2011-12 Winter Prediction/Preview Thread

[Harry]

By too much to handle you mean?

I'm starting to doubt the ONI peaks colder than -0.8... not that much favoring La Nina strengthening at this point.

Oh it will strengthen a bit. A decent amount of cold SST's just below the surface. Some of it will make it to the top just a matter of how much. A peak of -0.8 is certainly not out of the question. I would atleast favor that vs say a peak below -1.4!

[michsnowfreak]

Here we go...

DTW. 35.5 inches.

Why? Because I think this La Nina will be too much to handle

I see us seeing 1.5-2 times that much (on the order of 50-70 inches), but you know whats funny? We are in such an amazing stretch of snowy winters, and we snow lovers have become so used to it, that now to forecast a winter of 35.5" is probably implying that you foresee winter as a on the line between failure and disaster. (Im gonna go off a bit, sort of branching off on a post Trent made earlier). From a historical perspective, 35.5" is not a disaster winter, its one of snowfall about half a foot below normal. Speaking of disaster, if this was Detroits trainwreak of a decade for snow, the 1940s, 35.5" would be the wonderful, the 2nd snowiest winter of the decade. But with the winters the young 21st century has brought us so far, 35.5" would seem simply unacceptable lol.

What Im getting at is that we have raised the bar on all aspects surrounding snow. For instance, if we were having this discussion in the late 1990s, it would be realistic to say something like "DTW: 23.5" Because I think this La Nina will be too much to handle". I think if we were to see a well below normal winter of, say, 25" of snow, many the snow weenie in this area would bemoan the winter, exclaiming "worst winter EVER" and "perpetual screw zone" and "epically snowless winter". When in reality there have been 19 winters since 1880 with less than 25" of total snowfall. I also suspect if we see a good winter where Detroit sees 55", many may think of it as average, nice, nothing special (when in reality, only 23 winters since 1880 have seen more than 55", with 5 of those coming in the last 9 years). Hell, many acted like 2009-10 was a disaster when Detroit saw 43.7" of snow, a winter right at normal (actually a good 3" above the longterm average". This was because 2009-10 was on the heals of the historically snowy back-to-back 2007-08 and 2008-09 winters, and we ended up following this "dud" of a 2009-10 winter with nearly 70" in 2010-11. Bottom line, we keep raising and raising the bar on snowfall. Id like to convince myself that this is the "new norm" and climo is changing, but realistically we probably will be knocked back to reality sometime. Just always hope its "not this winter". For when or if it DOES come back to a more realistic snowfall, some sh*t will be hitting the fan on weather boards from some ticked off snowlovers!

[wisconsinwx]

I see us seeing 1.5-2 times that much (on the order of 50-70 inches), but you know whats funny? We are in such an amazing stretch of snowy winters, and we snow lovers have become so used to it, that now to forecast a winter of 35.5" is probably implying that you foresee winter as a on the line between failure and disaster. (Im gonna go off a bit, sort of branching off on a post Trent made earlier). From a historical perspective, 35.5" is not a disaster winter, its one of snowfall about half a foot below normal. Speaking of disaster, if this was Detroits trainwreak of a decade for snow, the 1940s, 35.5" would be the wonderful, the 2nd snowiest winter of the decade. But with the winters the young 21st century has brought us so far, 35.5" would seem simply unacceptable lol.

What Im getting at is that we have raised the bar on all aspects surrounding snow. For instance, if we were having this discussion in the late 1990s, it would be realistic to say something like "DTW: 23.5" Because I think this La Nina will be too much to handle". I think if we were to see a well below normal winter of, say, 25" of snow, many the snow weenie in this area would bemoan the winter, exclaiming "worst winter EVER" and "perpetual screw zone" and "epically snowless winter". When in reality there have been 19 winters since 1880 with less than 25" of total snowfall. I also suspect if we see a good winter where Detroit sees 55", many may think of it as average, nice, nothing special (when in reality, only 23 winters since 1880 have seen more than 55", with 5 of those coming in the last 9 years). Hell, many acted like 2009-10 was a disaster when Detroit saw 43.7" of snow, a winter right at normal (actually a good 3" above the longterm average". This was because 2009-10 was on the heals of the historically snowy back-to-back 2007-08 and 2008-09 winters, and we ended up following this "dud" of a 2009-10 winter with nearly 70" in 2010-11. Bottom line, we keep raising and raising the bar on snowfall. Id like to convince myself that this is the "new norm" and climo is changing, but realistically we probably will be knocked back to reality sometime. Just always hope its "not this winter". For when or if it DOES come back to a more realistic snowfall, some sh*t will be hitting the fan on weather boards from some ticked off snowlovers!

