eduggs Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Quick look at the UK on the Plymouth site... looks similar to the GFS in placement and timing of h5 at 72hr for storm #2. Maybe even a hair better? Any confirmation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 You might want to sit on your roof to maximize elevation. The top of the water tower has to be like 1,050 feet. Its high. I might climb up the ladder. It only had a shoddy fence around it...easily negotiable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The top of the water tower has to be like 1,050 feet. Its high. I might climb up the ladder. It only had a shoddy fence around it...easily negotiable. Maybe I'll climb the Needham TV towers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The first wave will get suppressed a bit more, and the second one will amplify a bit more to come to the perfect solution of back to back snow storms for SNE and major screwage for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Maybe I'll climb the Needham TV towers. You can be like the kid in kindergarden cop climbing the tower at the end. Except you have a ruler with you to measure the little spot on the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The first wave will get suppressed a bit more, and the second one will amplify a bit more to come to the perfect solution of back to back snow storms for SNE and major screwage for NNE And then NNE will laugh the rest of the winter with SWFEs that give us snow to sleet while powderfreak dances naked and talks about upslope snows after the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 You can be like the kid in kindergarden cop climbing the tower at the end. Except you have a ruler with you to measure the little spot on the top. Meanwhile Canadian a little more south with the first storm, but maybe snowing at 00z in ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 GFS ensembles trying to come around for storm 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Meanwhile Canadian a little more south with the first storm, but maybe snowing at 00z in ORH? The RGEM was heavy snow here at 00z as I posted on the collaboration ptype maps...so I'm assuming the Canadian is too. Soon the post-48hr maps will be out. I'm sure its snow here at 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 And then NNE will laugh the rest of the winter with SWFEs that give us snow to sleet while powderfreak dances naked and talks about upslope snows after the storm passes. one can dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Lol, the GGEM is much faster than the RGEM because at 51h, the precip is almost done, while at 48h on the RGEM on the ptype maps there is still a lot of precip to go through...the loop has a big disconnect...thats the problem with looping a ptype algorithm from two different models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 00z Ukie is nearly over the BM at 96h for the 2nd storm...its come back well west from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 00z Ukie is nearly over the BM at 96h for the 2nd storm...its come back well west from 12z. Those models will shift around like nobody's business. The run to run consistency is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Those models will shift around like nobody's business. The run to run consistency is laughable. Its def good though that we are seeing a shift back W from the GFS/Ukie and the GFS ensembles. The Euro might be schooling everyone in this...i doubt the Euro perfect track is right, but it might end up being the winner even if its just a generally weaker storm much closer to the coast...could drop more snow for some of the favored areas...obviously we'd love the perfect solution where even the low elevations clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Its def good though that we are seeing a shift back W from the GFS/Ukie and the GFS ensembles. The Euro might be schooling everyone in this...i doubt the Euro perfect track is right, but it might end up being the winner even if its just a generally weaker storm much closer to the coast...could drop more snow for some of the favored areas...obviously we'd love the perfect solution where even the low elevations clean up. I should clarify that meant the Ukie and the Canadian. At least the GFS will eventually catch on and not swing around wildly. I'm happy with the shift west on the GFS op and ensembles. It's not a violent 300 mile shift, but a respectable shift that sort of hints at the potential of something coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I should clarify that meant the Ukie and the Canadian. At least the GFS will eventually catch on and not swing around wildly. I'm happy with the shift west on the GFS op and ensembles. It's not a violent 300 mile shift, but a respectable shift that sort of hints at the potential of something coming up. Oh I agree about the Ukie and GGEM...they will show a BGM snowbomb one run and then show Phil getting nude the next run...their consistency is horrible. But its def good that we have some shift west is what I meant. Those other models are def hard to take seriously in the medium range. Ukie is ok, but it still likes extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Dead zone #2...much shorter than the typical 18z to 00z dead zone...but waiting for the Euro is like watching paint dry and also waiting for the gut punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Oh I agree about the Ukie and GGEM...they will show a BGM snowbomb one run and then show Phil getting nude the next run...their consistency is horrible. But its def good that we have some shift west is what I meant. Those other models are def hard to take seriously in the medium range. Ukie is ok, but it still likes extremes. The 00z Ukie has some pretty high thicknesses--not sure on it's credibility in that department...but even the GFS has much lower thicknesses on Saturday as the storm tracks SE of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 but waiting for the Euro is like watching paint dry and also waiting for the gut punch. lol haven't been on here as much (out of town) but are we looking for the euro to basically track the vortmax a bit further south amongst other things? (for first storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 0z FIM shifts west from the previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 What the hell is the FIM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 0z FIM shifts west from the previous run Thanks for the FIM update. I might check the COAMPS model later tonight to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Euro coming a little south not too surprisingly given the other guidance. Gives me a chance of some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Thanks for the FIM update. I might check the COAMPS model later tonight to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Euro coming a little south not too surprisingly given the other guidance. Gives me a chance of some snow. Yeah came south a little bit like we thought based on other guidance but nothing near the NAM/SREF type solutions. But good enough to give me a burst and possible a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 From what I can tell the I-90 region and 30-40 miles either side look good at 00z in terns of RH and VV at 700. Edit, up to Dendrite too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 it doesn't look as good as 12z for the weekend coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Thanks for the FIM update. I might check the COAMPS model later tonight to verify. The FIM actually did pretty well last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Yeah came south a little bit like we thought based on other guidance but nothing near the NAM/SREF type solutions. But good enough to give me a burst and possible a couple inches. Yeah this solution seems plausible. I think we are honing in on your first measurable of the season...and not just a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Thanks for the FIM update. I might check the COAMPS model later tonight to verify. We may also draw upon the NOGAPS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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