wisconsinwx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I figured it is important that we continue discussion of any winter-related predictions or thoughts in a separate thread. Only a few more weeks until we start tracking storms that could actually yield a legit snowstorm for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 I'll be coming out with my outlook on November 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Chicago's winter La Nina stats...since were headed into another Nina winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 Chicago's winter La Nina stats...since were headed into another Nina winter... I was looking at similar data for Milwaukee, and, although not in the same form, also found that Moderate La Ninas tend to have the coldest and wettest combination compared to weak and strong. Given the high chances of moderate, I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I was looking at similar data for Milwaukee, and, although not in the same form, also found that Moderate La Ninas tend to have the coldest and wettest combination compared to weak and strong. Given the high chances of moderate, I like our chances. meh.. 2008-09 while not officially a Nina was sure damn close. It did have a TM Peak of -0.8 but just missed being called a Nina officially by one tm and or 0.2! I'll always include it in the weak Ninas. And 83-84 was similar but that had a peak of -0.9 and only missed being called a Nina by 0.1! At one time it had been a declared Nina but for some reason they updated and changed it? Heck 1995-96/2000-01 peaked at only -0.7! That is all using the Tri Monthly method. I believe others have called them Nina's via other methods and thus see 05-06 which some call a weak nina. Borderline/Weak and moderate Ninas work the best around here for snowfall. The exception was the Ninas in the late 40s/50s up to 62-63 as they all generally sucked. 64-65 onward is when the Ninas started delivering again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 meh.. 2008-09 while not officially a Nina was sure damn close. It did have a TM Peak of -0.8 but just missed being called a Nina officially by one tm and or 0.2! I'll always include it in the weak Ninas. And 83-84 was similar but that had a peak of -0.9 and only missed being called a Nina by 0.1! At one time it had been a declared Nina but for some reason they updated and changed it? Heck 1995-96/2000-01 peaked at only -0.7! That is all using the Tri Monthly method. I believe others have called them Nina's via other methods and thus see 05-06 which some call a weak nina. Borderline/Weak and moderate Ninas work the best around here for snowfall. The exception was the Ninas in the late 40s/50s up to 62-63 as they all generally sucked. 64-65 onward is when the Ninas started delivering again. I have a hard time taking the nina/nino stuff seriously back as far as the late '40s/50s, is it really fair to compare it to data from 2000 and beyond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Just a FYI October update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 My call will be out this evening. Gonna be local but the general idea will apply to nearby areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 My call will be out this evening. Gonna be local but the general idea will apply to nearby areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 He's going HOT!.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Bump for those who haven't joined yet. 2011-12 Central/Western Forum Snowfall Contest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 He's going HOT!.. Late breaking news, Hoosier won't be able to post his forecast. It was so hot it melted his computer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Bump for those who haven't joined yet. 2011-12 Central/Western Forum Snowfall Contest Thanks BowMe. Looking at your entry, not feeling so good about this winter, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 He's going HOT!.. Nah, he's going cold...er colder than normal. We'll see on the snowfall part... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 Thanks BowMe. Looking at your entry, not feeling so good about this winter, eh? Skepticism is in his blood, and I don't blame him. Makes it easier to take the misses. Also, if by some chance most forecasters bust and this does turn out to be a low snow winter, he's probably close to a shoo-in (unless Tropical participates). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Here it is. Years I took into consideration: 1950-1951 1956-1957 1962-1963 1967-1968 1971-1972 1974-1975 1995-1996 2000-2001 2008-2009 2010-2011 Many of these years are on here for little reason other than being Ninas but I didn't want to be stuck with only a couple years. I generally chose 2nd year Ninas but a couple exceptions were made to include non-2nd year Ninas either because of the intrayear Nina progression being similar (imo) or something else being similar like summer temps, etc. Of the above years, I probably like 2008-2009 the best. 2nd year Ninas have not been very kind to LAF, especially in terms of snow, with many years featuring below average snow and some that were downright awful. A few were ok. Forecast for LAF against 1981-2010 airport normals Temps (DJF): below average, -2 to -4 Precip (DJF): near average to somewhat below average, -1 to +0.5 Snow (entire season): near average, 25-30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I have a hard time taking the nina/nino stuff seriously back as far as the late '40s/50s, is it really fair to compare it to data from 2000 and beyond? All depends on who you ask? I have been known to use stuff going back to the 1800s for my winter outlooks. I however use a slew of things as well. I also weigh things ( thus how important they are ) differently then a few others. Anyways to answer your question YES i think it is fair to do that and yes i would go further back. You kinda have to and that you can thank to solar, PDO etc IF you want decent results. Had i done a cut off of even say 1950 my outlooks the past few winters would have busted badly. So no way will i ever do that. I'll take any data i can get as far back as possible. It kinda makes your work harder but i think it is worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Forecast for LAF against 1981-2010 airport normals Temps (DJF): below average, -2 to -4 Precip (DJF): near average to somewhat below average, -1 to +0.5 Snow (entire season): near average, 25-30" Looks good. That's probably pretty close what I'll have to offer as a LAF guess...but probably a bit less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Looks good. That's probably pretty close what I'll have to offer as a LAF guess...but probably a bit less snow. Im dissapointed guys Just messing. Im no long range forecaster but I just have a good feeling about this winter and possibly making a run at 40 inches of snow. I agree with the below normal temps. Im hoping for alot of spread the wealth clippers. Those are always exciting cause 9x out of 10 you dont have to worry about precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Looks good. That's probably pretty close what I'll have to offer as a LAF guess...but probably a bit less snow. I tried to be a little optimistic with snow but overall it wasn't very encouraging. I did peek at a few pre-1950 years but those really weren't much better in terms of snow. Of course any individual year can buck the trend and we can hope that this is the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I tried to be a little optimistic with snow but overall it wasn't very encouraging. I did peek at a few pre-1950 years but those really weren't much better in terms of snow. Of course any individual year can buck the trend and we can hope that this is the year. There seems to be some sketchy snowfall data in the past, but I guess that's an issue whether it be a COOP or even a first order site. So I guess there needs to be some pause in that respect. Regardless, yes if we're strictly doing an analog style forecast (which mine is pretty much)...second Ninas blow for LAF. Of course there's exceptions to every "rule"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Chicago's winter La Nina stats...since were headed into another Nina winter... Detroit & La Nina 2010-11: 69.1" - MOD 2007-08: 71.7" - MOD 2000-01: 39.0" - WEAK 1999-00: 23.7" - STRONG 1998-99: 49.5" - MOD 1995-96: 27.6" - WEAK 1988-89: 25.1" - STRONG 1984-85: 55.1" - MOD 1975-76: 55.9" - STRONG 1974-75: 63.1" - WEAK 1973-74: 49.2" - STRONG 1971-72: 29.0" - MOD 1970-71: 35.4" - MOD 1967-68: 30.6" - WEAK 1964-65: 49.3" - MOD 1962-63: 29.7" - WEAK 1956-57: 45.6" - WEAK 1955-56: 45.2" - STRONG 1954-55: 27.2" - MOD 1950-51: 42.2" - MOD 1949-50: 42.8" - STRONG AVG - 43.1" AVGS Weak (6): 39.3" Mod (9): 47.5" Strong (6): 40.3" Single Season Nina (7): 41.3" 1st Season Nina (6): 45.5" 2nd Season Nina (5): 40.6" 3rd Season Nina (3): 46.8" Snowstorms in Nina Biggest storm, # of 6"+ storms that winter, 1"+ snowcover days 2010-11: 10.3" ...... 3 ..... 80 days ...MOD 2007-08: 9.0" ........ 3 .... 63 days ...MOD 2000-01: 6.1" ........ 1 ..... 67 days ...WEAK 1999-00: 4.0" ........ 0 ..... 43 days ...STRONG 1998-99: 11.3" ....... 2 ..... 41 days ...MOD 1995-96: 5.8" ......... 0 ..... 31 days ...WEAK 1988-89: 4.1" ......... 0 ..... 19 days ...STRONG 1984-85: 5.5" ......... 0 ..... 55 days ...MOD 1975-76: 6.5" ......... 3 ......68 days ...STRONG 1974-75: 19.3" ....... 1 .... 65 days ...WEAK 1973-74: 11.2" ....... 2 .....57 days.... STRONG 1971-72: 3.0" ......... 0 ...... 28 days ....MOD 1970-71: 3.7" ......... 0 ...... 43 days ....MOD 1967-68: 7.7" .......... 2 ..... 48 days.... WEAK 1964-65: 11.0" ........ 1 ...... 76 days.... MOD 1962-63: 4.7" .......... 0 ...... 81 days ... WEAK 1956-57: 9.0" .......... 1 ...... 56 days.... WEAK 1955-56: 5.3" .......... 0 ...... 47 days.... STRONG 1954-55: 3.8" .......... 0 ....... 36 days.... MOD 1950-51: 6.3" .......... 1 ....... 46 days... MOD 1949-50: 5.7" .......... 0 ........45 days.... STRONG As much as id like to find one, really cant find any one trend wrt Nina winters, be it for snowfall, snowcover, or for strong, weak, moderate, 1st or 2nd year, whatever. So it seems to me that other factors will weight more heavily than itself. The last 2 Ninas were very snowy, and we are in a snowy cycle. So my bet? Another snowy winter in 2011-12!