stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Thread 2. I think sensible weather should be 95% wet, 5% white. But at what point do we start believing the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Did you at least oil the bus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Did you at least oil the bus? Ian is going to shoot you. Let's try to keep this thread weather related. My call, DCA: up to an inch, IAD, 2", FDK 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ian is going to shoot you. Let's try to keep this thread weather related. My call, DCA: up to an inch, IAD, 2", FDK 2-3" bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ian is going to shoot you. Let's try to keep this thread weather related. My call, DCA: up to an inch, IAD, 2", FDK 2-3" Sounds like a good call and I would probably go with that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I still don't believe it, but aren't the Euro, NAM, and GFS all calling for at least a couple of inches at this point for the cities on north and west? I have to go with cold rain on this for now just because it is October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 The only thing that I find interesting about the clown maps being posted in this thread is that they show that the models are spitting out a long period of snowfall. It's going to be sloppy and wet with plenty of melting (if it snows at all) so the accumulations on the maps are pretty ridiculous but the models do indicate the potential for extended period of snow falling from the sky. THAT is really cool. Only a couple hours for the 0z NAM. If it holds anything similar to its previous amped up and snowy solution then it's probably ok to accept the fact that it actually may snow here in Oct. There may be a very real chance that the Catoctins or even BR get 4"+ out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ian is going to shoot you. Let's try to keep this thread weather related. My call, DCA: up to an inch, IAD, 2", FDK 2-3" I like where I'm sitting, since the American models started today to include my area in the significant precip shield. I am still expecting non-accumulating wet snow, but that would be great. I can drive close by to gain elevation if good rates make it back here and it turns into more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 FWIW, Accuweather's analysis included the blurb below with two area cities called out... Cities along the I-78, I-81 and I-84 are at risk for the same heavy, wet snow as are those of the northern and western suburbs in the I-95 zone. This includes Hartford, Conn., Frederick, Md., Worcester, Mass., Nashua, N.H., Netcong, N.J., Newburgh, N.Y., Allentown, Pa. and Winchester, Va. This zone also stands the best chance of slippery, snow-covered roads developing, as will be the swath where snow will likely come down fast and furious for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 bullish It'll be tough at DCA at least. Trace is probably the most realistic ceiling there... especially if it rains a lot first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 LOTS of QPF on the 18z UKIE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 It'll be tough at DCA at least. Trace is probably the most realistic ceiling there... especially if it rains a lot first. Well, I said up to an inch. Inch is the max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 LOTS of QPF on the 18z UKIE... Temps? Maps. How does it compare to the 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 FWIW, Accuweather's analysis included the blurb below with two area cities called out... Cities along the I-78, I-81 and I-84 are at risk for the same heavy, wet snow as are those of the northern and western suburbs in the I-95 zone. This includes Hartford, Conn., Frederick, Md., Worcester, Mass., Nashua, N.H., Netcong, N.J., Newburgh, N.Y., Allentown, Pa. and Winchester, Va. This zone also stands the best chance of slippery, snow-covered roads developing, as will be the swath where snow will likely come down fast and furious for several hours. Interesting choice of words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Temps? Maps. How does it compare to the 18z NAM? 18z UKIE HR 48 QPF HR 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It'll be tough at DCA at least. Trace is probably the most realistic ceiling there... especially if it rains a lot first. Was thinking the same thing, borderline temps in a microclimate like that aren't good even in January if 850s were to be copied. LWX favored the E track during their 4PM update, I think it might be a question of the pressure zone versus that upper level/wad of precip to the west that the NAM wants to pull the surface low into. Do warmer SSTA's have any impact on these storms verus whatwe see in the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 DCA likely won't even report any snow. Just 40 degree rain wire to wire. The rest of us might get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z UKIE HR 48 QPF HR 60 I have to assume this is colder than the GFS and snowier, precip shield a bit more east of it. From what I see, looks to be a pretty good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 DCA likely won't even report any snow. Just 40 degree rain wire to wire. The rest of us might get some snow. lolz pick a forecast and stick with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 850s at 48. 0c line is EZF to SBY approx (-4c in N VA/C MD at 60) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 lolz pick a forecast and stick with it 75 MPH gusts at your house is a good bet. Perhaps some overturned cars if the low really cranks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 That UKMET run looks solid. Too bad the UKMET is a horrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 UKMET Looks colder than the GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 18z GFS individ ensemble members at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 850s at 48. 0c line is EZF to SBY approx (-4c in N VA/C MD at 60) Looks good, UKMET though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 DCA likely won't even report any snow. Just 40 degree rain wire to wire. The rest of us might get some snow. At this point I dunno how anyone has much confidence in anything. I guess maybe that we'll get decent QPF but even that's tricky till you're watching the storm come in on radar. Seems to me around D.C. we're still playing the up to a trace or record October snowstorm game. I heavily discount the latter still, though not as much as before. Yet you can take an example like Dec 5 2009 where it snowed almost all day and DCA picked up .2". So, perhaps even in the low probability "best case" the airport would not pick up that much. As much as I disagree with all the bellyache about DCA early season there is still like a tropical jungle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I'm really pulling for this one. A white field vs Delaware would be insanity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It's hard to pick apart any of the models when they are all in such agreement. 85% rain 15% flakes. Best case will be a slight frosting on the trash can lid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 About half of the Raleigh's ensemble members at hr 48 on the 18z GFS seem to have the 0c 850 line a bit further east than the OP http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf048.html Closer look -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zthickf048.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 75 MPH gusts at your house is a good bet. Perhaps some overturned cars if the low really cranks? only 75mph? cmon im sick of underperforming storms. just saying phinny 5 different spurts in 8 hours from you without detail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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