November warmup 11/5 - 11/10

[Guest Pamela]

But there were plenty of other bad ones I remember: 1983-4,

I've always considered the 1983-84 winter entirely passable in Nassau County...both January and March had excitement...

[uncle W]

I've always considered the 1983-84 winter entirely passable in Nassau County...both January and March had excitement...

if it wasn't for one of the mildest February's one record the winter would have been great... The other three months were cold...

Christmas day's max was 13 with one inch of snow on the ground...January 1984 was cold with two significant snowfalls...February had little snow but March was stormy...7" of snow and near record cold on the 8th...A snow to rain event after that...A major storm on the 28th but temperatures were 34 not 32...3-4" of snow and sleet mixed with rain...26" of snow in the Poconos...The storm would have been epic if it came a month earlier...

[JBG]

I've always considered the 1983-84 winter entirely passable in Nassau County...both January and March had excitement...

if it wasn't for one of the mildest February's one record the winter would have been great... The other three months were cold...

Christmas day's max was 13 with one inch of snow on the ground...January 1984 was cold with two significant snowfalls...February had little snow but March was stormy...7" of snow and near record cold on the 8th...A snow to rain event after that...A major storm on the 28th but temperatures were 34 not 32...3-4" of snow and sleet mixed with rain...26" of snow in the Poconos...The storm would have been epic if it came a month earlier...

We are talking about a poor stretch indeed if 1983-4 were held up as anything but blah. Not another 1972-3 or 1997-8 or 2001-2 grant you but not a whole lot better. And summer-wise after 1983 it wasn't until 1987 that we had a decent one. Overall the 1980's sucked weather-wise.

[Guest Pamela]

We are talking about a poor stretch indeed if 1983-4 were held up as anything but blah. Not another 1972-3 or 1997-8 or 2001-2 grant you but not a whole lot better. And summer-wise after 1983 it wasn't until 1987 that we had a decent one. Overall the 1980's sucked weather-wise.

Standards were lower in those days....we learned to be satisfied with less...

[NYCSuburbs]

We may not reach 70 degrees again, but if the NAM is right for Monday, some places could get close to the 70 degree mark:

[earthlight]

The western retrograde of the mean negative height anomalies on the west coast on the latest GEFS runs would at least offer some hope for some cooler air into our area by late month. That being said it's at the very (very) end of the run.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/f384.gif

[SnowGoose69]

1997-8 and 2001-2 lead the recent s*** parade of bad winters. But there were plenty of other bad ones I remember: 1) 1971-2 (statistics better than reality because of large number of snow to rain events); 1972-3 (strong El Niño with a few exciting near-misses); 1974-5 (one decent storm the rest garbage); 1975-6, 1980-1, 1983-4, 1984-5, 1985-6, 1988-9, 1989-90, 1990-1, 1991-2 (all those winters basically nothing happened); 1976-7 (big cold, lots of wasted talent); 2006-7 (72 in January, 2 big sleet-fests); 2007-8 (except for one semi-decent storm nothing happened).

83-84, 84-85, and 85-86 were not really blowtorch winters but they fell in the very early portion of the snow drought which lasted until 1993 and just about everything that could go wrong to prevent a snow event did. 85-86 was a relatively snowy winter in portions of the southern U.S. similar to 86-87 and 87-88. There has been some research which has had little public exposure that suggests the snow maximum in the U.S. shifts south during the inactive 25-30 year phase of the Atlantic hurricane season impacting regions like the C-S Plains, Ohio Valley, TN Valley, and Mid Atlantic, the 70s and 80s sure suggest that, but the previous inactive phase in the 20s-40s really does not.

[NYCSuburbs]

By now, the models are all in agreement with showing strong cold air building in western Canada, but what's supposed to happen with the cold after it builds up there? During last year's November, the cold stayed there until the Thanksgiving storm pulled it down south, and moderated a little before pouring into the region in early December. It's the longer range and every small detail on the GFS' long range shouldn't be taken seriously as it changes frequently, but I noticed that the last several runs consistently fail to show anything notable happening with the cold air, showing it retreating into Canada and weakening while weaker cold temperatures affect the northern US. Does this seem to be a reasonable idea, or could the cold have a more significant impact than the GFS currently shows?

