MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Flakes have finally started here... The nam is a bit concerning for the weekend, but it's hard to go against the GFS/Euro 36 hours out. The negative trend in the nao should produce a system that resembles the global models. Just had a look at the 15z SREFs.. way better than 9z. Even MDT gets into the slug of half decent 4"+ probs that work its way thru the middle of PA. Still reflecting the NAM's insistence on more mixing though. Lots of sleet probs in the central counties under I-80 and most of the southern tier at/under the turnpike in probs mainly split between freezing rain and snow. The exception is that SW corner of PA off of the Laurels that looks to be mainly rain on the SREFs. Also, I wonder how much more this warm up next week gets dampened if we do manage to lay down a snowpack over most/all of PA with this weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nam looks okay to me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 For having peaks of only ~1000 feet above their surroundings, these Alleghenies are sure putting up a good fight against the snow to the west... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/RAD_CTP/animauto.html Otherwise, the Saturday system looks to be the best "storm" to hit the region all winter! (That's not saying much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Nam looks okay to me? Who cares it is the NAM. More interested in RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 For having peaks of only ~1000 feet above their surroundings, these Alleghenies are sure putting up a good fight against the snow to the west... http://www.meteo.psu...P/animauto.html Otherwise, the Saturday system looks to be the best "storm" to hit the region all winter! (That's not saying much) Give it an hr or so. It'll break over the mountains at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Snow is back to falling pretty lightly here, and the Allegheny front has become visible out the window once again currently. All this despite the radar making it look like Blair county is getting owned right now...heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Give it an hr or so. It'll break over the mountains at some point. The dry air isn't helping. It is pretty surprising how much the pretty low mountains here can affect the weather, like Jmister said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 CTP still thinks ice is the main issue for some reason. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 411 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012 PAZ024-033>035-200515- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0001.120121T0300Z-120121T1500Z/ CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD... MCCONNELLSBURG 411 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...JOHNSTOWN...SOMERSET AND BEDFORD. * HAZARD TYPES...WINTERY MIX...MAINLY FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. * TIMING...8 PM FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ICY ROADS AND SIDEWALKS LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Just had a look at the 15z SREFs.. way better than 9z. Even MDT gets into the slug of half decent 4"+ probs that work its way thru the middle of PA. Still reflecting the NAM's insistence on more mixing though. Lots of sleet probs in the central counties under I-80 and most of the southern tier at/under the turnpike in probs mainly split between freezing rain and snow. The exception is that SW corner of PA off of the Laurels that looks to be mainly rain on the SREFs. Also, I wonder how much more this warm up next week gets dampened if we do manage to lay down a snowpack over most/all of PA with this weekend system. I think that's getting picked up on too. There's plenty of snow to our west now, as well. The U.S. on a whole should have the most widespread snow cover of the winter (so far) after this weekend. All of the indicies are heading negative or neutral at the end of the month. Should preclude a cool and stormy pattern. I like the idea of snow and 30°, instead of snow and 15°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 CTP still thinks ice is the main issue for some reason. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 411 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012 PAZ024-033>035-200515- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0001.120121T0300Z-120121T1500Z/ CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD... MCCONNELLSBURG 411 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...JOHNSTOWN...SOMERSET AND BEDFORD. * HAZARD TYPES...WINTERY MIX...MAINLY FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. * TIMING...8 PM FRIDAY EVENING UNTIL 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...ICY ROADS AND SIDEWALKS LEADING TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. * WINDS...SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. they dont like the all / mostly snow here either i thought i had a chance at all snow for this but according to them not so much. Friday: A slight chance of snow after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming southeast. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Night: Snow, mainly after 7pm. Low around 20. East wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday: Snow and sleet before 10am, then freezing rain likely. High near 32. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 they dont like the all / mostly snow here either i thought i had a chance at all snow for this but according to them not so much. Friday: A slight chance of snow after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming southeast. