Part II, Thanksgiving week transient cold shot and the pattern beyond

[KEITH L.I]

can you give us some details?

so funny the weeklies did not have that cool pool cut off last week..they had a total blowtorch..which means of course they are unreliable..any model is past day 7

[OSUmetstud]

Torch, torch, torch.

And that ugly cut-off next week in the OH/TN river valleys.

I said details?

[ORH_wxman]

so funny the weeklies did not have that cool pool cut off last week..they had a total blowtorch..which means of course they on unreliable..any model is past day 7

A cutoff like that is something not seen in the global long wave pattern....it doesn't help us one iota. Its a smaller scale anomaly that lasts a few days over the SE US.

[Damage In Tolland]

Let's remember that in late Oct/ early Nov the weeklies had this week and next below normal..LOL

[KEITH L.I]

A cutoff like that is something not seen in the global long wave pattern....it doesn't help us one iota. Its a smaller scale anomaly that lasts a few days over the SE US.

well why would it be seen?..there are so many variables..still don't believe a model can get down the total wave pattern and jet stream 3 to 4 weeks in advance..but that's me..many Mets here believe it can..oh well..if it's right..we are in deep do do

[ORH_wxman]

Let's remember that in late Oct/ early Nov the weeklies had this week and next below normal..LOL

They had it around normal, maybe slightly below, since then there was a fundamental change in the NH pattern that got all of us concerned. They have looked pretty accurate for the most part since that step change.

[roardog]

I realize this is a New England Forum but I'm curious to what general pattern the weeklies are showing. There are lots of ways for it to be hideous in New England. Is it showing the same general pattern that we had through November?

[Damage In Tolland]

They had it around normal, maybe slightly below, since then there was a fundamental change in the NH pattern that got all of us concerned. They have looked pretty accurate for the most part since that step change.

That's the point..they have been highly erratic..and anyone using them to determine the pattern past week 2 should be very careful. They have been very unstable the entire autumn...and i';d bet verification scores past week 2 are low

[KEITH L.I]

They had it around normal, maybe slightly below, since then there was a fundamental change in the NH pattern that got all of us concerned. They have looked pretty accurate for the most part since that step change.

they just blew week 2 from last week..it had a blowtorch for the Cental US..it's gonna snow next week in parts of the midwest..I'm sorry..they were wrong last week

[ORH_wxman]

they just blew week 2 from last week..it had a blowtorch for the Cental US..it's gonna snow next week in parts of the midwest..I'm sorry..they were wrong last week

You can believe what you want, but we will see the Nov 25-Dec 2 verification when it comes out.

You are choosing to pick little chinks in the armor to disprove that they got the pattern wrong. Just because a storm cuts off and gives a relatively small region some snow, does not mean its 7 day mean pattern was off. It showed abysmal heights over AK which will verify. It showed little cold air over the plains which will verify...it showed the lack of cross polar flow which will verify.

The weeklies are meant to use as a tool to get a general idea of the large scale pattern, not to try and forecast if someone will see a snowstorm 13 days out. Of course there will always be some shorter scale variance that you can try and use to disprove the larger point, but that logic fails when you look at the whole N Hemisphere.

Week 4 is always quite volatile so I wouldn't put much stock into it, but I guarantee you the week 2 map will look pretty solid once we come to verification.

[Amped]

Torch, torch, torch.

And that ugly cut-off next week in the OH/TN river valleys.

If you like wind and costal flooding it's a good pattern. It even looks a little like November 1950, if only there was any cold air.

[Damage In Tolland]

If you like wind and costal flooding it's a good pattern. It even looks a little like November 1950, if only there was any cold air.

Just when i think your posts can't possibly get any worse...they do

[Ginx snewx]

Torch, torch, torch.

And that ugly cut-off next week in the OH/TN river valleys.

Huge exaggeration , week 2 is not a torch in New England

[CoastalWx]

You can believe what you want, but we will see the Nov 25-Dec 2 verification when it comes out.

You are choosing to pick little chinks in the armor to disprove that they got the pattern wrong. Just because a storm cuts off and gives a relatively small region some snow, does not mean its 7 day mean pattern was off. It showed abysmal heights over AK which will verify. It showed little cold air over the plains which will verify...it showed the lack of cross polar flow which will verify.

