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Chasing JOVA


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Hey Josh; good times, having the opportunity to follow your journey!

Check out the hurricane of 1959; also occuring in October. The basic path is different but it takes the same general direction at landfall. A major problem was mudslides from the surrounding mountains and the dangers associated with homeless snakes and scorpions. Could happen again.

Please give some thought to how you would drive back to an airport if vulnerable roads are blocked by mudslides.

Something else to think about; the Manzanillo Bay could have blow out tides with spectacular views; assuming landfall just to the east of the Bay.

Thanks!

Yeah, I'm very familiar with the 1959 hurricane, given that it's the strongest known landfall in the region. I don't know if you read the EPAC thread, but I discuss the cyclone history of the region often-- I've researched all the major landfall events in great detail-- and the 1959 'cane is one of the most interesting. As I mentioned above, it's the last one to really nail Manzanillo (although I don't believe the city was actually in the eyewall).

Getting back to the airport is a concern, but I can't worry about that or let that influence my decision-making-- otherwise I'll be too conservative. Can't play it safe-- have to go for it!

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Made it to Puerto Vallarta. It's very humid, very green, very tropical.

I'm totally beat. Need to sleep.

The forecast really seems to suggest Manzanillo, so I'm sleeping here in Puerto Vallarta tonight, then driving down to Manzanillo in the morning.

The forecast is looking interesting, huh? Real red-meat stuff if it pans out.

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Pretty tight looking.

Yep, it's strenghtening at a decent clip...it's maybe a 90kts storm now... <70C now encircling a progressively more defined eye. I think Jova will peak as a Cat 4, but ERC will probably prevent from having a LF at that category... but she will still be a major.

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Cat 2 now...eye is definitely developing.

AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST. JOVA IS MOVING

TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF

THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY

AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90

MILES...150 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

post-6489-0-72578000-1318228526.png

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Strolled around the city center tonight-- walked in the downtown area along the waterfront promenade.

Puerto Vallarta is pleasant place-- reminds me of a tropical, Mexican version of San Francisco, in that it's very hilly, with some neighborhoods on dramatic peaks fairly close to the waterfront. It reminds me a bit of Veracruz, but it's prettier and more lively, and-- for better or for worse-- feels more tourist-friendly. The sunset on the bay was postcard-perfect this evening, with large waves thundering against the rocks next to the seawall. (Were the swells bigger and heavier than usual?) I wondered. A DJ was playing music in what seemed to be the main city square, and lots of people were dancing-- sort of like Mexican square dancing. It was pretty awesome. The people seem nice-- and the drivers are especially courteous. (On multiple occasions, they voluntarily stopped and either waved or flashed their lights to tell me to cross.)

I'm staying in one of several very tall high-rise hotels just N of downtown. I'm high up, with a balcony overlooking the ocean. (In fact, I can hear the waves crashing hard, even with the sliding-glass door closed.)

Back to hurricanes... A lot of the city has elevation-- lots of it-- so a lot of it would be fine in a major 'cane. It's no Port Lavaca, where the entire city just looks ready to get wiped by a bad 'cane. This having been said, the downtown is along the water, and a lot of it seems to be below, say, 20 ft. Still, I don't see Jova as a huge threat to the city, as it would be coming from the S, from over land. A much more dangerous setup for this city would be a Kenna-like track, with the cyclone coming from the SW or WSW and making landfall just N of the city. In fact, Kenna was a very close call-- a track just a tad further S would have been devastating.

Going back to bed.

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Back to hurricanes... A lot of the city has elevation-- lots of it-- so a lot of it would be fine in a major 'cane. It's no Port Lavaca, where the entire city just looks ready to get wiped by a bad 'cane. This having been said, the downtown is along the water, and a lot of it seems to be below, say, 20 ft. Still, I don't see Jova as a huge threat to the city, as it would be coming from the S, from over land. A much more dangerous setup for this city would be a Kenna-like track, with the cyclone coming from the SW or WSW and making landfall just N of the city. In fact, Kenna was a very close call-- a track just a tad further S would have been devastating.

Manzanillo, on the other hand, at least by looking at satellite images...:yikes:

Also, Josh, make sure to take some motion sickness pills/etc. before driving down there. The highway south out of PVR looks a bit windy in some spots.

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Got your message. Give me a call whenever. Looking like the real deal. :)

INIT 10/0900Z 16.3N 107.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 16.6N 106.4W 115 KT 135 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 17.3N 105.7W 115 KT 135 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 18.1N 105.2W 110 KT 125 MPH

200 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JOVA HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH THE SMALL EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY FROM EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR...BUT JOVA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL IN MEXICO. GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS...THE UPDATE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS NEAR THE UPPER-END OF THE GUIDANCE.

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Josh: Glomming excitement from 3500 miles away. :popcorn::scooter: This roll of the dice looks to deliver "boxcars".

NHC has the center coming ashore along the east rim of Manzanillo Bay at 11 PM local time Tuesday evening.