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Night: Snow, mainly after 7pm. Low around 20. East wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday: Snow and sleet before 10am, then freezing rain likely. High near 32. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Must only be looking at the NAM or something. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 RGEM is moist and snowy. 10mm+ for a good part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yea I don't get that... at all. They must be riding the NAM/SREFs hard. But not even that guidance suggests anything other than all snow up where 2001kx is. I really don't even see high enough probs in the SREF to really think that widespread warning criteria ZR happens in the watch counties save for maybe the ridges in western Somerset county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yea I don't get that... at all. They must be riding the NAM/SREFs hard. But not even that guidance suggests anything other than all snow up where 2001kx is. I really don't even see high enough probs in the SREF to really think that widespread warning criteria ZR happens in the watch counties save for maybe the ridges in western Somerset county. well i guess time will tell...would be nice to pick up a solid 3-5" / 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yea I don't get that... at all. They must be riding the NAM/SREFs hard. But not even that guidance suggests anything other than all snow up where 2001kx is. I really don't even see high enough probs in the SREF to really think that widespread warning criteria ZR happens in the watch counties save for maybe the ridges in western Somerset county. Watches up for westmoreland and fayette ridges too. definitely riding the srefs... without a doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 18z NAM did shift slightly warmer than its 12z run...kinda odd cause I would expect it to start honing in on the solution the rest of the guidance suggests. Makes me think the SREF's and NAM are out to lunch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Southern folkes can take a sigh of relief (at least until 00z) because the 18z GFS stayed the same, if not a tad colder, as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Southern folkes can take a sigh of relief (at least until 00z) because the 18z GFS stayed the same, if not a tad colder, as 12z. 18z GFS almost unchanged from 12z like you said. Looks similar to the 12z EC, JMA and GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Here's CTP's initial maps on snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Still nothing in terms of snow here. Just wind-blown flizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Still nothing in terms of snow here. Just wind-blown flizzard. Coming down good there it looks like. http://www.mjpeg.net/webcams/11272 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 One thing that worries me is dry air. Euro plots suggest a lot of low level dry air through the Eastern slopes of the Apps (gets really bad throughout the SRV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Coming down good there it looks like. http://www.mjpeg.net/webcams/11272 Yeah it's more like light snow, now that it's dark it's hard to judge when you're inside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Coming down good there it looks like. http://www.mjpeg.net/webcams/11272 Yea I sat under that initial band of 30-35dbz for about an hour and had nothing but flurries with it. That moved on through and now getting more established moderate snowfall from the stuff enhancing from the west. Really kinda baffling why it started snowing and then just stopped when I was under returns as high as they were.. but its def snowing decently now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah it's more like light snow, now that it's dark it's hard to judge when you're inside Man, it's thumping back at my house 12 miles to your west: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yea I sat under that initial band of 30-35dbz for about an hour and had nothing but flurries with it. That moved on through and now getting more established moderate snowfall from the stuff enhancing from the west. Really kinda baffling why it started snowing and then just stopped when I was under returns as high as they were.. but its def snowing decently now. Yeah, it didn't do that in Port Matilda. I am still at work in the Rider Bldg....wife has an appointment. Kind of nervous about leaving here at 7 pm for the drive home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Man, it's thumping back at my house 12 miles to your west: Yeah there's a dusting on car tops now and on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yeah, it didn't do that in Port Matilda. I am still at work in the Rider Bldg....wife has an appointment. Kind of nervous about leaving here at 7 pm for the drive home. Oh wow, snow on the roads and everything.. maybe all that blew over my head on the way to your house haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Oh wow, snow on the roads and everything.. maybe all that blew over my head on the way to your house haha. I can't believe I'm missing it. I just looked and damn, it's really snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 I can't believe I'm missing it. I just looked and damn, it's really snowing. We'll get some of that soon hopefully. Even if it's a bit weaker it'll still let it pile up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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