NYC/Tri-State Area: Stumbling into January Disco

[MJO812]

Some members are probably more west than the op

[Jefflaw77]

the fact you haven't seen earthlight post in about 12 hours says it all.

There is nothing more true than that statement..

The next few weeks look like they're going to be quite boring and perhaps some snow showers here and there and pretty cold..

Heating bills will begin to skyrocket..

[TheTrials]

There is nothing more true than that statement..

The next few weeks look like they're going to be quite boring and perhaps some snow showers here and there and pretty cold..

Heating bills will begin to skyrocket..

gfs tried to create an alaskan block at the end, similar to what we saw last December, but still very little progress over in Greenland.

[mattinpa]

Some members are probably more west than the op

It's still a time frame to watch. It even might come later. IMO no reason to get too excited about a couple of good runs in this pattern or too down about some dry ones.

[bmc10]

Call me crazy, but I am somewhat optimistic about the 12z GFS. For the first time it has some sustained cold, not just transient shots post day ten. It also has some bouts of ridging into Greenland which allows for a more convoluted pattern and periods that resemble some weak blocking, but only temporary. Nice positive PNA and ridging out west. Although it doesn't show any real storms, this doesn't mean this pattern is atrocious. I think at the very least it is a step in the right direction and better then what we have been experiencing. Even if it is just a clipper, I think the upcoming pattern has a better chance of producing some snow then what we have seen the past month. We can only hope to see some high latitude blocking established down the road. But in the mean time, I think the pattern has the potential to at least bring some cold, and maybe a little snow.

[earthlight]

I agree. The 0z Euro has changed the trough evolution, from past runs. There is more shortwave energy now being handed off to into developing a ULL over Canada first. Just like what the GFS was yesterday. Except the GFS wasn't showing more shortwaves digging much after that. So the both models kind of shifted towards each other.

The problem with other shortwaves becoming a storm for us, is that either have to deal being sheared by Canadian ULL, or another shortwave on it's heels. I wouldn't be surprised if this threat gets pushed back a few days.

If the first upper level trough is deep like the 12z models are indicating, there will be most likely be no threat at all. That shortwave moves slowly over the Northeast and shuts off the potential for any further amplification. One scenario would be the GFS and Euro from last night, where the very strong energy from Canada still comes down and amplifies. But with the trough over the Great Lakes, it won't induce cyclogenesis until it is hundreds of miles out to sea.

It is a shame, because the GFS definitely trended towards the Euro in almost every regard, but that shortwave over the Central US is too deep. If you watch the ridge through 90 hours, look at how robust it has trended and look at the shortwave which races over the top and just screams down the east side of it towards the Plains. But the trough over the Central US almost absorbs it, so it cannot amplify farther south into the Southeast.

The one positive sign is that the forecast models are trending towards keeping that ridge in a fairly good position for a longer period of time. The 12z GFS at 180 hours still has an amplified ridge axis over the Rockies. So I wouldn't quite rule out a second threat, as you mentioned. The modeling has picked up on several very potent shortwaves which are forecast to come over the top of the ridge axis. You never know when one of these will amplify rapidly.

[tmagan]

Light sprinkles right now. I guess that is redundant.

[tmagan]

Look at it this way, some nice lake effect streamers for Ohio and upstate New York early next week.

[TheTrials]

vortimus maximus dropping down at 144 as the ridge tries re-establishes itself, lets see what happens here. Looks too flat, but nothing else to look at right now

[ag3]

-20 850's approaching NYC at hour 144.

[mattinpa]

Looks like the Euro just shows cold. We'll have to hope it lasts long enough for another chance. Models seem locked on a dry solution now at least for the 7-day period.

[atownwxwatcher]

Looks like the Euro just shows cold. We'll have to hope it lasts long enough for another chance. Models seem locked on a dry solution now at least for the 7-day period.

It definitely has a cold look to it but it also has the low pressure but it is well off shore because of the axis of the trough...

Plenty of time to see if we can get something more favorable

[earthlight]

The GEFS continue to hint at pattern changes through Day 10. These changes rolled forward would likely indicate a pattern that would be at least moderately more favorable for our area. This isn't saying an awful lot considering where we are now, and were we have been over the past several weeks. Still, we are beginning to see some signs of change with the MJO impulse which is now forecast to make a move towards Phases 6 and 7 and has been trending stronger over the past few days. Such an event would likely help our pattern out.

There are a few things to notice on the GEFS 500mb height anomaly maps which are pictured below. The image at the top is the 90 hr 12z GFS 500mb height anomalies. Circled are two very poor features for a favorable winter pattern on the East Coast. First, the presence of a large Aleutian/Alaskan Vortex. Second, a large displacement of the Polar Vortex over Greenland and the west/central NAO regions. These two features have worked against us over the last several weeks.