[bluewave]

if we get some breaks of sun on Tuesday then there will be 70 degree temps pushing up from Central New Jersey to maybe EWR.

[NYCSuburbs]

if we get some breaks of sun on Tuesday then there will be 70 degree temps pushing up from Central New Jersey to maybe EWR.

Looks like that's a reasonable possibility with the front now slow enough on most of the models that it moves through on Tuesday night, with the NAM also showing upper 60s. The GFS has 50s, but it's the eastern outlier at this time, and should trend towards the NAM/ECM to also show widespread highs near or above 65 degrees.

Any opinions on the possible torch for next weekend? The latest GFS/ECM show 850mb temps reaching 10 degrees celsius once again as a trough drops into the western US and another central/eastern US ridge sets up.

[bluewave]

Looks like that's a reasonable possibility with the front now slow enough on most of the models that it moves through on Tuesday night, with the NAM also showing upper 60s. The GFS has 50s, but it's the eastern outlier at this time, and should trend towards the NAM/ECM to also show widespread highs near or above 65 degrees.

Any opinions on the possible torch for next weekend? The latest GFS/ECM show 850mb temps reaching 10 degrees celsius once again as a trough drops into the western US and another central/eastern US ridge sets up.

The pattern is looking like more of the same from about a week to 10 days out.

[Weathergun]

Looks like that's a reasonable possibility with the front now slow enough on most of the models that it moves through on Tuesday night, with the NAM also showing upper 60s. The GFS has 50s, but it's the eastern outlier at this time, and should trend towards the NAM/ECM to also show widespread highs near or above 65 degrees.

Any opinions on the possible torch for next weekend? The latest GFS/ECM show 850mb temps reaching 10 degrees celsius once again as a trough drops into the western US and another central/eastern US ridge sets up.

I think we have another shot at seeing 70 degree temps, the first half of Thanksgiving week.

[nycsnow]

Read the last post;)

[earthlight]

The pattern is looking like more of the same from about a week to 10 days out.

Grabbed this from my post in the SNE thread..figured it was worth posting over here too.

--

The GEFS height anomalies offer at least a slight bit of hope towards the end of the run. Notice the Pacific and Pac NW are absolutely as bad as they can get at 180 hrs with -24 to -36 500mb height anomalies and a trough axis near Idaho. The southeast ridge is flexing with +12-18 height anomalies on the East Coast all the way into SE Canada.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/f180.gif

However..towards the end of the run, we're beginning to see a retrograde of the mean trough from the Pacific NW to the Gulf of Alaska. There are also some hints of positive height anomalies with ridging towards Greenland and the Davis Straight. The end result is at least a slightly more favorable pattern which could yield results towards the end of the month. It's also worth noting how volatile the ensembles are at this range especially with the Gulf of Alaska height anomalies--it's pretty rare to see -18 to -24 height anomalies one the means at 360 hrs. There's usually a much greater spread at that hour.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/f360.gif

A lot of this has to do with the GFS trending towards the ECMWF with the MJO impulse in the longer range. Two days ago the GFS and GEFS were insistent on a moderate 1 MJO through the end of the run, while the ECMWF was generally killing off the impulse. The GFS has caved..in a sense..which is a big help for us.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_full.gif

Here are the MJO Phase 1 La Nina 500mb height anomalies..we'd want to hope the GEFS and Euro are now correct in keeping this generally out of a more moderate phase 1.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO/LaNinagt1Phase1.gif

All of this said...things remain uncertain heading into December. It's definitely not encouraging to see the Euro ensembles and weeklies as they are. And although I'm not the guy screaming "it's only november!!" (because there is something to be said for the pattern now and moving forward)...it being November 12th should offer us at least some perspective at the very least. There's still a ton of lead time going into any potential pattern change -- and we are beginning to see some good signs -- which would take us into early December .. at least somewhat on schedule. I still like a mid December flip to a wintry pattern.

