LINES/AND APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE WITH H85 THETA-E CONTINUED TO BE PROGGED IN EXCESS OF 320K...RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR JANUARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 For those north of the Ohio River, it will be important to watch the temp/dewpoint trends tomorrow. Forecast soundings look like garbage but the magnitude of the low level inversion looks unrealistic given this setup and previous experience. Low level hodographs look impressive with significant turning in the lowest km and strong wind fields throughout the entire column. Looks very favorable for QLCS with strong gusts and potential quick spinup tors. Indiana, the QLCS capital. It should be the new state logo. I wonder what it would look like to see snow sucked up in a tube. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 IWX POTENT DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE SW CONUS WILL SUPPORT IMPRESSIVE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE PERIOD. LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL PROVIDE THE BREADING GROUND FOR A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE AS THE SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NE ACROSS THE CONUS. IMPRESSIVE 100 KNOT PLUS MID LEVEL JET STREAK WITH CYCLONIC CURVING TENDENCIES WILL AID IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET WILL COINCIDE WITH THE SFC LOW. PREFERRED TO CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WHICH NOW HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE GEM AND GFS /ALTHOUGH THE GFS RETAINS ITS USUAL FAST BIAS. IMPRESSIVE LL THETA-E ADVECTION WHICH WILL GET A HEAD START FROM A RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED GOMEX BL GIVEN A LACK OF A SIG FRONTAL INTRUSION THERE. HENCE...A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN AND ROBUST CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE REMAINS. ECMWF PROGS WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 20 MB RISE FALL COUPLET SUPPORTING ISALLOBARIC WIND VECTORS IN LINE WITH DEEP LAYER LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND PERPENDICULAR TO THE SFC COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL JET CORE IN EXCESS OF 90 KNOTS WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET IMPINGING ON THE SFC COLD FRONT...CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR QLCS THIN LINE DYNAMIC JET FORCED SQUALL LINES/AND APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE WITH H85 THETA-E CONTINUED TO BE PROGGED IN EXCESS OF 320K...RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR JANUARY. Weather porn. (at least for January) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 FWIW, the 18z RGEM goes ballistic. 982mb by 48hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Indiana, the QLCS capital. It should be the new state logo. I wonder what it would look like to see snow sucked up in a tube. The snownado lol. It happens but they are usually waterspouts or snow devils if there's such a term. The snowpack dies off rapidly to my south and that's where the best tornado threat looks to be, but we will start the day with about 6" of snowpack, some of which may still be around by late Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Here are several model predicted reflectivity images for tomorrow from multiple WRF runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 The fact that we are even talking about a second IN tornadic event this month following the episode of 1/17 is amazing. RGEM looks impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Slightly OT, but on the same subject of craziness. Has there ever been a tornado reported during a blizzard? It would obviously be an incredible rare event, maybe once in a hundred years, but I can't think of anything off of the top of my head that would prevent it from a theorhetical basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Slightly OT, but on the same subject of craziness. Has there ever been a tornado reported during a blizzard? It would obviously be an incredible rare event, maybe once in a hundred years, but I can't think of anything off of the top of my head that would prevent it from a theorhetical basis. You would need some serious convective parameters. I think for a true supercell to form it would take much warmer low level temps to initiate an epic updraft. I'm not an expert but I think it would be tuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Indiana, the QLCS capital. It should be the new state logo. I wonder what it would look like to see snow sucked up in a tube. You say that like you can actually see Indiana tornados. Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 There was a microburst associated with a nor'easter/blizzard that flattened acres of woods in my hometown of Southborough, MA. Slightly OT, but on the same subject of craziness. Has there ever been a tornado reported during a blizzard? It would obviously be an incredible rare event, maybe once in a hundred years, but I can't think of anything off of the top of my head that would prevent it from a theorhetical basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Here are several model predicted reflectivity images for tomorrow from multiple WRF runs. Nasty. Some of those showing a little cellular activity on the northern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 from 12z run will have a dbz loop in a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 So will Dubois Co see their decond tornado of 2012 tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 This is quite epic... sorry, its a bit clunky on the size of the animation. this run really showing a strong widespread damaging wind/QLCS event. EDIT: I also apologize for the lack of time stamps on this. I should fix that. The line traverses Indiana from 5-9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Michigan tornados almost always go unseen. We have too many trees and the tornados are always wrapped in rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Indiana, the QLCS capital. It should be the new state logo. I wonder what it would look like to see snow sucked up in a tube. What is a QLCS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 So will Dubois Co see their decond tornado of 2012 tomorrow? They had two confirmed tornadoes Monday. If there are any around they would be a good choice, I think they had 10 confirmed last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 What is a QLCS? Quasi Linear Convective System, AKA Squall Line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 What is a QLCS? Short for "Quasi-Linear Convective System". Essentially means a squall line, often with embedded circulations/LEWPs/supercells that can spawn tornadoes, and usually with a damaging wind threat as well, like a normal MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 What is a QLCS? Quasi linear convective system, which is basically a linear mode with embedded supercells and circulations which locally enhance the damaging wind and/or tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 So will Dubois Co see their decond tornado of 2012 tomorrow? actually 3rd, they had 2 the other day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 Do thunderstorms strengthen when then move over snowcover or weaken? Or is there no effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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