No kidding. 2009-10 seemed like a terrible winter, and even looking back, it still seems like a terrible winter (mid-30s in terms of snowfall). Of course, when you put in perspective, the other 4 most recent winters gave us snow totals in the 50s, 90s, 80s, and 60s respectively, that puts it in perspective why it only seems like a terrible winter (it was over a foot below average, though). What's interesting is both the Great Lakes and Northeast (coastal cities, anyways) are on an upward tick in snow over the last 5 years. It would be a good poll question to ask which region gets knocked back to reality first. The NE already has a head start this season, but given the teleconnections, good chance the Great Lakes holds serve as well.

[SpartyOn]

I see us seeing 1.5-2 times that much (on the order of 50-70 inches), but you know whats funny? We are in such an amazing stretch of snowy winters, and we snow lovers have become so used to it, that now to forecast a winter of 35.5" is probably implying that you foresee winter as a on the line between failure and disaster. (Im gonna go off a bit, sort of branching off on a post Trent made earlier). From a historical perspective, 35.5" is not a disaster winter, its one of snowfall about half a foot below normal. Speaking of disaster, if this was Detroits trainwreak of a decade for snow, the 1940s, 35.5" would be the wonderful, the 2nd snowiest winter of the decade. But with the winters the young 21st century has brought us so far, 35.5" would seem simply unacceptable lol.

What Im getting at is that we have raised the bar on all aspects surrounding snow. For instance, if we were having this discussion in the late 1990s, it would be realistic to say something like "DTW: 23.5" Because I think this La Nina will be too much to handle". I think if we were to see a well below normal winter of, say, 25" of snow, many the snow weenie in this area would bemoan the winter, exclaiming "worst winter EVER" and "perpetual screw zone" and "epically snowless winter". When in reality there have been 19 winters since 1880 with less than 25" of total snowfall. I also suspect if we see a good winter where Detroit sees 55", many may think of it as average, nice, nothing special (when in reality, only 23 winters since 1880 have seen more than 55", with 5 of those coming in the last 9 years). Hell, many acted like 2009-10 was a disaster when Detroit saw 43.7" of snow, a winter right at normal (actually a good 3" above the longterm average". This was because 2009-10 was on the heals of the historically snowy back-to-back 2007-08 and 2008-09 winters, and we ended up following this "dud" of a 2009-10 winter with nearly 70" in 2010-11. Bottom line, we keep raising and raising the bar on snowfall. Id like to convince myself that this is the "new norm" and climo is changing, but realistically we probably will be knocked back to reality sometime. Just always hope its "not this winter". For when or if it DOES come back to a more realistic snowfall, some sh*t will be hitting the fan on weather boards from some ticked off snowlovers!

Translation.. My prediction of 35.5 inches made you cringe. I would hardly say 35.5 is a "disaster" thats only about 5-6 inches below normal. Maybe minus one synaptic system. Your correct..we are now somewhat overdue for a wake up call! I hope Im wrong but it WILL one day happen. Heck just look at the numbers you posted for Detroit La Nina Winters. There are a few really crappy winters if your a snow lover. No one knows the amount of snow we will get this season! Thats why a guess is a guess. So your guessing 50-70 im guessing 35.5. Hedge your bets! lol

[Chargers09]

Anywhere between 45-55 inches of snow would be my call for this winter. Atleast, for DTX.

[michsnowfreak]

Translation.. My prediction of 35.5 inches made you cringe. I would hardly say 35.5 is a "disaster" thats only about 5-6 inches below normal. Maybe minus one synaptic system. Your correct..we are now somewhat overdue for a wake up call! I hope Im wrong but it WILL one day happen. Heck just look at the numbers you posted for Detroit La Nina Winters. There are a few really crappy winters if your a snow lover. No one knows the amount of snow we will get this season! Thats why a guess is a guess. So your guessing 50-70 im guessing 35.5. Hedge your bets! lol

Well I wouldnt exactly say cringe, actually what I was getting at was that the bar has been raised in every aspect. I was assuming in predicting 35.5" you were foreseeing a crappy winter, rather than one of just slightly below normal snowfall. As you can see by the La Nina numbers I posted, there were a lot of good winters (remember, 50"+ IS a good winter for Detroit), but some crappy ones too. But we clearly, CLEARLY have recent trends/cycles on our side for it leaning on the snowier side of Ninas. But again, its all just a guess.

[wisconsinwx]

Not really relevant to the current status of this winter, but the last 5 or 6 February's have been crazy snowy. Here are the amounts at MKE:

06-07: 23.7"

07-08: 31.0"

08-09: 7.9"

09-10: 16.7"

10-11: 29.6"

That's really been the difference maker and the reason the recent seasons have been so snowy (along with very snowy Decembers as well), 08-09 notwithstanding.

