DaculaWeather Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I have to agree with you Larry, '82 was friggin awesome unless you were one of the people that was stranded in a location you didn't want to be in. I had to park my car on the Cattahoochie River bridge next to I-285 and go another several miles just to get to my apartment where I lived. The 93 blizzard I was living in Dacula in Gwinnett County and we had more than 10" there. Incredible lightning and winds to go along with the snowfall. The January '10 storm here was awesome because of the cold and ice that was left on top of the snow. I was out of work for that entire week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 So, the SOI is giving increasingly solid support for a weak Nino fall/winter peak over moderate or strong Nino, whose chances are dwindling. I have strong's as well as high end moderate's chances near 0. I have the chance for a low end moderate (+1.1 to +1.2 fall/winter ONI peak) as low. I continue to predict a weak Nino fall/winter peak per ONI: i.e., no higher than +1.0 trimonthly peak. GA, what do you think the chances are of this ending up in Positive Neutral territory? I suspect low chance, but we also have the issue of NOAA reporting tri-monthlies seemingly cooler than what an average of the 3-month weekly ENSO values would suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 I miss Bill Schubert's fishing forecasts. Regarding S/IP, I have the 1/1982 snowjam (actually a 7" S/IP/ZR combo) as my #1 (though I had mixed emotions as I was literally in the terrible traffic jam due to a four hour early and sudden start). Impactwise, it has to be near the top for anything since the 1960's due to a combo of the preceding record cold (my first ever below 0), the unexpected early start/resulting horrible traffic mess, the long duration (various forms of precip over 3 days from two different Gulf lows producing 7" of a mix), and the length of time needed to melt the bulk of it due to continued very cold and there being IP and ZR solidifying it. Getting to miss over 3 days of school made it really fun! I have the 2/1979 4.2" IP as #2. At that time, I couldn't believe that IP could accumulate significantly, much less 4.2"!! It took forever to melt and it was my first sig. ATL S or IP winter storm. It was supposed to be mainly S. not IP, as I recalled, and I recall being very disappointed when it turned from S to IP within one hour. Little did I know, ATL was going to be turned into an IP paradise. I have the 3/1993 Storm of the Century blizzard as #3. I got ~~8" in Sandy Springs. It was my one and only (to this point) blizzard, my first thundersnow, and it was in mid March! I have the 1/1988 4.2" IP at #4 and the 1/1987 ~5" S as #5. I have the 3/1980 2.7" S as #6, the 2/2010 3.6" S as #7, and the 3/2009 4.2" S as #8. I wasn't in ATL for the 3/1983 7.9" S, the 1/2002 4.6" S, and the 1/2011 4.4" S. So, I couldn't rate them. However, I'm guessing that 3/1983 would have been #3 had I experienced it, especially because of it being a spring storm and the heaviest since 1/1940! You've got some great storms there, Larry! You know as bad as things are here for regularity, we do get the occasional great storm. And, I guess you are right about rarity making them better My #1 is that sleet storm in the late 50's, then 2/79, then 1/88, which was a monster down here, then, maybe snojam, then 10 3/4 snow in mby in the 90's here (maybe 96?), the blizzard, and then any number of snows come in next. I've often gotten the biggest snows in March but they don't last, so I hardly count them, lol. Great for the surprise factor though. For shere impact, the two big sleets, 79 and 88, and then the Blizzard, which didn't give me all that much snow, but gave me whiteout conditions with the snow I got, and the 73 z monster, which I hated every minute of, but knew I was experiencing something amazing, and very rare. And a zrain down here in the 80s that trashed everything, left us without electricity for 10 days, and was only marginally less bad than the 73 horror. And for wonder, and impossibility....ColdRain's Christmas snow. Made me believe in flying pigs! Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 GA, what do you think the chances are of this ending up in Positive Neutral territory? I suspect low chance, but we also have the issue of NOAA reporting tri-monthlies seemingly cooler than what an average of the 3-month weekly ENSO values would suggest. griteater, I've been forced to take a drastic measure: take the three month average of the weeklies and use that to approximate the "official" ONI until the ONI inconsistency issue itself, is resolved. This is drastic for me because I have been using the ONI table for the better part of ten years to determine "official" ENSO phases and NOAA has been using it for "official" determinations. I am going with +0.3 for MJJ and +0.5 for JJA for the ONI. My educated guess is that JAS will end up ~+0.7 based on the weeklies. In order for me to count this as a weak Nino instead of neutral positive, there will need to be at least five trimonths in a row of +0.5+ as per the NOAA requirement. With JAS, we'll have two. Barring something totally unforeseen, ASO will be the third. I'm confident based on the models as well as history that SON and OND will also be +0.5+...that would make it an official weak Nino as far as I'm concerned assuming they don't exceed +1.0 as I expect. My decision is largely based on a telecon I had this morning with NOAA. They are pretty much now using the weeklies and ignoring the ONI and recommended I do the same. I documented this earlier today in