Indystorm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It will be interesting to see if the forecast zr amounts verify for the Louisville area and environs....With a total up to .9 of an inch I would think that would meet ice storm criteria. But I guess since a mix is expected they go with a Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 00z NAM is a good bit drier than the juiced-up 18z. I'm not surprised it backed down somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is a quote from Beau Dodson's evening update on his daily analysis regarding icy conditions down his way. At 5:15 PM Cape Girardeau County, Missouri is reporting black ice with cars moving at about 2 mph. Several wrecks have been reported. Roads appear wet but are actually covered in black ice. Extremely dangerous driving conditions. Freezing drizzle and freezing rain has also started to fall over far western Kentucky. Again, numerous accidents have been reported over southeast Missouri from a light glaze of freezing drizzle. I have light drizzle or freezing drizzle here at my place in Massac County - as of 5 pm. Fulton and Graves County Kentucky are also reporting black ice. Don't be fooled by what appears to be wet roadways. It may be ice. The area of precipitation continues to expand and grow over southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, southern Illinois. Radar is a bit deceptive - it is not picking up all of the precipitation that is actually falling (it is too light). However, don't be fooled by these light precipitation returns - freezing drizzle has caused roadways to become extremely slick over southeast Missouri and far southwest Kentucky (as mentioned above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 PIA reporting light snow right now. HUF also reporting light snow with the returns well to the south of here. 0z NAM looks like it may have about doubled the QPF here from the 12z run...from 0.06" to something around 0.10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 PIA reporting light snow right now. HUF also reporting light snow with the returns well to the south of here. 0z NAM looks like it may have about doubled the QPF here from the 12z run...from 0.06" to something around 0.10". Extracted data is actually .18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Extracted data is actually .18 Make that tripled then. Whatcha think, 1-2" sound good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Started as ZR here when we were supposed to have 2 inches of snow first, not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Started as ZR here when we were supposed to have 2 inches of snow first, not a good sign. That sucks. From KIND's recent update, sounds like the models may have been originally a bit too cold/wrong in its orientation early on. BASED ON HOW PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EVOLVING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST COUPLED WITH PROGGED THICKNESSES OFF THE MODELS...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE SNOW/FREEZING RAIN LINE MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND TOO FAR NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THICKNESSES SUGGEST MORE OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE. UPPER AIR OBSERVATION FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS ALREADY SHOWS AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER CLOSE TO FREEZING. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ORIENTATION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE AS IS FOR NOW...BUT WILL SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THE SOUTHWEST. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW PRECIPITATION TYPE EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Freezing rain line looks to be farther North than what a lot of the NWS offices are forecasting, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Make that tripled then. Whatcha think, 1-2" sound good? 2-4"...probably at the lower end though. The NAM was a dry holdout for us and it has been looking better the past couple runs. More importantly, the current trends don't really support a horrendous outcome/near shutout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 2-4"...probably at the lower end though. The NAM was a dry holdout for us and it has been looking better the past couple runs. More importantly, the current trends don't really support a horrendous outcome/near shutout. I guess I'll just back to my original first call of 1-3". Lock the 1", feel good about the 2", and pray for the 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Freezing rain line looks to be farther North than what a lot of the NWS offices are forecasting, A little OT but your tornado pic from June 5 is on LOT's top 10 weather events: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=61175&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 A little OT but your tornado pic from June 5 is on LOT's top 10 weather events: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=61175&source=0 Love that photo. And congrats Brandon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It started as snow here, but very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 East of Whiteland, IN appears to be all snow so far. It started only moments ago, and we have a light coating already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Love that photo. And congrats Brandon. Thanks! That is one chase I will never forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Sleet was quick and still mixed, but definitely hitting freezing rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Snowing quite heavily right now. I might actually pickup 4 inches from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Freezing rain currently here in Evansville. Just had our first wave of moderate rain roll through. Cars are already getting a glaze to them... another wave setting up just to the SW and ready to roll through... current temperature at 28°F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Oh... Not good. Trees in my neighbors yard already have about 0.1" ice on them :\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1004 PM CST WED DEC 15 2010 .UPDATE... SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF AREA NORTH OF HWY 34... THOUGH DRY AIR HOLDING ON ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST IL KEEPING SNOW AT BAY THERE FOR TIME BEING. QUICK LOOK AT DATA THIS EVE COUPLED WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORTS SHIFTING HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS A LITTLE FURTHER SWWD... AND ANTICIPATE HIGHER TOTALS IN CORRIDOR FROM INDEPENDENCE AND VINTON SEWD TO NEAR THE QUAD CITIES... WHERE LIKELY 3 TO UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NOT OUT QUESTION AS MAIN FORCING OVERLAID WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC PROFILE FOR PDS OF MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES OVRNGT. DRY AIR WILL CUT INTO AMOUNTS HEADING EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THIS MAIN CORRIDOR. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THERE IS SOME CONCERNS WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN... AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME LIGHT GLAZING JUST SOUTH OF CWA IN QUINCY IL. AREA JUST SOUTH OF CWA APPEARS TO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ICING BEING NEAR 850 MB WARM FRONT BUT CANT RULE OUT IN THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLY NEEDING ADVISORY. NOT CONFIDENT THOUGH ON EXTENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN SPS FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NIU Weather radar indicating zr over southern IL. sw IN, and Kentucky at 10:30 p.m. central time. http://weather2.admin.niu.edu/webgifs/NIUIL_36.GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Zip. Snow line has creeped up to about 10 miles to the south and halted almost completely. Am beginning to think I will be lucky to get a dusting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Oh... Not good. Trees in my neighbors yard already have about 0.1" ice on them :\ Make matters worse, the new data is coming in colder... RUC is also holding the 32°F south of the Ohio River through 3:00 PM CST. This went from not good to bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Make matters worse, the new data is coming in colder... RUC is also holding the 32°F south of the Ohio River through 3:00 PM CST. This went from not good to bad... ick. The radar presentation is interesting and we were in a bit of a break now... and my deck is covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Looking forward to another 4-8 incher here in Cincy! Not bad for my first winter back in the city so far this year...By the way still about 2 inches on the ground from the last system haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It's been snowing for over 4 hours now and we have a whopping 0.7" so far. Flake size has been around salt size since it started. The heavier band to the southwest is trying to get here, but it's fighting the drier air. This clipper pales in comparison to the one a few weeks ago. I think we'll be doing good if we manage to squeeze 2 inches out of this thing. Note to self, next time the NAM is unusually dry compared to the GFS within 24hrs, disregard the overly wet GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Light snow has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Freezing rain here in Metro Louisville. Starting to see ice form on everything from the roads to trees and power lines. This storm is not looking to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Latest Surface Temperature and Radar Mosaic overlay... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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