EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 A forecast past 48 hour this winter has been nearly impossible. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 A forecast past 48 hour this winter has been nearly impossible. lol It's actually been ridiculously easy so far...RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's actually been ridiculously easy so far...RAIN. That's funny! It seems like we are still in the rain mode from last year. Just makes me wonder what Feb and March is going to bring. Probably snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 That's funny! It seems like we are still in the rain mode from last year. Just makes me wonder what Feb and March is going to bring. Probably snow. Indices looks decent for that. For now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looks like the snow tomorrow night looses some moisture trying to get in the Susquehanna valley. Sat. doesn't look to bad for north central pa. Maybe get our biggest storm so far. Was looking at the GFS soundings for Fri - Sat and they look warm? Edit: changed central Pa. to Susquehanna valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looks like the snow tomorrow night looses some moisture trying to get in central pa. Sat. doesn't look to bad for north central pa. Maybe get our biggest storm so far. Was looking at the GFS soundings for Fri - Sat and they look warm? No??? 66 01/21 06Z 25 15 161 11 0.01 0.00 540 556 -2.6 -18.9 1020.5 99 -SN 071SCT117 122BKN204 252BKN387 25 24 20.0 72 01/21 12Z 27 25 100 2 0.12 0.00 544 557 3.4 -19.1 1016.3 100 -PL 028BKN119 121BKN153 273BKN402 29 25 0.8 78 01/21 18Z 30 27 354 6 0.20 0.00 544 556 3.4 -19.1 1014.9 100 -FZRN 044BKN102 121BKN201 240OVC425 30 27 2.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 pawatch lives next to one of my favorite PA town names: Grimesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 No??? 66 01/21 06Z 25 15 161 11 0.01 0.00 540 556 -2.6 -18.9 1020.5 99 -SN 071SCT117 122BKN204 252BKN387 25 24 20.0 72 01/21 12Z 27 25 100 2 0.12 0.00 544 557 3.4 -19.1 1016.3 100 -PL 028BKN119 121BKN153 273BKN402 29 25 0.8 78 01/21 18Z 30 27 354 6 0.20 0.00 544 556 3.4 -19.1 1014.9 100 -FZRN 044BKN102 121BKN201 240OVC425 30 27 2.2 Thanks Zac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 pawatch lives next to one of my favorite PA town names: Grimesville. Jamie yep it's pretty close. You know someone that lives on that road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM/GFS comparison is a joke. GFS never gets above 31 here. NAM 41. God these models suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM/GFS comparison is a joke. GFS never gets above 31 here. NAM 41. God these models suck. makes ya wanna drink doesn't it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 What's that, a line of thunderstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Given the position of the high, I would expect the usual cold air damming locations to hold on to the cold air long than anticipated. Unless things begin to moderate a bit as we approach the event, it is likely areas along and north of the Chambersburg-Gettysburg-York-Lancaster do not get above freezing. QPF will remain below .5in most likely. NAM appears to be greatly underestimating the density of the cold pocket along and east of the Appalachians; entire low track looks too north also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Given the position of the high, I would expect the usual cold air damming locations to hold on to the cold air long than anticipated. Unless things begin to moderate a bit as we approach the event, it is likely areas along and north of the Chambersburg-Gettysburg-York-Lancaster do not get above freezing. QPF will remain below .5in most likely. NAM appears to be greatly underestimating the density of the cold pocket along and east of the Appalachians; entire low track looks too north also. Nam is on crack. Brings like a line of storms through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Approaching clipper should spread a widespread swatch of lights snows courtesy of WAA. Accumulations will remain a coating to 2in for most all areas in central Pennsylvania. 18z NAM now appears to come around to the idea of a few snow showers moving east of the mountains. Best area for accumulations in central Pennsylvania will be in the Laurel Highlands courtesy of orographic lift enhancement, which will be able to squeeze a bit more moisture out with higher ratios. My blog update and snow maps: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Blizzard92/comment.html?entrynum=216#commenttop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS brother (FIM) keeps it cool as well. More qpf though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 CTP seems to like the Saturday system for mostly frozen. This from the HWO for Cumberland County: HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 NAM/GFS comparison is a joke. GFS never gets above 31 here. NAM 41. God these models suck. Too far out for the nam. GFS/EC/JMA/GEM all look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Jamie yep it's pretty close. You know someone that lives on that road? No....for whatever reason the crazy PA town names fascinate me. I used to live in York and fairly close to the infamous Blueball/Bird-in-Hand/Intercourse/Paradise combo in Lancaster. In York County we had Pleasureville, Sunnyburn, and Porters Sideling. My number one favorite is Asylum. Imagine telling people you are from Asylum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 No....for whatever reason the crazy PA town names fascinate me. I used to live in York and fairly close to the infamous Blueball/Bird-in-Hand/Intercourse/Paradise combo in Lancaster. In York County we had Pleasureville, Sunnyburn, and Porters Sideling. My number one favorite is Asylum. Imagine telling people you are from Asylum. Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 No....for whatever reason the crazy PA town names fascinate me. I used to live in York and fairly close to the infamous Blueball/Bird-in-Hand/Intercourse/Paradise combo in Lancaster. In York County we had Pleasureville, Sunnyburn, and Porters Sideling. My number one favorite is Asylum. Imagine telling people you are from Asylum. Personally I'd rather live in hell, Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Lickdale, Lebanon County, is always a good one to get a laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Pleasant Gap is not to bad of a name....Not to mention Beaver Stadium. Jamie That is a nice Weis store they built off of exit 81 off of interstate 99......gas pumps even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Lickdale, Lebanon County, is always a good one to get a laugh. Haha that it is, right next to FIG. used to frequent the DQ there on drill weekends during the summer since the barracks up there aren't air conditioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 18Z GFS goes Namish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looks like the trolling continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Looks like the trolling continues. I think this weekend's event has more of a CAD look to it than this last one, so I wouldn't worry. That 1024 high north of NYS will keep things chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think this weekend's event has more of a CAD look to it than this last one, so I wouldn't worry. That 1024 high north of NYS will keep things chilly. Let's see what 0Z models have to say tonight. If they are warmer then..meh. I have more faith in this clipper. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Its getting to the point idc what it is....crippling ice....six ft of sleet.....just let it be wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Freezing rain is still a cold rain, therefore, DO NOT WANT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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