Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Based on all the overnight runs..it looks like 1-2 and possibly 3 is looking suberb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Post-00z run call: Socks (KAFN): 4.3" Hubbdave: 3.5" KORH: 2.3" KTOL: 0.8" MPM: 3.7" MRG: 4.0" KGAY: 0.5" Thanks for your call on the 00z run, Will. 3.7" exceeds my continued expecation of 3.0" Expect a trend north and a bit warmer from the NAM at 06z and beyond. lol 6z nam actually looks south and colder Looks like it did nudge north. Not a lot, but given the precariousness of rn/sn line, elevation, and surface temps, smidges will mean a lot I think. Meanwhile, hoping to get at least some mood snow on Saturday. But we need a lot more to happen for us here in the NW corner. East of the valley, much better positioned at this point in time. 39.6/35 off a low of 38.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Here's hpc's take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Looks like it did nudge north. Not a lot, but given the precariousness of rn/sn line, elevation, and surface temps, smidges will mean a lot I think. The 6z NAM was decently south again. Complete whiff up here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 The 6z NAM was decently south again. Complete whiff up here now. Oops--my bad.. It looked to me that the qpf had gone up north a bit. Maybe it was just something I saw in mby. FWIW, BOX is calling for mixing here during the day with no reference in the forecats for accumulations. Perhaps they'll start throwing those out with the 4:00pm. forecasts. MAZ002-262000- WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 415 AM EDT WED OCT 26 2011 . .THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG. COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Here's a buzz-kill from the BOX AFD for 95% of the posters. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY EVENING...THE FAVORED ELEVATIONS FOR ACCUMULATION WOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET IN SOUTHERN NH CLIMBING TO 2000 FEET OVER NORTHERN CONNECTICUT. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OFF MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND ITS 58F WATER TEMPS SHOULD KEEP THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN AS RAIN. On the plus side, a whole bunch of the posters will be able to record a trace. Hell, that might be all I do for all I know. EDIT: I'm not sure if the posted excerpt is for the system or just for the day on Thursday, but later on they are dismissive of snow south and east of ORH. I think Mt. Tolland is south and west so the Rev may eek out something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Will thinks 3.5" for me I call 2" and will be happier than a Rev in a tub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 South of Pike winter incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 South of Pike winter incoming? Libations 300% of normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 6z gfs doesnt look good for the weekend system.. I think 12z will have a better handle on everything but you never know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 South of Pike winter incoming? That would be funny after last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 6z gfs doesnt look good for the weekend system.. I think 12z will have a better handle on everything but you never know! Where are you seeing the 06 run? I don't see it on ncep yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Where are you seeing the 06 run? I don't see it on ncep yet. Out to 174 on ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=ccs&module=pages§ion=pages&folder=/models&id=6 ncep wasnt working for me either Where are you seeing the 06 run? I don't see it on ncep yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Here's a buzz-kill from the BOX AFD for 95% of the posters. BASED ON BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY EVENING...THE FAVORED ELEVATIONS FOR ACCUMULATION WOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 1000 FEET IN SOUTHERN NH CLIMBING TO 2000 FEET OVER NORTHERN CONNECTICUT. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OFF MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND ITS 58F WATER TEMPS SHOULD KEEP THE BOS-PVD COASTAL PLAIN AS RAIN. On the plus side, a whole bunch of the posters will be able to record a trace. Hell, that might be all I do for all I know. EDIT: I'm not sure if the posted excerpt is for the system or just for the day on Thursday, but later on they are dismissive of snow south and east of ORH. I think Mt. Tolland is south and west so the Rev may eek out something. LOL..there's not even any 2000 foot areas in CT BOX forecast area . Why the hell would they even put that in there. NAM, GFS, EURO all drop accumulating snow 500- 1000 feet How can you not know where i am? I'm 12-15 minutes from the Mass border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Ukie and Euro ens are good hits for weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Ukie and Euro ens are good hits for weekend storm ENS look pretty far SE on the Euro, Phil special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 ENS look pretty far SE on the Euro, Phil special There's some members farther N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 6z gfs doesnt look good for the weekend system.. I think 12z will have a better handle on everything but you never know! Phil would love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 LOL..there's not even any 2000 foot areas in CT BOX forecast area . Why the hell would they even put that in there. NAM, GFS, EURO all drop accumulating snow 500- 1000 feet How can you not know where i am? I'm 12-15 minutes from the Mass border. I was trying to think of where you were longitutinally from ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Had to fire up the furnace over the weekend and again this morning. The house was in the mid 50's.. heating season has begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Had to fire up the furnace over the weekend and again this morning. The house was in the mid 50's.. heating season has begun You're a wimp. Just throw on a shawl. I've had the stove going most of the last two weeks. I expect I might have one or two days that I will let it go out still, but for all intents and purposes, it's going 24/7 until April. DT throws Phil a weenie on FB... **** ALERT*** ALERT The oz wed GFS model has conceded defeat once more to the vastly superior ECMWF when it comes to handling east coast events! The new GFS has shifted a weak diffuse low HUNDREDS kf miles further west and developx the low into a much more signifcant event for VA MD DE PA NJ NYC NYand NEW ENGLAND... 39.1/35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 You're a wimp. Just throw on a shawl. I've had the stove going most of the last two weeks. I expect I might have one or two days that I will let it go out still, but for all intents and purposes, it's going 24/7 until April. DT throws Phil a weenie on FB... **** ALERT*** ALERT The oz wed GFS model has conceded defeat once more to the vastly superior ECMWF when it comes to handling east coast events! The new GFS has shifted a weak diffuse low HUNDREDS kf miles further west and developx the low into a much more signifcant event for VA MD DE PA NJ NYC NYand NEW ENGLAND... 39.1/35 Yup..back to back snow events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Thursday Night: Rain, possibly mixing with snow after 11pm, then gradually ending. Low around 31. North wind between 10 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Friday: Sunny, with a high near 50. North wind between 8 and 10 mph. Friday Night: A slight chance of rain after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Saturday: Rain likely, mainly after 9am. Cloudy and breezy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday Night: Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Finally snow in my forcast, V for victory! Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I've had the stove going most of the last two weeks. I expect I might have one or two days that I will let it go out still, but for all intents and purposes, it's going 24/7 until April. I've had the stove running here too--not 24/7 just yet but I fire it up in the evening when I get home from work. Heavy heavy kindling. Wait, what thread is this? Doesn't sound like it's going to snow much up here--too far north. Good luck down yonder though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I've had the stove running here too--not 24/7 just yet but I fire it up in the evening when I get home from work. Heavy heavy kindling. Wait, what thread is this? Doesn't sound like it's going to snow much up here--too far north. Good luck down yonder though! If I can keep my qpf....... Seems like a fair amount of frowns wrt to Saturday. I think the Euro's muting of the storm has had a greater impact than the GFS' emergence of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Post-00z run call: Socks (KAFN): 4.3" Hubbdave: 3.5" KORH: 2.3" KTOL: 0.8" MPM: 3.7" MRG: 4.0" KGAY: 0.5" Cool. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Those models will shift around like nobody's business. The run to run consistency is laughable. Is the uncertainty with the hurricane track messing with models? Well maybe not, they did this all last winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Cool. I'll take it. good event for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Should we make a different thread for Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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