[NYCSuburbs]

Grabbed this from my post in the SNE thread..figured it was worth posting over here too.

--

The GEFS height anomalies offer at least a slight bit of hope towards the end of the run. Notice the Pacific and Pac NW are absolutely as bad as they can get at 180 hrs with -24 to -36 500mb height anomalies and a trough axis near Idaho. The southeast ridge is flexing with +12-18 height anomalies on the East Coast all the way into SE Canada.

http://www.meteo.psu...NH_18z/f180.gif

However..towards the end of the run, we're beginning to see a retrograde of the mean trough from the Pacific NW to the Gulf of Alaska. There are also some hints of positive height anomalies with ridging towards Greenland and the Davis Straight. The end result is at least a slightly more favorable pattern which could yield results towards the end of the month. It's also worth noting how volatile the ensembles are at this range especially with the Gulf of Alaska height anomalies--it's pretty rare to see -18 to -24 height anomalies one the means at 360 hrs. There's usually a much greater spread at that hour.

http://www.meteo.psu...NH_18z/f360.gif

A lot of this has to do with the GFS trending towards the ECMWF with the MJO impulse in the longer range. Two days ago the GFS and GEFS were insistent on a moderate 1 MJO through the end of the run, while the ECMWF was generally killing off the impulse. The GFS has caved..in a sense..which is a big help for us.

http://www.cpc.ncep....splume_full.gif

Here are the MJO Phase 1 La Nina 500mb height anomalies..we'd want to hope the GEFS and Euro are now correct in keeping this generally out of a more moderate phase 1.

http://raleighwx.ame...nagt1Phase1.gif

All of this said...things remain uncertain heading into December. It's definitely not encouraging to see the Euro ensembles and weeklies as they are. And although I'm not the guy screaming "it's only november!!" (because there is something to be said for the pattern now and moving forward)...it being November 12th should offer us at least some perspective at the very least. There's still a ton of lead time going into any potential pattern change -- and we are beginning to see some good signs -- which would take us into early December .. at least somewhat on schedule. I still like a mid December flip to a wintry pattern.

Nice post - there are already some slight improvements, but at this rate, it's going to take time before we see any pattern change. The PNA appears to moderate beyond the 20th, the time frame you mentioned as bringing the worst possible Pacific pattern. It shouldn't be hard to see an improving Pacific pattern considering that it can't get much worse than it is now, although at the same time that the PNA rises towards Thanksgiving, the NAO is also expected to rise to positive along with a positive AO and EPO. The MJO link you posted has it in the COD during the Nov 20-25 time frame before emerging back to phase 2, which also isn't favorable for the East. If the overall idea of the modeled teleconnections verifies, assuming that the PNA does trend towards neutral and there are more signs of ridging near Greenland/Davis Straight, would we want the MJO to stay in the COD after November 25 instead of moving into phase 2 in order to see better improvements in the pattern?

[bluewave]

Grabbed this from my post in the SNE thread..figured it was worth posting over here too.

--

The GEFS height anomalies offer at least a slight bit of hope towards the end of the run. Notice the Pacific and Pac NW are absolutely as bad as they can get at 180 hrs with -24 to -36 500mb height anomalies and a trough axis near Idaho. The southeast ridge is flexing with +12-18 height anomalies on the East Coast all the way into SE Canada.

http://www.meteo.psu...NH_18z/f180.gif

However..towards the end of the run, we're beginning to see a retrograde of the mean trough from the Pacific NW to the Gulf of Alaska. There are also some hints of positive height anomalies with ridging towards Greenland and the Davis Straight. The end result is at least a slightly more favorable pattern which could yield results towards the end of the month. It's also worth noting how volatile the ensembles are at this range especially with the Gulf of Alaska height anomalies--it's pretty rare to see -18 to -24 height anomalies one the means at 360 hrs. There's usually a much greater spread at that hour.