[Thundersnow12]

Caplan going with -2 overall for temps this winter and 46-52" for snowfall but not too confident in the snow department.

[Hoosier]

Caplan going with -2 overall for temps this winter and 46-52" for snowfall but not too confident in the snow department.

I'd probably go above average snow around there...maybe knock it down a bit though to something like 40-50".

[michsnowfreak]

Not really relevant to the current status of this winter, but the last 5 or 6 February's have been crazy snowy. Here are the amounts at MKE:

06-07: 23.7"

07-08: 31.0"

08-09: 7.9"

09-10: 16.7"

10-11: 29.6"

That's really been the difference maker and the reason the recent seasons have been so snowy (along with very snowy Decembers as well), 08-09 notwithstanding.

Same at Detroit. Climo for February is 10.4"" LOL:

Feb07- 14.1"

Feb08- 24.2"

Feb09- 8.5"

Feb10- 27.0"

Feb11- 31.2"

[Tropical]

Not really relevant to the current status of this winter, but the last 5 or 6 February's have been crazy snowy. Here are the amounts at MKE:

06-07: 23.7"

07-08: 31.0"

08-09: 7.9"

09-10: 16.7"

10-11: 29.6"

That's really been the difference maker and the reason the recent seasons have been so snowy (along with very snowy Decembers as well), 08-09 notwithstanding.

Looking good for about 2.5" this Feb to even it out.

[KokomoWX]

Today was Media Day at IND and they thumbed their nose at Hoosier's & Chicago WX's dismal winter forecasts.

[Chicago WX]

Today was Media Day at IND and they thumbed their nose at Hoosier's & Chicago WX's dismal winter forecasts.

I haven't made my LAF winter forecast yet.

Though I do like the "Gut Feeling..." part at the top of that photo.

[wisconsinwx]

Looking good for about 2.5" this Feb to even it out.

The problem for you is, even if MKE gets 2.5 inches, Mt Saukville alone is good for an extra 10" per winter month.

[jhamps10]

Today was Media Day at IND and they thumbed their nose at Hoosier's & Chicago WX's dismal winter forecasts.

I seen on twitter from Ch. 13 that Chris Wright was predicting 10 different measurable snowfall events for indy this winter...

[Hoosier]

Today was Media Day at IND and they thumbed their nose at Hoosier's & Chicago WX's dismal winter forecasts.

That's actually not that different than mine. A little more snow but not much.

[Chicago WX]

For those that never venture into the main forum, RaleighWx's winter forecast: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/28827-my-winter-2011-12-forecast/page__pid__1090746#entry1090746

[andyhb]

For those that never venture into the main forum, RaleighWx's winter forecast: http://www.americanw...46#entry1090746

Yeah, I gave that a read, very solid forecast.

[BowMeHunter]

Looking good for about 2.5" this Feb to even it out.

then hopefully march gives 27" to even out the last two puking march's

[kab2791]

Bill Deedler's Summarized Outlook for SE MI

Check this out, Bill Deedler, former DTX meteorologist/weather historian, posts excellent winter outlooks for SE MI. This is a simplified version that gives you a few fast facts like temp/precip/snowfall, more details to follow in a later Blog posting.

[michsnowfreak]

Bill Deedler's Summarized Outlook for SE MI

Check this out, Bill Deedler, former DTX meteorologist/weather historian, posts excellent winter outlooks for SE MI. This is a simplified version that gives you a few fast facts like temp/precip/snowfall, more details to follow in a later Blog posting.

Its always a pleasure to read Bills writeups!

[hm8]

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2011/11/final-2011-2012-winter-forecast.html

[michsnowfreak]

http://theweathercen...r-forecast.html

[Hoosier]

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2011/11/final-2011-2012-winter-forecast.html

What's up with these snow maps? They don't seem to be really consistent.

[Chicago WX]

I recently threw this together, La Nina winters (values for DJF per CPC, 1949-50 to present) for the LAF area using the WL COOP for temperatures and precipitation and a combo of local sites for season snowfall. I'm sure the majority are not interested in LAF stuff, but I thought I'd post it for the heck of it.

[Chicago WX]

Same deal as above, but this time for Chicago.

10"+ snowstorms in La Nina winters

December 5-8, 1950...13.3"

February 23-25, 1965...11.5"

January 1-3, 1999...21.6"

February 18, 2000...11.1"

January 31-February 2, 2011...21.2"

MDW: 1949-50 through 1975-76

ORD: 1984-85 through 2010-11

[michsnowfreak]

Same deal as above, but this time for Chicago.

