JSTWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yea i like the simplicity of this setup. You have cold air to the north, and a wave rolling along straight across. No worries about a northern branch lakes low, coastal redevelopment, phasing/timing, etc. With that clipper going through before this wave and some fairly decent cold.. there should be enough of a press from the cold to keep alot of the area mostly snow with this weekend wave by keeping that low under PA. I'd still watch the I-76 corridor and under for mixing. Hopefully things start heading the way of this nice GFS run. There'd likely be a ribbon of higher snow ratios along or just a hair above the I-80 corridor with that GFS solution as well. Yeah, the -3 @ 850 runs through us, and -8 along Route 6 Saturday morning. That should be good for snow in the areas you mentioned, with the higher ratios up north. I really hope it plays out this way - everybody gets at least some. And looking ahead.... interesting to see the PNA heading positive by Feb1, along with a -NAO and -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Can't see the 2m temps yet, but my UKMET site says its 0z run agrees with the GFS. 850's a tad warmer. Freezing line runs right along the Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 GGEM colder. Much.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Those GGEM plots are ballin. Just about got the whole state snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Those GGEM plots are ballin. Just about got the whole state snowing. Think it is off on qpf but, temps are nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Down to 19 already. Temps are falling nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 First episode of weather all access coming out tonight. Will post later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Can't wait till the meso's are in range. Think they will be valuable in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro colder than 12z but warmer than the UKMET,GFS,GGEM combo. 850 freezing line runs just North of the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro coming south again. Good signs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro colder than 12z but warmer than the UKMET,GFS,GGEM combo. 850 freezing line runs just North of the turnpike. Surface is all below freezing. We will be fine. Euro is always a bit warm. I'd go with the rest of the boat on this one. Euro has not been to great as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Euro colder than 12z but warmer than the UKMET,GFS,GGEM combo. 850 freezing line runs just North of the turnpike. It def seems way colder at the surface. even MDT never gets above freezing at 2m, getting to about 30ºF. AOO and UNV aren't even close (28ºF and 25ºF at their warmest) respectively at their warmest. Would imagine the 925 0ºC line is pretty low in the state, though i haven't seen it yet. But at any rate, I would say AOO and UNV would be safe bets for mostly sleet as a mixed p-type and it only gets to 0.6ºF at 850mb at UNV. CMC's 850 thermals looked like a pretty good blend of the Euro/GFS.. and that said blend would be what i would take right now. I'd say a high end advisory snow (4-6") for whoever gets all snow, 3-4 ish between I-76 and I-80 with some sleet mixture, and 1-3" with sleet and freezing rain issues under the turnpike (perhaps nosing north some in the LSV) is a pretty reasonable early stab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Episode 1 2 Parts. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 It's currently 19.5° off a low of 13.5°, cooler than I expected this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm liking the NAM more than the GFS for this event now. It Has more frozen precip in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z NAM has indeed backed off on some of the warm air advection aloft... not ideal for all snow just yet but higher levels colder on this run than 0z... having temps that borderline will make forecasts very difficult as well as preparing to treat roads/etc where some places may see snow and a mile or two away ice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 12z NAM has indeed backed off on some of the warm air advection aloft... not ideal for all snow just yet but higher levels colder on this run than 0z... having temps that borderline will make forecasts very difficult as well as preparing to treat roads/etc where some places may see snow and a mile or two away ice... Looking like a 2-4, maybe 3-6 sort of deal for the central/northern mountains. Kinda tricky to estimate amounts further south since they seem to be on the edge of a decent snowfall. The trend has been our friend, especially for those in the Harrisburg/York/Lancaster area who have been somewhat on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'll take GFS and run. 3-5" event for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wow! I am liking these trends A LOT for my area! Keep it up please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 ABC27 persision cast showed 5" for the Harrisburg area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This could be the event of the year for people living within 50 miles of the Mason-Dixon line. I am highly doubtful of this being a warning event, but advisory headlines probably coming out tomorrow morning. No way they go out today, since the event is still four periods away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 WOW at this model run...everyone take it and run now! http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 HRRR says clipper means business. Looks good on radar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 WOW at this model run...everyone take it and run now! http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 HRRR says clipper means business. Looks good on radar too. Does the clipper have an effect on Saturday's storm for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 WOW at this model run...everyone take it and run now! http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html This is the best scenario for Central PA, even for those living right on the Mason-Dixon line. 80% snow, and the rest sleet / freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Does the clipper have an effect on Saturday's storm for us? Yes brings in the colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 This could be the event of the year for people living within 50 miles of the Mason-Dixon line. I am highly doubtful of this being a warning event, but advisory headlines probably coming out tomorrow morning. No way they go out today, since the event is still four periods away. You make me smile I know I am technically MD but I do live north of Baltimore, so I figure Id come in here and see what you all had to say about the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 You make me smile I know I am technically MD but I do live north of Baltimore, so I figure Id come in here and see what you all had to say about the event. It's cool, we aren't the cut your head off if you post in a different region kind around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You make me smile I know I am technically MD but I do live north of Baltimore, so I figure Id come in here and see what you all had to say about the event. It's cool, we aren't the cut your head off if you post in a different region kind around here. what Zac said...stop in any time, good group in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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