TheTrials Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The 0z ECM also had a large SE ridge in the longer range: sadly, its on the euro ensembles today too, but may get beat down quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The 0z ECM also had a large SE ridge in the longer range: After the 2 day cold snap next week, I see no reason why the SE ridge doesn't rebuild, especially if the +PNA is broken down. If we loose the PNA, the pattern become a full torch and back into the 50s+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 After the 2 day cold snap next week, I see no reason why the SE ridge doesn't rebuild, especially if the +PNA is broken down. If we loose the PNA, the pattern become a full torch and back into the 50s+ Its really more of transient ridges. The euro warms up day 7-10 but would go back into a cold snap as the next PNA ridge appoaches. Not a good pattern at all, but its very possible we can time out a vort to drop down into the ridge and give us a perfectly timed snow event. The 1st ridge early next week still has a chance of snow showers and a possible weak coastal towards day 6-7. There are so many pieces of energy diving in, its impossible for any model to correctly predict anything past day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 se ridge begins to disappear as the next ridge builds in, its very transient. even 95-96 had se ridges from time to time, the key is to not have them for weeks on end like we have seen. the pattern overall still looks much better, even though that might not be saying much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Perhaps the only highlight this winter will be an over performing cold air mass with perhaps a few snow showers or squalls as well. Otherwise the whole pattern remains wretched with a likely warm up a few days after the cold snap, a major warm up if the Euro is correct actually. Even a quick inch in a squall would be a blessing at this point so that's all we have to go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 se ridge begins to disappear as the next ridge builds in, its very transient. even 95-96 had se ridges from time to time, the key is to not have them for weeks on end like we have seen. the pattern overall still looks much better, even though that might not be saying much True, and you actually NEED a little SE Ridge to get a snowstorm, to help prevent the lows from sliding straight East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 se ridge goes bye bye and a nice gradien pattersn sets up on euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 also some really nice ridging bulding into alaska this is all way far out so its very smoothed, but looks fine after that mini se ridge noreaster27 was crying about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The 0z ECM also had a large SE ridge in the longer range: It's been showing that trough entering the West coast that pumps up the SE ridge, since 0z Wednesday: 0z Wed run 12z Wed run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 also some really nice ridging bulding into alaska this is all way far out so its very smoothed, but looks fine after that mini se ridge noreaster27 was crying about Any signal for the day 6 shortwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Any signal for the day 6 shortwave? negative ghost rider but that means very little since they supported the OP the other day on that meg bomb that gave Mt. Earthight 45 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 This will make AG3 happy, after the SE Ridge ends around 240 hours, we def. transition to a very 93-94 type pattern with lots of impulses on the cold side of the gradient this goes from 240 hours through the end of the ensemble run which is 360 hours and at the end the gradient is still shifting south which means the pattern is still establishing itself.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The 12z Euro ensembles. I don't see a huge difference between OP and Ensemble mean with SE ridge. The SE ridge is quite as strong on ensemble mean. But I wouldn't expect to be at this range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 se ridge begins to disappear as the next ridge builds in, its very transient. even 95-96 had se ridges from time to time, the key is to not have them for weeks on end like we have seen. the pattern overall still looks much better, even though that might not be saying much PV of death keeps spinning over Alaska throughout the latest couple of Euro runs. That to me pretty much equals the most horrid possible winter pattern over the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 This will make AG3 happy, after the SE Ridge ends around 240 hours, we def. transition to a very 93-94 type pattern with lots of impulses on the cold side of the gradient this goes from 240 hours through the end of the ensemble run which is 360 hours and at the end the gradient is still shifting south which means the pattern is still establishing itself.. Where do you see the ensemble run out to 360hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The 12z Euro ensembles. I don't see a huge difference between OP and Ensemble mean with SE ridge. The SE ridge is quite as strong on ensemble mean. But I wouldn't expect to be at this range: PV of death keeps spinning over Alaska throughout the latest couple of Euro runs. That to me pretty much equals the most horrid possible winter pattern over the East. I have the full euro ensembles all the way to 360 hours with spaghetti plots and all sorts of stuff. The SE ridge goes away and we are in a cold pattern with plenty of impulses. I don't see any big storm patterns but the death vortex and se ridge are not game players in the stuff i am looking after the small SE ridge disappears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I do not know but this just does not look like a good look at the 850 mb temp anomalies on the ensemble means.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I do not know but this just does not look like a good look at the 850 mb temp anomalies on the ensemble means.. if you read my post above, that fits in well with the SE Ridge which develops for a few days at that time. we cool down right after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 So you think we're going to get near freezing with -20C 850 temps? No I meant to say that the highs will stay below freezing for a day with lows mainly in the teens with some single digits well inland NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 if you read my post above, that fits in well with the SE Ridge which develops for a few days at that time. we cool down right after I have done that but if i am reading it correctly you are suggesting a "gradient" pattern which if i remember the last time the ECM was showing a "gradient" pattern you were one of the people that were saying that the area does not do well in a "gradient" pattern but now you seem more excited? So what is the difference between this "gradient pattern" being shown and the last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I have done that but if i am reading it correctly you are suggesting a "gradient" pattern which if i remember the last time the ECM was showing a "gradient" pattern you were one of the people that were saying that the area does not do well in a "gradient" pattern but now you seem more excited? So what is the difference between this "gradient pattern" being shown and the last? Generally we don't fair well, but the pattern I am looking at, albeit on a smoother ensemble way out in time, would be fine for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 No I meant to say that the highs will stay below freezing for a day with lows mainly in the teens with some single digits well inland NW. Should stay below both Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday has a chance also, but most likely has mid to upper 30's as highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 No I meant to say that the highs will stay below freezing for a day with lows mainly in the teens with some single digits well inland NW. Highs probably won't hit 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Highs probably won't hit 25. Very much doubt it. The Euro is already modifying the cold and Upton has highs in NYC in the 30's during the 2 or 3 day "cold" snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Very much doubt it. The Euro is already modifying the cold and Upton has highs in NYC in the 30's during the 2 or 3 day "cold" snap. Models are showing highs in the 20's. Not really sure what your seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Very much doubt it. The Euro is already modifying the cold and Upton has highs in NYC in the 30's during the 2 or 3 day "cold" snap. Upton is a joke IMO, and they were +4 daytime highs for me today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Models are showing highs in the 20's. Not really sure what your seeing. HIghs might not get out of the teens in the City on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 HIghs might not get out of the teens in the City on Tuesday. Yeah if anything models are trending colder but teens may be too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Yeah if anything models are trending colder but teens may be too cold. Low to mid 20's seem reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 18z GFS develops a weak low just east of LI at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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