the main ENSO thread: "Folks, This morning, I called CPC/NOAA and talked to them about the past two very low ONI #'s in relation to the weeklies. They are fully aware of the inconsistencies and are investigating. One of the problems is that the ONI is based on ERSST data, which comes from the NCDC in Asheville. OTOH, the weeklies are based on OISST data, a different dataset. They acknowledged that the ONI is deceivingly low vs. the weeklies and that they are currently basing their weekly Mon. updates mainly on the weeklies, not the ONI, because they feel that the weeklies are "much more reliable than the ONI" right now. One reason they don't just want to stop using ERSST is because it goes back so far in time...to the late 1800's and they actively use it going back to 1950. In contrast, the OISST data goes back only to 1980 for monthly and 1990 for weekly. They are already in touch with the NCDC about the disconnect and feel it will take a good bit of time to diagnose the situation. They aren't even sure there actually is an actual data problem with ERSST as it may be a statistical/interpolation/rounding issue being the main cause. I plan to follow up with them in about a month." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Awesome follow-up on this GA. Don't they know that the world will end if we don't have accurate ENSO readings...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 11, 2012 Share Posted September 11, 2012 Going to watch the polar stratosphere this fall closely. A colder stratosphere with stronger polar vortex usually means a +AO(no blocking),what we had last year.Last year's was unusually strong and temps were below average,our fate was sealed basically after Thanksgiving.La Nina didn't help either though. Watching the QBO also.This can determine the strength of the vortex whether in westerly/easterly. JMA started updating Sept 1st,right now we're about average on temps up there but started out a little above so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Bob, were you in Atl. in 79? Or was it snow where you were? I'm frankly surprised to find someone else have a sleet storm as one of their top favorite storms People here think I'm crazy for loving sleet over snow, and many of my favorite storms were sleet. Tony I was in middle school for 2/1979 and I was in highschool for 3/1983.... The sleet storm was simply amazing. It was like the whole world had an old bean bag dumped on it so for a budding young meteorologist it was remarkable...Then when everything refroze the next night the sledding the next morning was simply phenomenal...Yes, I had a Flexible Flier in Atlanta growing up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I was in middle school for 2/1979 and I was in highschool for 3/1983.... The sleet storm was simply amazing. It was like the whole world had an old bean bag dumped on it so for a budding young meteorologist it was remarkable...Then when everything refroze the next night the sledding the next morning was simply phenomenal...Yes, I had a Flexible Flier in Atlanta growing up... Dang... I MUST be getting old! I had a Flexible Flyer too when I was growing up in Nashville. We use to block of the roads with snow so the mailman couldn't get through so we could sled. Needless to say, he didn't like us too much. But I remember in the late 70's when I was in Knoxville, we had a long drought from snow, you had to go up in the mountains to find any but it seems like it rarely snowed in Knoxville around that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I miss Bill Schubert's fishing forecasts. Regarding S/IP, I have the 1/1982 snowjam (actually a 7" S/IP/ZR combo) as my #1 (though I had mixed emotions as I was literally in the terrible traffic jam due to a four hour early and sudden start). Impactwise, it has to be near the top for anything since the 1960's due to a combo of the preceding record cold (my first ever below 0), the unexpected early start/resulting horrible traffic mess, the long duration (various forms of precip over 3 days from two different Gulf lows producing 7" of a mix), and the length of time needed to melt the bulk of it due to continued very cold and there being IP and ZR solidifying it. Getting to miss over 3 days of school made it really fun! I have the 2/1979 4.2" IP as #2. At that time, I couldn't believe that IP could accumulate significantly, much less 4.2"!! It took forever to melt and it was my first sig. ATL S or IP winter storm. It was supposed to be mainly S, not IP, as I recalled, and I recall being very disappointed when it turned from S to IP within one hour. Little did I know, ATL was going to be turned into an IP paradise. I have the 3/1993 Storm of the Century blizzard as #3. I got ~~8" in Sandy Springs. It was my one and only (to this point) blizzard, my first thundersnow, and it was in mid March! I have the 1/1988 4.2" IP at #4 and the 1/1987 ~5" S as #5. I have the 3/1980 2.7" S as #6, the 2/2010 3.6" S as #7, and the 3/2009 4.2" S as #8. I wasn't in ATL for the 3/1983 7.9" S, the 1/2002 4.6" S, and the 1/2011 4.4" S. So, I couldn't rate them. However, I'm guessing that 3/1983 would have been #3 had I experienced it, especially because of it being a spring storm and the heaviest since 1/1940! It is close between those two...Larry. I know I enjoyed 82 very much also...I managed to "strand" myself at my best friend's house for a few days. I missed 87 and 88 while in college. 