http://www.meteo.psu...NH_18z/f360.gif

A lot of this has to do with the GFS trending towards the ECMWF with the MJO impulse in the longer range. Two days ago the GFS and GEFS were insistent on a moderate 1 MJO through the end of the run, while the ECMWF was generally killing off the impulse. The GFS has caved..in a sense..which is a big help for us.

http://www.cpc.ncep....splume_full.gif

Here are the MJO Phase 1 La Nina 500mb height anomalies..we'd want to hope the GEFS and Euro are now correct in keeping this generally out of a more moderate phase 1.

http://raleighwx.ame...nagt1Phase1.gif

All of this said...things remain uncertain heading into December. It's definitely not encouraging to see the Euro ensembles and weeklies as they are. And although I'm not the guy screaming "it's only november!!" (because there is something to be said for the pattern now and moving forward)...it being November 12th should offer us at least some perspective at the very least. There's still a ton of lead time going into any potential pattern change -- and we are beginning to see some good signs -- which would take us into early December .. at least somewhat on schedule. I still like a mid December flip to a wintry pattern.

Great post. I agree that it's impressive to see model forecasts for such negative height anomalies this far out in time. This +EPO pattern has really been dominant since August.

[gravitylover]

More warmth! Mt biking has been really good, the trails that have been cleared after the snowstorm are riding nicely, the sight lines are long because the undergrowth got put down in the storm and the ground is nice and soft.

I'm also feeling cheap and not needing heating oil yet is a good thing.

[NYCSuburbs]

I don't have access to the ECM temps beyond hour 180 (yet), but the 850mb on the 0z ECMWF look like an absolute torch at hour 216:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif

The GEFS and the ECM ensemble mean agree as well, not with the 850mb temps but with the idea of a large eastern ridge. Some models go against this idea, such as the GFS/CMC, but if the overall set up idea on the ECM verifies, perhaps we could reach 70 degrees once again. Although the PNA offers some hope as it starts to trend weaker after this time frame, the other teleconnections still aren't favorable with a rising NAO/AO/EPO. If we do see slight improvements afterwards as some long range models including the GEFS suggest, I'm thinking that by the Thanksgiving time frame, +/- a few days, we should be done with the near 70 degree torches, although the overall idea of a mild pattern with occasional yet brief cold spells would continue into early December.

[Weathergun]

I don't have access to the ECM temps beyond hour 180 (yet), but the 850mb on the 0z ECMWF look like an absolute torch at hour 216:

http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS216.gif

The GEFS and the ECM ensemble mean agree as well, not with the 850mb temps but with the idea of a large eastern ridge. Some models go against this idea, such as the GFS/CMC, but if the overall set up idea on the ECM verifies, perhaps we could reach 70 degrees once again. Although the PNA offers some hope as it starts to trend weaker after this time frame, the other teleconnections still aren't favorable with a rising NAO/AO/EPO. If we do see slight improvements afterwards as some long range models including the GEFS suggest, I'm thinking that by the Thanksgiving time frame, +/- a few days, we should be done with the near 70 degree torches, although the overall idea of a mild pattern with occasional yet brief cold spells would continue into early December.

I generally agree. There isn't much blocking Thanksgiving week., so the SE ridge could really go bonkers, early that week. I would take blend of GFS and ECMWF for temps, to account for the cold and warm biases, respectfully, at this range. But 70 degree temps aren't out of the question. After thanksgiving week all I see on the GEFS ensembles is a weak +PNA at best, against +EPO,+AO, and near neutrual NAO. I think the week after, we mainly seen end to the well above normal temps for awhile.

[TheTrials]

still think we need to watch carefully what happens once the front goes through on Thursday. Could be a sneaky wave in there and could see some light snow or maybe a little more out of it.

[earthlight]

Great post. I agree that it's impressive to see model forecasts for such negative height anomalies this far out in time. This +EPO pattern has really been dominant since August.

Thanks bud. You've been on this for weeks as well. I agree regarding the +EPO.