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Detroit & La Nina 2010-11: 69.1" - MOD 2007-08: 71.7" - MOD 2000-01: 39.0" - WEAK 1999-00: 23.7" - STRONG 1998-99: 49.5" - MOD 1995-96: 27.6" - WEAK 1988-89: 25.1" - STRONG 1984-85: 55.1" - MOD 1975-76: 55.9" - STRONG 1974-75: 63.1" - WEAK 1973-74: 49.2" - STRONG 1971-72: 29.0" - MOD 1970-71: 35.4" - MOD 1967-68: 30.6" - WEAK 1964-65: 49.3" - MOD 1962-63: 29.7" - WEAK 1956-57: 45.6" - WEAK 1955-56: 45.2" - STRONG 1954-55: 27.2" - MOD 1950-51: 42.2" - MOD 1949-50: 42.8" - STRONG AVG - 43.1" AVGS Weak (6): 39.3" Mod (9): 47.5" Strong (6): 40.3" Single Season Nina (7): 41.3" 1st Season Nina (6): 45.5" 2nd Season Nina (5): 40.6" 3rd Season Nina (3): 46.8" Snowstorms in Nina Biggest storm, # of 6"+ storms that winter, 1"+ snowcover days 2010-11: 10.3" ...... 3 ..... 80 days ...MOD 2007-08: 9.0" ........ 3 .... 63 days ...MOD 2000-01: 6.1" ........ 1 ..... 67 days ...WEAK 1999-00: 4.0" ........ 0 ..... 43 days ...STRONG 1998-99: 11.3" ....... 2 ..... 41 days ...MOD 1995-96: 5.8" ......... 0 ..... 31 days ...WEAK 1988-89: 4.1" ......... 0 ..... 19 days ...STRONG 1984-85: 5.5" ......... 0 ..... 55 days ...MOD 1975-76: 6.5" ......... 3 ......68 days ...STRONG 1974-75: 19.3" ....... 1 .... 65 days ...WEAK 1973-74: 11.2" ....... 2 .....57 days.... STRONG 1971-72: 3.0" ......... 0 ...... 28 days ....MOD 1970-71: 3.7" ......... 0 ...... 43 days ....MOD 1967-68: 7.7" .......... 2 ..... 48 days.... WEAK 1964-65: 11.0" ........ 1 ...... 76 days.... MOD 1962-63: 4.7" .......... 0 ...... 81 days ... WEAK 1956-57: 9.0" .......... 1 ...... 56 days.... WEAK 1955-56: 5.3" .......... 0 ...... 47 days.... STRONG 1954-55: 3.8" .......... 0 ....... 36 days.... MOD 1950-51: 6.3" .......... 1 ....... 46 days... MOD 1949-50: 5.7" .......... 0 ........45 days.... STRONG As much as id like to find one, really cant find any one trend wrt Nina winters, be it for snowfall, snowcover, or for strong, weak, moderate, 1st or 2nd year, whatever. So it seems to me that other factors will weight more heavily than itself. The last 2 Ninas were very snowy, and we are in a snowy cycle. So my bet? Another snowy winter in 2011-12!!! 1999-2000 really sucked. We shall see what happens no one knows. Im banking on normal snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I have been following the rapid refresh for the past several months and am amazed at the accuracy for QPF amounts. It's repeatedly spot on for every rain storm here, can't wait to see how it does with snow. Will hopefully be a great "day of" forecasting tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yet another good forecast for the southern Lakes, this one from a met in GRR http://blogs.woodtv.com/author/billsteffen/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Here we go... DTW. 35.5 inches. Why? Because I think this La Nina will be too much to handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Here we go... DTW. 35.5 inches. Why? Because I think this La Nina will be too much to handle You do know that we have never seen a strong nina develop this late? Per the TM method the strongest Nina we have seen was -1.1 when we were at -0.2 which is where we were at earlier this month. Thus the chances are very good this Nina never reaches strong. At best we could get to a moderate Nina like 07-08 but even that peak of -1.4 is gonna be hard to achieve. I think somewhere in the -0.9 to -1.2 range is a good solid bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 You do know that we have never seen a strong nina develop this late? Per the TM method the strongest Nina we have seen was -1.1 when we were at -0.2 which is where we were at earlier this month. Thus the chances are very good this Nina never reaches strong. At best we could get to a moderate Nina like 07-08 but even that peak of -1.4 is gonna be hard to achieve. I think somewhere in the -0.9 to -1.2 range is a good solid bet. Good stuff Harry. When's your winter forecast going to be unveiled? Looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Here we go... DTW. 35.5 inches. Why? Because I think this La Nina will be too much to handle By too much to handle you mean? You do know that we have never seen a strong nina develop this late? Per the TM method the strongest Nina we have seen was -1.1 when we were at -0.2 which is where we were at earlier this month. Thus the chances are very good this Nina never reaches strong. At best we could get to a moderate Nina like 07-08 but even that peak of -1.4 is gonna be hard to achieve. I think somewhere in the -0.9 to -1.2 range is a good solid bet. I'm starting to doubt the ONI peaks colder than -0.8... not that much favoring La Nina strengthening at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 Good stuff Harry. When's your winter forecast going to be unveiled? Looking forward to it. Thanks.. Kinda working on it now. YES i finally got a full day off to do this stuff. Been one very hectic last few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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