earthlight Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Awesome radar shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Awesome radar shot having flash backs to last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Tropical downpour right now in NE Queens. Have only .35" so far, but coming down pretty hard at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 you two should try a new show, this one is getting old. It's still raining with embedded heavier bands. Also, let's see what happens later with the second part. LOL-just calling it as I see it--2nd part likely to miss to the east. SE New England will get that and the bigger rainfall totals. Euro and GFS had the right idea on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 FWIW the NAM is much drier for this afternoon/evening LOL-just calling it as I see it--2nd part likely to miss to the east. SE New England will get that and the bigger rainfall totals. Euro and GFS had the right idea on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 FWIW the NAM is much drier for this afternoon/evening Gotta love the NAM.... dry slot pushing north just off ACY....I don't see much after that. Most places get their rains b/w now and noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 having flash backs to last winter Seriously. That is a pretty sick radar shot. The first batch isn't even over yet and people are calling it already? Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Seriously. That is a pretty sick radar shot. The first batch isn't even over yet and people are calling it already? Wtf? its the same two people over and over, so lets not generalize. Its pouring here and the echos are building with a strong tropical like feed into this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Thru 11am: JFK: .74" NYC: .50" LGA: .46" EWR: .40" ISP: .35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 its the same two people over and over, so lets not generalize. Its pouring here and the echos are building with a strong tropical like feed into this thing. Some people just do not know how to use a radar and nowcast. Strong rain banding can produce a significant amount of rain in a short period. And as you stated, the tropical feed keeps intensifying the rainfall rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 LOL-just calling it as I see it--2nd part likely to miss to the east. SE New England will get that and the bigger rainfall totals. Euro and GFS had the right idea on this one. The gfs already busted horribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I think this is the first event in a while that every model missed on the location and the timing of the heavy rain that came through this morning. Looking at the complex interaction between several lows, tropical moisture, an unusually deep closed low so far south I can see why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The gfs already busted horribly. Yup. GFS had .10"-.25" for NYC and area for several runs in a row. The entire area is close to .50" and JFK is approaching 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 got ALOT of rain up here. looking back at Earthlight's radar loop, looks like this area was under the gun earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 12pm: JFK: .76" NYC: .58" EWR: .54" LGA: .49" ISP: .39" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The gfs already busted horribly. I said the GFS had the right idea....with the lower amounts and heaviest going to SE new england...not saying it was right verbatim....the NAM had 2-3 inches yesterday while the GFS was clearly too low. Euro was also lower.... given the 12pm totals with most areas showing .60 or less and radar showing only light or moderate rains over the area and nothing south of central Jersey shore, most don't get more than an inch out of this. 2nd batch is questionable-stuff off NC is heading NE and will clearly miss while another Batch over VA doesnt look all that impressive. Upton radar looks shows heavy stuff heading to SE New England... Just my 2 cents of course http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 .63" in New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 12pm: JFK: .76" NYC: .58" EWR: .54" LGA: .49" ISP: .39" 0.77 in southern queens now, we may squeak out an inch but the main rain is pretty much over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 prob another 30min of light showers up here, then it breaks up. I think Danbury is around .85 for the day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 prob another 30min of light showers up here, then it breaks up. I think Danbury is around .85 for the day so far. Some more precip breaking out over the delmarva, even some convection it appears. The last few bands to come through were far more tropical than the rains this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 .71 here.... crappy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Yeah i'd say it has the feel of a showery humid september day rather than a raw cold October day. Some more precip breaking out over the delmarva, even some convection it appears. The last few bands to come through were far more tropical than the rains this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The SREF has the potential for convection overnight through 03z and the 15z RUC has over 1" of additional precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 ^^ I wouldn't be surprised to see some thunderstorms develop overnight in good WAA. We probably see slowly rising temps tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 you can see where its going to come from looking at the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The SREF has the potential for convection overnight through 03z and the 15z RUC has over 1" of additional precip. the ecmwf has another .5-1" after 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 the ecmwf has another .5-1" after 00z And it has 1.50" total rain now (including this morning). .50"-.75" from 8pm tonight through 8am tomorrow. Unlike the GFS and NAM, the 2nd piece in the Carolinas, hits NYC right on the head, instead of missing way east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 And it has 1.50" total rain now (including this morning). .50"-.75" from 8pm tonight through 8am tomorrow. Unlike the GFS and NAM, the 2nd piece in the Carolinas, hits NYC right on the head, instead of missing way east. exactly, it's not sliding east. Not one rain drop has missed NYC this year, why would be it be any different? suspect some type of feedback on the GFS and NAM. Euro is not going to mess up this close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 exactly, it's not sliding east. Not one rain drop has missed NYC this year, why would be it be any different? suspect some type of feedback on the GFS and NAM. Euro is not going to mess up this close. if that happens, I will cry uncle! Hear what you are saying about things not missing, but have a hard time seeing how it comes straight north when usually precip off hatteras tends to slide northeast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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