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Tracking the Late October Potential


stormtracker

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The only thing that I find interesting about the clown maps being posted in this thread is that they show that the models are spitting out a long period of snowfall. It's going to be sloppy and wet with plenty of melting (if it snows at all) so the accumulations on the maps are pretty ridiculous but the models do indicate the potential for extended period of snow falling from the sky. THAT is really cool.

Only a couple hours for the 0z NAM. If it holds anything similar to its previous amped up and snowy solution then it's probably ok to accept the fact that it actually may snow here in Oct.

There may be a very real chance that the Catoctins or even BR get 4"+ out of this.

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Ian is going to shoot you.

Let's try to keep this thread weather related. My call, DCA: up to an inch, IAD, 2", FDK 2-3"

:o

I like where I'm sitting, since the American models started today to include my area in the significant precip shield. I am still expecting non-accumulating wet snow, but that would be great. I can drive close by to gain elevation if good rates make it back here and it turns into more.

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FWIW, Accuweather's analysis included the blurb below with two area cities called out...

Cities along the I-78, I-81 and I-84 are at risk for the same heavy, wet snow as are those of the northern and western suburbs in the I-95 zone. This includes Hartford, Conn., Frederick, Md., Worcester, Mass., Nashua, N.H., Netcong, N.J., Newburgh, N.Y., Allentown, Pa. and Winchester, Va.

This zone also stands the best chance of slippery, snow-covered roads developing, as will be the swath where snow will likely come down fast and furious for several hours.

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FWIW, Accuweather's analysis included the blurb below with two area cities called out...

Cities along the I-78, I-81 and I-84 are at risk for the same heavy, wet snow as are those of the northern and western suburbs in the I-95 zone. This includes Hartford, Conn., Frederick, Md., Worcester, Mass., Nashua, N.H., Netcong, N.J., Newburgh, N.Y., Allentown, Pa. and Winchester, Va.

This zone also stands the best chance of slippery, snow-covered roads developing, as will be the swath where snow will likely come down fast and furious for several hours.

Interesting choice of words.

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It'll be tough at DCA at least. Trace is probably the most realistic ceiling there... especially if it rains a lot first.

Was thinking the same thing, borderline temps in a microclimate like that aren't good even in January if 850s were to be copied.

LWX favored the E track during their 4PM update, I think it might be a question of the pressure zone versus that upper level/wad of precip to the west that the NAM wants to pull the surface low into. Do warmer SSTA's have any impact on these storms verus whatwe see in the winter?

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DCA likely won't even report any snow. Just 40 degree rain wire to wire. The rest of us might get some snow.

At this point I dunno how anyone has much confidence in anything. I guess maybe that we'll get decent QPF but even that's tricky till you're watching the storm come in on radar. Seems to me around D.C. we're still playing the up to a trace or record October snowstorm game. I heavily discount the latter still, though not as much as before. Yet you can take an example like Dec 5 2009 where it snowed almost all day and DCA picked up .2". So, perhaps even in the low probability "best case" the airport would not pick up that much. As much as I disagree with all the bellyache about DCA early season there is still like a tropical jungle.

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