EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Its getting to the point idc what it is....crippling ice....six ft of sleet.....just let it be wintry precip. ^This. Just no plain rain please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Plain rain > zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Here are my maps for now. Weekend event to likely change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Plain rain > zr ZR will preserve any snow we get. Rain will not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just saw the 18z GFS. That's exactly opposite of how the on hour runs have been trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I have a bad feeling about both storms. Can anyone blame me though, this winter has been unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I have a bad feeling about both storms. Can anyone blame me though, this winter has been unbearable. You seem to have a bad feeling about every storm, haha. Although I can't blame you much considering how winter has gone so far. I think it's a good bet that we both get at least an inch on the ground at some point, from one or both storms. My best guess would be ~1" for Thurs and 2-3" with sleet as well this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM coming in a bit colder initially. Lets see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah NAM a little colder then warms hours 66 on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM catching on to CAD. Look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 NAM catching on to CAD. Look out. It'll get there. We have to see how tomorrow's clipper plays out, and how much llvl cold is put down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Clipper+Weekend snows on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Boooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Boooo Take 1-2" and some sleet/zr and be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Clipper+Weekend snows on NAM Snow depth takes into account what is currently on the ground as well (2-4" across much of N PA): http://raleighwx.ame...msnow_NE006.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Snow depth takes into account what is currently on the ground as well (2-4" across much of N PA): http://raleighwx.ame...msnow_NE006.gif Nothing in the central really or SE yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Down to 22 already. That is supposed to be the low. I think it will get below 20 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Should have a much clearer idea of this event after tonight's runs. -Was the 12z Euro just a off run (first run it went majorly warm in the upper levels) -Was the 18z GFS just an off run (off hour run that does not bode with its recent trends) Also the majority of the UKMETS free access variables (2m temp ect) will now be in range for the majority of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Flow looks even more flat than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS way!!! Colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wow nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 GFS way colder. All snow all the way down to the Mason Dixon line! woot woot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yea i'd take the GFS and run.. and everyone else probably should too. Think thats the first all snow event in PA inside of 60 hours i've seen since October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Oh this run is good! Let's hope this is not a big tease! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yea i'd take the GFS and run.. and everyone else probably should too. Think thats the first all snow event in PA inside of 60 hours i've seen since October. Yes please :scooter: Running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yea i'd take the GFS and run.. and everyone else probably should too. Think thats the first all snow event in PA inside of 60 hours i've seen since October. That statement in itself is just obscene. Hope it plays out. I think this clipper coming through is bringing a ton of cold air, and the gfs is catching on. Temps are below zero this evening in the upper midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 60 hrs out. Still plenty of time for the models to realize the Apps eat 90% of the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 60 hrs out. Still plenty of time for the models to realize the Apps eat 90% of the moisture. Haha. In all seriousness, the nao is heading south as well, so that should keep a limit on the northward track and influx of warmth. Plus this is not a big, wrapped up storm that would pull warm air up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Haha. In all seriousness, the nao is heading south as well, so that should keep a limit on the northward track and influx of warmth. Plus this is not a big, wrapped up storm that would pull warm air up Yeah that comes later. +10C 850s up into the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 That statement in itself is just obscene. Hope it plays out. I think this clipper coming through is bringing a ton of cold air, and the gfs is catching on. Temps are below zero this evening in the upper midwest. Yea i like the simplicity of this setup. You have cold air to the north, and a wave rolling along straight across. No worries about a northern branch lakes low, coastal redevelopment, phasing/timing, etc. With that clipper going through before this wave and some fairly decent cold.. there should be enough of a press from the cold to keep alot of the area mostly snow with this weekend wave by keeping that low under PA. I'd still watch the I-76 corridor and under for mixing. Hopefully things start heading the way of this nice GFS run. There'd likely be a ribbon of higher snow ratios along or just a hair above the I-80 corridor with that GFS solution as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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