10"+ snowstorms in La Nina winters

December 5-8, 1950...13.3"

February 23-25, 1965...11.5"

January 1-3, 1999...21.6"

February 18, 2000...11.1"

January 31-February 2, 2011...21.2"

MDW: 1949-50 through 1975-76

ORD: 1984-85 through 2010-11

Ive never understood looking at past storms on nws sites when they count something like that. How is Dec 5-8 the same storm? LOL If they did that at DTX then Detroit would probably have a lot more 10"+ storms.

[Chicago WX]

Ive never understood looking at past storms on nws sites when they count something like that. How is Dec 5-8 the same storm? LOL If they did that at DTX then Detroit would probably have a lot more 10"+ storms.

Looking at the obs on Wunderground for MDW, it did snow (or do something) for pretty much the entire period from late on the 5th into early on the 8th.

Starting here on the 5th: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KMDW/1950/12/5/DailyHistory.html

Below are the dailies at MDW for that storm, last two columns are snowfall and snow depth. Yeah seems a bit questionable having a 4-day calendar day storm, but I guess it's good enough for LOT.

1950-12-05	33.0	27.0	0.01	0.3	0.005
1950-12-06	36.0	31.0	0.66	5.6	4
1950-12-07	36.0	9.0	0.54	5.4	4
1950-12-08	25.0	15.0	0.2	2	9 

[Chicago WX]

First off, I do not consider myself proficient at doing long range forecasting. Still, I like to venture a guess just for giggles. Which leads me to my 2011-12 winter guess for LAF. I guess my methodology is sorta complex, as I'm trying to factor in short/medium range tendencies with respect to ENSO, NAO, AO, PDO, etc etc...as well as using analog years or years that are similar to 2011. Really I'm in over my head, but here's what I came up with anyway. Warm/wet to start, cold/drier conditions for the last 2/3 of winter for LAF.

Temperature/precipitation departures based off the 1981-10 normals.

December 2011

Average temp: 33.5º (+3.0º)

Precipitation: 4.50" (+1.99")

Snowfall: 5.0"

January 2012

Average temperature: 23.0º (-3.5º)

Precipitation: 1.30" (-0.56")

Snowfall: 6.0"

February 2012

Average temperature: 27.5º (-3.0º)

Precipitation: 1.65" (-0.11")

Snowfall: 8.0"

Winter (DJF) 2011-12

Average temperature: 28.0º (-1.1º)

Precipitation: 7.45" (+1.32")

Snowfall: 19.0"

2011-12 total season snowfall: 24.0"

Miscellaneous stats

Number of 0.1"+ snowfalls: 17

Number of 6.0"+ snowfalls: 0

Timeframe for the biggest snowstorm: late February/early March

Number of below zero min temps: 8

Number of 50º+ max temps: 11

Chance that I'm completely wrong: 100%

EDIT to add my season snowfall guesses:

GRB: 60-65"

MSN: 50-55"

MKE: 50-55"

DBQ: 40-45"

MLI: 32-37"

ORD: 40-45"

PIA: 25-30"

STL: 20-25"

EVV: 10-15"

IND: 17-22"

FWA: 30-35"

SBN: 65-70"

GRR: 70-75"

DTW: 42-47"

CLE: 65-70"

CMH: 25-30"

CVG: 12-17"

SDF: 10-15"

[Hoosier]

First off, I do not consider myself proficient at doing long range forecasting. Still, I like to venture a guess just for giggles. Which leads me to my 2011-12 winter guess for LAF. I guess my methodology is sorta complex, as I'm trying to factor in short/medium range tendencies with respect to ENSO, NAO, AO, PDO, etc etc...as well as using analog years or years that are similar to 2011. Really I'm in over my head, but here's what I came up with anyway. Warm/wet to start, cold/drier conditions for the last 2/3 of winter for LAF.

Temperature/precipitation departures based off the 1981-10 normals.

December 2011

Average temp: 33.5º (+3.0º)

Precipitation: 4.50" (+1.99")

Snowfall: 5.0"

January 2012

Average temperature: 23.0º (-3.5º)

Precipitation: 1.30" (-0.56")

Snowfall: 6.0"

February 2012

Average temperature: 27.5º (-3.0º)

Precipitation: 1.65" (-0.11")

Snowfall: 8.0"

Winter (DJF) 2011-12

Average temperature: 28.0º (-1.1º)

Precipitation: 7.45" (+1.32")

Snowfall: 19.0"

2011-12 total season snowfall: 24.0"

Miscellaneous stats

Number of 0.1"+ snowfalls: 17

Number of 6.0"+ snowfalls: 0

Timeframe for the biggest snowstorm: late February/early March

Number of below zero min temps: 8

Number of 50º+ max temps: 11

Chance that I'm completely wrong: 100%

Looks pretty good overall. You're a bit warmer than me but that could certainly verify if the AO/NAO don't cooperate.

I guess you're thinking we get some decent snow in March or April?