The entire North Pacific has been one big anomaly since the end of the summer -- and it's amazing to see the consistency. It's gotten even more dramatic today on the GEFS ensemble mean height anomaly maps. Look at the 498mb pink circle in the Gulf of Alaska and -24 to -36 height anomaly shade. At 300 hours!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/f300.gif

[easternsnowman]

I don't have access to the ECM temps beyond hour 180 (yet), but the 850mb on the 0z ECMWF look like an absolute torch at hour 216:

http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPUS216.gif

The GEFS and the ECM ensemble mean agree as well, not with the 850mb temps but with the idea of a large eastern ridge. Some models go against this idea, such as the GFS/CMC, but if the overall set up idea on the ECM verifies, perhaps we could reach 70 degrees once again. Although the PNA offers some hope as it starts to trend weaker after this time frame, the other teleconnections still aren't favorable with a rising NAO/AO/EPO. If we do see slight improvements afterwards as some long range models including the GEFS suggest, I'm thinking that by the Thanksgiving time frame, +/- a few days, we should be done with the near 70 degree torches, although the overall idea of a mild pattern with occasional yet brief cold spells would continue into early December.

euro long range always shows torch it seems.

[Weathergun]

I don't think these maps could much worse for us. Fortunately, it's still before Thanksgiving:

[tmagan]

November 15^th's record high at Central Park is certainly anomalous. Only day after November 2^nd that the temperature reached 80^oF or higher.

[NYCSuburbs]

I don't think these maps could much worse for us. Fortunately, it's still before Thanksgiving:

I agree, good thing that we're seeing this now and not during December... hopefully this doesn't repeat itself during December though like it's doing this month.

The last few GEFS/GFS runs are still showing some more positive signs at the very end of their runs, especially right after Thanksgiving, and I noticed that these runs attempt to develop more of a west based -NAO, although it's still weak. These changes on the GEFS are still not certain, as it's the long range and should change by the time it gets into the 180 hour range, but if the overall idea of the long range GFS/GEFS ends up close to being correct, perhaps we could start to see some more noticeable improvements in the pattern as soon as the last week of November.

[MJO812]

HM

The AAM is sliding back down again, solidifying the RNA. Usually, this whole

thing retrogrades and that will put the trough back along the East Coast again

as we enter December.

It is going to take a ridiculous +EPO / Alaskan PV

to keep the NAO from going deeply negative which is what the models are showing

in the extended. Once this feature retrogrades and the ridge comes back across

the Rockies, we may get a late-October styled +h5 anomaly again.

I am

still impressed with the pattern basically now through the next 7 days. This is

a very 1955-like picture with a deep NAO pattern and a transpolar ridge.

http://www.esrl.noaa.../images/nao.png

CPC charts are

close to ludicrous in terms of NAO

state.

[SACRUS]

I don't think these maps could much worse for us. Fortunately, it's still before Thanksgiving:

NYC is +0.7 and climbing for the month. By the end of next week on/around the 25th we may have widespread 2 - 4 above normal departures across the region.

Looking at record highs for nyc and the years they occurred over the next week, we see a mix of results for the subsequent December..

1979, 1931, 1993, 1985, 1900, 1953, 1928

[uncle W]

I believe it was mild up until November 17th 1955 before it got very cold with some snow after the 19th...I still think the AO will be more negative than it was in August because the top negative AO Augusts had a month with a lower negative...1960, 1977 and 1964 had a lower August negative AO index than this year...each winter had a month with a lower index than August...August 2011's was below -1.000...If we see a winter month with a lower AO index reading we will probably be seeing a good period of snow and cold...

[SACRUS]

First time since early August I can say the backyard is dry after 40 (plus) inches of rain/snow. I agree with Unc, iso, nightlite and others that we'll likely see a swing back to a colder and stormier pattern within the first two weeks of December.

[uncle W]

First time since early August I can say the backyard is dry after 40 (plus) inches of rain/snow. I agree with Unc, iso, nightlite and others that we'll likely see a swing back to a colder and stormier pattern within the first two weeks of December.

it was 71 on this date in 1964 and later on in the month there was a max of 32 on the 22nd...1964 was one of the years with a lower AO index and we got a month of snow and cold in January 65...