The weeklies are meant to use as a tool to get a general idea of the large scale pattern, not to try and forecast if someone will see a snowstorm 13 days out. Of course there will always be some shorter scale variance that you can try and use to disprove the larger point, but that logic fails when you look at the whole N Hemisphere.

Week 4 is always quite volatile so I wouldn't put much stock into it, but I guarantee you the week 2 map will look pretty solid once we come to verification.

Sorry, but I LOL'd.

Anyways, Week 3 is beefier with the AK vortex now and a mid west ridge develops in the central part of the country. A very positive NAO tries to lower heights in se Canada, so we'll have to watch that.

week 4 doesn't look awful imo. It does sort of lose the Aleutian ridge that last week had, but this time the colder anomalies in Canada are a little further east towards Hudson Bay. Canada is a freezer. If we had blocking...Oh boy. 850 temps avg +1.2C which isn't bad in December. Probably suggests swfe.

[Snowstorms]

You can believe what you want, but we will see the Nov 25-Dec 2 verification when it comes out.

You are choosing to pick little chinks in the armor to disprove that they got the pattern wrong. Just because a storm cuts off and gives a relatively small region some snow, does not mean its 7 day mean pattern was off. It showed abysmal heights over AK which will verify. It showed little cold air over the plains which will verify...it showed the lack of cross polar flow which will verify.

The weeklies are meant to use as a tool to get a general idea of the large scale pattern, not to try and forecast if someone will see a snowstorm 13 days out. Of course there will always be some shorter scale variance that you can try and use to disprove the larger point, but that logic fails when you look at the whole N Hemisphere.

Week 4 is always quite volatile so I wouldn't put much stock into it, but I guarantee you the week 2 map will look pretty solid once we come to verification.

Despite the temperature anomalies not so great on the Euro weeklies, how about the precip? Is it near normal or wet across the East?

Until the MJO moves into a favorable phase which isnt likely till about Dec 15th-20th or so IMO I dont see any sustained cold across the East other than a day or two featuring below normal temps. This pattern sucks! With that Huge AK Vortex showing very little signs of dissipating and continuing +EPO and no blocking I dont think the pattern can get any worse along with the strong SE Ridge. The atmosphere has alot of similarities to a typical Nina pattern.

Even if we have a neutral PNA and -EPO along wtih a slightly positive NAO/AO, we can still manage some decent cold anomalies across the GL's region/NE but the Pacific doesnt show signs of "healing" with the Jetstream pattern being too zonal. The temp. ridging acorss Labrador in Early December is mostly a result of the ULL furthur south and I dont see any decent blocking developing, atleast through the next 2-3 weeks.

What are your thoughts? When do you think the pattern will become favorable for sustained cold across the East.

[CT Rain]

Huge exaggeration , week 2 is not a torch in New England

Disagree. It's a warm pattern. A cut off to our south and west is going to pump moisture up here and result in torch like mins. So, no, it may not be 65 during the day but depatures to me look to easily fall in the torch category.

And week 3 is very warm and week 4 is warm too!

[CoastalWx]

The euro ensembles still have ridging in the nw Pac which tries to get colder air in here. I think in the first week of December we may get screwed by swfe as it still looks mild imo, but perhaps the 1st wave of colder weather occurs later that week.

[CT Rain]

Sorry, but I LOL'd.

Anyways, Week 3 is beefier with the AK vortex now and a mid west ridge develops in the central part of the country. A very positive NAO tries to lower heights in se Canada, so we'll have to watch that.

week 4 doesn't look awful imo. It does sort of lose the Aleutian ridge that last week had, but this time the colder anomalies in Canada are a little further east towards Hudson Bay. Canada is a freezer. If we had blocking...Oh boy. 850 temps avg +1.2C which isn't bad in December. Probably suggests swfe.

the week 4 anomalies I'm seeing have positive anomalies through a big chunk of Canada with negative anomalies over Greenland and the NW territores.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Euro weeklies are hideous through week 4.

Some negative temp departures south of us under that monster cold pool/ULL week 2.

Awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I wonder how many more weeks before the faithful come to the dark side. I am hoping we see some type of epic mega storm in mid December (doesn't have to be here or if it is here snow) to help blow up this pattern once and for all. Many times in my youth long before we were waiting 5 minutes to look at a set of boobs on AOL I remember the stubborn patterns required something historic to break.