The image below is the GEFS 500mb height anomalies around Days 8-10. The changes can be noted rather easily---the Aleutian low is in a better position (almost a split-flow aleutian type trough as it rebuilds in time, but the ridge remains persistent farther south/east) and there is even a ridge which trying to build towards the West Coast. Although this is temporarily causing negative departures over the immediate west coast of the US -- it is a feature that would help us down the road. Finally, we can see that the large vortex over Greenland and the Davis Straight is gone and has been replaced by slight to moderate positive height anomalies (+6 to +12 dm) and there is a more robust ridge building over the Central and Eastern NAO regions (+12 to +18 or in some instances greater than +18dm...very strong signal for this time frame). It remains to be seen if this ridging will be able to build farther west and buckle the pattern--but this is a good sign as we have not seen anything like this in several weeks. Similar changes were also present on the Euro last night at 00z.

[mattinpa]

It definitely has a cold look to it but it also has the low pressure but it is well off shore because of the axis of the trough...

Plenty of time to see if we can get something more favorable

In a +AO and NAO, are chances of it coming further west greater?

[ag3]

Surface temps are in the teens for NYC for middle of next week. Single digits for the burbs.

[bluewave]

Surface temps are in the teens for NYC for middle of next week. Single digits for the burbs.

That would give us our first -10 or lower daily departure since the 18th.

[ag3]

That would give us our first -10 or lower daily departure since the 18th.

Looks like it lasts a few days as well. Pretty much from Monday night through the entire week.

And then a 1-2 day warm period with a Lakes cutter, before the PNA ridge swings through again and we get very cold again past day 10.

[Stormlover74]

Yeah though beyond day 7 is anyone's guess at this point. Wasn't this same model basically showing a blizzard for us just yesterday for next week at this time?

Looks like it lasts a few days as well. Pretty much from Monday night through the entire week.

And then a 1-2 day warm period with a Lakes cutter, before the PNA ridge swings through again and we get very cold again past day 10.

[NorEaster27]

Looks like it lasts a few days as well. Pretty much from Monday night through the entire week.

And then a 1-2 day warm period with a Lakes cutter, before the PNA ridge swings through again and we get very cold again past day 10.

Thats the pattern change, cold -> warm with rain -> back to cold

[jrodd321]

So im guessing theres no storm at all whatsoever on the euro?

[atownwxwatcher]

So im guessing theres no storm at all whatsoever on the euro?

It is there OTS

[CooL]

So im guessing theres no storm at all whatsoever on the euro?

pretty much yeah. Just a big ole broad trough with no amplification. Very cold and dry.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The pattern for a while probably will be cold followed by rain followed by more cold. It's very boring and depressing for winter weather lovers. I would look for a pattern change IMO toward the middle or end of January hopefully but this is more out of my gut than any concrete reasoning as to why it should happen.

WX/PT

[bluewave]

Looks like it lasts a few days as well. Pretty much from Monday night through the entire week.

And then a 1-2 day warm period with a Lakes cutter, before the PNA ridge swings through again and we get very cold again past day 10.

It's pretty remarkable that NYC has only had 3 negative departure days for the whole month so far.

[Stormlover74]

And tomorrow which will be quite cold may end up just finishing normal or maybe a degree or two below at most. There have also been at least 8 days that were +10 or greater.

It's pretty remarkable that NYC has only had 3 negative departure days for the whole month so far.

[Jefflaw77]

The pattern for a while probably will be cold followed by rain followed by more cold. It's very boring and depressing for winter weather lovers. I would look for a pattern change IMO toward the middle or end of January hopefully but this is more out of my gut than any concrete reasoning as to why it should happen.

WX/PT

A pattern as you describe above is about as bad as it gets...

[rossi]

FROM dt Facebook-

Quote

‎***ALERT *** 12z euro DOES have the JAN 3-4 Low.. BUT it is off the se conus coast. The Model shows the Low a bit closer than the 0z european model but it is still too far off the coast. However the important thing is that it still a threat... it would not take Much of a shift for the low to come much closer to the coast . In addition the wind and cold looks impressive as well easily the coldest air the entire east coast has seen since last winter

UNQUOTE

[bluewave]

And tomorrow which will be quite cold may end up just finishing normal or maybe a degree or two below at most. There have also been at least 8 days that were +10 or greater.

The warmth has really been in control since the colder weather at the end of October and beginning of November.

[Thunderdude]

The worst pattern to me is that extreme arctic cold comes then it time of a storm system it would take the wrong track and give most areas rain. If ain't going to snow I rather for it to stay warm but I would like a more strong ridge out west with moderating arctic air hitting our but with a blocking pattern and in time for storms enough cold air will remain in place to support a good snow event.

[Neblizzard]

The worst pattern to me is that extreme arctic cold comes then it time of a storm system it would take the wrong track and give most areas rain. If ain't going to snow I rather for it to stay warm but I would like a more strong ridge out west with moderating arctic air hitting our but with a blocking pattern and in time for storms

enough cold air will remain in place to support a

good snow event.

I agree that's why I rather have a decent pacific and an amazing Atlantic pattern. Sure it's going to get cold but no blocking in the Atlantic makes things that much harder...