93 was a bit of a pain in that I had to work...One of the scariest drives of my life was driving up Cobb Parkway trying to get home that Saturday afternoon. Jan 2011 here in Chatt was by far the most enjoyable snow...I measured 8-11" across my yard/deck and it took two days to clear a path down my driveway. Certainly Christmas 2010 was a very nice treat too even though it was gone the next day. As to the IP vs Snow argument...4"+ IP in one fell swoop vs 10-12 of snow...I just think the experience is so unusual that it is a worthy tradeoff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Had? Had? I can't believe you two. I still have my flexi, in fact I'm getting ready to do the annual sand down the runners and hope ritual I have the only shin length flexi in the world, I expect. Great for tandem sliding. Amazing how that little extra girl weight adds to the speed. Of course, now I weight as much alone as me and the girls used to, lol. Oh, well, I still go fast But it has always taken sleet to keep the runners up off the pavement.....or snow with a crust of z/ip. My biggest regret when I lived in Atl. was never sliding LakeForest where it comes into the Roswell area. Big, long hill I always imagined would be a great run. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 Had? Had? I can't believe you two. I still have my flexi, in fact I'm getting ready to do the annual sand down the runners and hope ritual I have the only shin length flexi in the world, I expect. Great for tandem sliding. Amazing how that little extra girl weight adds to the speed. Of course, now I weight as much alone as me and the girls used to, lol. Oh, well, I still go fast But it has always taken sleet to keep the runners up off the pavement.....or snow with a crust of z/ip. My biggest regret when I lived in Atl. was never sliding LakeForest where it comes into the Roswell area. Big, long hill I always imagined would be a great run. T I went away to college and when I came home it was gone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I bought mine at that specialty store at the corner of Cheshirebridge and Monroe, I guess when I got out of the army, in 69 or 70. They used to hang em up on the outside wall whenever Guy Sharpe would start talking snow I got the only full length one they had, and I've ever seen. One of my most prized possessions. They'll have to pry it from my cold hands with the jaws of life, if I ever mess up and hit the bridge abuttment, lol. I keep it in a time lock vault in my secret underground workshop, where I've perfected a snow sled using skis and plywood. It works great in snow, except for one little draw back. It goes where it wants to T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 I bought mine at that specialty store at the corner of Cheshirebridge and Monroe, I guess when I got out of the army, in 69 or 70. They used to hang em up on the outside wall whenever Guy Sharpe would start talking snow I got the only full length one they had, and I've ever seen. One of my most prized possessions. They'll have to pry it from my cold hands with the jaws of life, if I ever mess up and hit the bridge abuttment, lol. I keep it in a time lock vault in my secret underground workshop, where I've perfected a snow sled using skis and plywood. It works great in snow, except for one little draw back. It goes where it wants to T MIne was under the Christmas tree circa 1973 or 4...So it saw plenty of use comparatively speaking...I do wish I still had it. Guy Sharpe! Too bad he turned a little strange toward the end with that whole P&G business...I got to meet him when I was still in college. One of the nicer celebrities I have ever met. This is unfortunately straying way off topic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 12, 2012 Share Posted September 12, 2012 MIne was under the Christmas tree circa 1973 or 4...So it saw plenty of use comparatively speaking...I do wish I still had it. Guy Sharpe! Too bad he turned a little strange toward the end with that whole P&G business...I got to meet him when I was still in college. One of the nicer celebrities I have ever met. This is unfortunately straying way off topic... Off topic?? Haha! There aint nothing on topic about the last two pages of this thread! But while we're off topic (or back on topic...now I'm confused), my favorite ever, and I doubt it'll ever be beat (which is kind of sad in a way) is the surprise January 25 blizzard of 2000. 20+ inches imby. Absolutely and simply the most amazing weather event I've ever experienced. The perfect snowstorm. Total perfection. And honorable mention has to go to the January 2005 1 inch flizzard that hurled Raleigh into chaos and gridlock. A colleague of mine was sitting in traffic for 14 hours after leaving for work to go home -- a trip that usually takes about 30 minutes. It is amazing what weather can do, even in its least intense state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 We need another winter like last year winter. Warm and Dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 We need another winter like last year winter. Warm and Dry. I don't know if you're serious or joking, but we most certainly don't. Especially the latter, it's dry enough as it is around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 MIne was under the Christmas tree circa 1973 or 4...So it saw plenty of use comparatively speaking...I do wish I still had it. Guy Sharpe! Too bad he turned a little strange toward the end with that whole P&G business...I got to meet him when I was still in college. One of the nicer celebrities I have ever met. This is unfortunately straying way off topic... Well, I'll help that by asking you what in house models they might have been using back then? I used to get my weather from airport weather reports for pilots early in the morning on PBS, and my secondary was main channel tv weather. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 We need another winter like last year winter. Warm and Dry. We need a really cold winter to kill off some of the insects! And plenty of rain atleast, not sure why but buford has been getting little if no rain for the last few weeks. Seem like it always falls apaprt and the reforms on the east side of us. We had a major rain just up the road maybe week before last and the rain cut off about 1/2 mile up the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Off topic?? Haha! There aint nothing on topic about the last two pages of this thread! But while we're off topic (or back on topic...now I'm confused), my favorite ever, and I doubt it'll ever be beat (which is kind of sad in a way) is the surprise January 25 blizzard of 2000. 20+ inches imby. Absolutely and simply the most amazing weather event I've ever experienced. The perfect snowstorm. Total perfection. And honorable mention has to go to the January 2005 1 inch flizzard that hurled Raleigh into chaos and gridlock. A colleague of mine was sitting in traffic for 14 hours after leaving for work to go home -- a trip that usually takes about 30 minutes. It is amazing what weather can do, even in its least intense state. 2000 was great (#2 to me) but I did like the January 7th 1996 storm the best. 14 hours of sleet for a total of near 6" (lived in Wake Forest at time). It amazed me to walk around my yard and be six inches taller. One week after the storm there was still only one lane open on Capital Blvd (south towards Raleigh); and about the same time (5 days after the sleet), we got a major freezing rain event (1/2”) to turn everything into a sold block of ice. #1) 1/7/1996 -- 6 inches of sleet http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19960107.gif 1/12/1996 -- ½ inch of freezing rain http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19960112.gif #2) 2000 -- nearly two feet, and yes this was amazing http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Checkout Nino write-up from poster HM: http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/09/why-are-winter-outlooks-for-el-nino-so.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 We need another winter like last year winter. Warm and Dry. I find myself forced to agree with this one. A good cold snap or two would be nice to kill off bugs (as mentioned above), but otherwise, keep it warm, at least down here. Y'all up north can keep your cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I think yall are very much in the minority!I'd bet 98% of people on here want cold and snowy,including me.the more cold ,the merrier! I would like the set up over Alaska last winter,to somehow set up over the SE ,that would be awesome!! I find myself forced to agree with this one. A good cold snap or two would be nice to kill off bugs (as mentioned above), but otherwise, keep it warm, at least down here. Y'all up north can keep your cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 Can someone judge this worm I found today and tell me what significance it has...mild...cold...etc...? Here's a morning pic of the fog burning off at Wilkes Community College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 That's a caterpillar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 That's a caterpillar. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 ... Just flexing my biology muscles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I think yall are very much in the minority!I'd bet 98% of people on here want cold and snowy,including me.the more cold ,the merrier! I would like the set up over Alaska last winter,to somehow set up over the SE ,that would be awesome!! Based on my obs., It is clear that most SE posters' #1 winter priority is heavier than average snow. The cold is quite secondary for most of these posters as many have admitted. They seem to want the cold only to enhance the snow chances and to lengthen the amount of time on the ground. These folks would rather have mild and snowless rather than cold and snowless. Some like ZR, but not nearly as many as like snow. A few like IP as much as, if not more than, snow. Personally, I'm content with just about anything: snow, IP, ZR, cold, and even the nice SE US warmups between the cold. The only kind of winter I don't like is a mild one with no wintry precip. because that's boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aubighitter Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I believe that is wooly wormus Maximus. The darker the fur the colder the winter is the saying I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I think I've heard the more black the colder the winter will be.the 3 bands are suppose to be the beginning,middle,and end of winter.so if you go by the wooly worm in the picture,that would be more warm than cold for this winter!? Can someone judge this worm I found today and tell me what significance it has...mild...cold...etc...? Here's a morning pic of the fog burning off at Wilkes Community College. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 13, 2012 Share Posted September 13, 2012 I think I've heard the more black the colder the winter will be.the 3 bands are suppose to be the beginning,middle,and end of winter.so if you go by the wooly worm in the picture,that would be more warm than cold for this winter!? Yes, and that woolly bear caterpillar says this winter will be cold, warm, cold. Much better than the all brown most were sporting last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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