I also remember a particular year where everyone said it was going to be super cold and snowy in the 80s I think. I cut the back page of the USA Today each day when they had those big color temp maps. Each night the weathermen here said "next week it's going to get cold" and after about 35 days I had a great flip book of torch images from the USA Today. I think one of the highlights that winter was a snow squall.

Right now I'm guessing early January or very late in December and all we're going to see is a few weeks of more favorable winter weather at a time.

[Damage In Tolland]

The euro ensembles still have ridging in the nw Pac which tries to get colder air in here. I think in the first week of December we may get screwed by swfe as it still looks mild imo, but perhaps the 1st wave of colder weather occurs later that week.

See how Ryan always finds negatives and no positives?

[CoastalWx]

the week 4 anomalies I'm seeing have positive anomalies through a big chunk of Canada with negative anomalies over Greenland and the NW territores.

They had 850 temps averaged near +1.2C with height anomalies that weren't terribly above normal...at least I thought.

[ski MRG]

I wonder how many more weeks before the faithful come to the dark side. I am hoping we see some type of epic mega storm in mid December (doesn't have to be here or if it is here snow) to help blow up this pattern once and for all. Many times in my youth long before we were waiting 5 minutes to look at a set of boobs on AOL I remember the stubborn patterns required something historic to break.

I also remember a particular year where everyone said it was going to be super cold and snowy in the 80s I think. I cut the back page of the USA Today each day when they had those big color temp maps. Each night the weathermen here said "next week it's going to get cold" and after about 35 days I had a great flip book of torch images from the USA Today. I think one of the highlights that winter was a snow squall.

Right now I'm guessing early January or very late in December and all we're going to see is a few weeks of more favorable winter weather at a time.

LOL, what a ray of sunshine.

[CoastalWx]

See how Ryan always finds negatives and no positives?

Well the first week looks meh to me, to be honest. Maybe there is a shot at snow, but it looked a little mild.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well the first week looks meh to me, to be honest. Maybe there is a shot at snow, but it looked a little mild.

The constant negativity just gets tiresome is all. At least you and Will mention some positives that you see.

[CT Rain]

The constant negativity just gets tiresome is all. At least you and Will mention some positives that you see.

I've been saying that a brief cool down and snow threat is there. SWFE signal is there.

[ski MRG]

The constant negativity just gets tiresome is all. At least you and Will mention some positives that you see.

It's reverse weenieism.

[CT Rain]

They had 850 temps averaged near +1.2C with height anomalies that weren't terribly above normal...at least I thought.

Oh yeah I gotcha... I thought you meant Canada was balls cold. My bad.

[Damage In Tolland]

I've been saying that a brief cool down and snow threat is there. SWFE signal is there.

I'd rather a miller b..we'll end up screwed from a SWFE

[CT Rain]

I'd rather a miller b..we'll end up screwed from a SWFE

Yeah. I think people need to understand... like Will posted earlier... though we're very down and negative about the pattern... the mets in here understand that a crappy looking pattern can deliver some snow if things work out just right. It can happen. Just not that easy for it to happen.

Ginx is getting all hot and bothered that no one is talking about a closed low coinciding with a szygy and a -3 departure day. No one really cares about that though. For day 10-20 we're not talking about specific threats but rather the hemispheric pattern which just sucks right now. I've said for weeks I don't mind going through this now... much better in late Nov than late Dec.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah. I think people need to understand... like Will posted earlier... though we're very down and negative about the pattern... the mets in here understand that a crappy looking pattern can deliver some snow if things work out just right. It can happen. Just not that easy for it to happen.

Ginx is getting all hot and bothered that no one is talking about a closed low coinciding with a szygy and a -3 departure day. No one really cares about that though. For day 10-20 we're not talking about specific threats but rather the hemispheric pattern which just sucks right now. I've said for weeks I don't mind going through this now... much better in late Nov than late Dec.

Part of the problem is that all of us are hanging on each ensemble run/each weekly run. I think it would benefit everyone..(probably esp. me)..if we took a few steps away and analyzed things again in a few days. Looking for changes every 12 hours has proven to be fruitless and frustrating.