My hunch is that at sunset you will have strong NE winds howling down out of the mountains as well as a

possible blowout tide in the bay. Once the center moves north of the city, waters may slosh strongly back

up into that bay and possibly engulf any seashell collectors. Of course, it will be the middle of the night and hopefully

people will stay above the slosh zone.

How quickly will the storm decay with return flow coming down from the mountains?

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Good luck Josh! I'll be following this one closely, I lived in this area for 7 months back in the early 90s, when I worked for Club Med (Playa Blanca, about 1 hour north of Manzanillo, closed in the late 90s). Gorgeous place, hope it doesn't get destroyed.

When I was there, there was a fishing village, Barra de Navidad, located about 30 minutes north of Manzanillo. It sat on a long beach that ran for probably close to one mile. If it's still there, and if Jova is coming in north of Manzanillo, you may want to check it out. As I recall, there weren't too many towns right on the shoreline down there, a lot of that was taken by private hotels and residences. If Manzanillo is the better spot, there's Las Hadas (hotel used in the movie "10") which is on the northern edge of the city, just as you're getting in to the area. Back then, once you went by Las Hadas, the highway ran right along the Pacific for about 2 miles before bringing you right into the city. If it's still like that, viewing will be awesome!! Of course - no telling how much has changed since I was there over 20 years ago...

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Manzanillo, on the other hand, at least by looking at satellite images...:yikes:

Also, Josh, make sure to take some motion sickness pills/etc. before driving down there. The highway south out of PVR looks a bit windy in some spots.

Yeah, I'm nt looking forward to the drive! Thank God it's retty short-- just a few hours.

Happy chasing, man. Mom Nature threw me some STC table scraps SUN evening....kinda cool.

Hey, thanks, man! I hope the STC thing surprises everyone. :)

Got your message. Give me a call whenever. Looking like the real deal. :)

Thanks-- I'll call ya from the road.

Best i-Cyclone chase in years.?.? I just hope for some daytime action.

You and me both! I was just thinking that last night-- that is the NHc's forecast verifies, it will be my most important chase in many years, perhaps ever-- and how it better darn happen during the day! Grrrr.

But... Believe it or not, my number-one goal with chasing is just to be in the storm and see, hear, and "feel" it--I just love the feeling so much. In my early days as a chaser, I didn't even bring a videocam! So even if it's at night and the footage is more limited, it's still exciting to me. I don't have to document it to make it real.

But, yeah, I'm praying this is a daytime event!

Josh: Glomming excitement from 3500 miles away. :popcorn::scooter: This roll of the dice looks to deliver "boxcars".

NHC has the center coming ashore along the east rim of Manzanillo Bay at 11 PM local time Tuesday evening.

My hunch is that at sunset you will have strong NE winds howling down out of the mountains as well as a

possible blowout tide in the bay. Once the center moves north of the city, waters may slosh strongly back

up into that bay and possibly engulf any seashell collectors. Of course, it will be the middle of the night and hopefully

people will stay above the slosh zone.

How quickly will the storm decay with return flow coming down from the mountains?

Yeah, it will be a pretty dramatic picture if the cyclone moves over or just E of Manzanillo. I'm about to head down and I'm itching with curiosity-- wondering what the bay looks like, etc.

Jova is not a microcane, but it's on the small side, so I think it'll die fast-- which is great. Who needs all that inland flooding?

Is there a chase partner yet? GFDL is a bit nervous, awfully close to missing C. Corrientes. I know the HWRF is not respected, but glass full optimism...

yeah, then sudden model spread is disturbing. Grrrrrr.

Good luck Josh! I'll be following this one closely, I lived in this area for 7 months back in the early 90s, when I worked for Club Med (Playa Blanca, about 1 hour north of Manzanillo, closed in the late 90s). Gorgeous place, hope it doesn't get destroyed.

When I was there, there was a fishing village, Barra de Navidad, located about 30 minutes north of Manzanillo. It sat on a long beach that ran for probably close to one mile. If it's still there, and if Jova is coming in north of Manzanillo, you may want to check it out. As I recall, there weren't too many towns right on the shoreline down there, a lot of that was taken by private hotels and residences. If Manzanillo is the better spot, there's Las Hadas (hotel used in the movie "10") which is on the northern edge of the city, just as you're getting in to the area. Back then, once you went by Las Hadas, the highway ran right along the Pacific for about 2 miles before bringing you right into the city. If it's still like that, viewing will be awesome!! Of course - no telling how much has changed since I was there over 20 years ago...

thank you for this great information! I'm heading down there now and this is so helpful. I'll get there wil a whole day to spare so I'll check out these places-- they sound awesome.

P.S. I'll look for Barra de Navidad on the way down. I found it on a map.

good luck

Thnaks, Ian! And thanks to you (or whomever) for the pinnage. :wub:

goodluck a 125 mph storm should be fun for you

Thanks! It would be the first really good hurricane for me in a long time.

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I just got up from 12 hours of almost continuous sleep. I'm really excited about this, because sleep deprivation has been a chronic problem on my chases. I've talked with Scott and Jorge about this a lot-- how hard it is to make yourself close the computer and just sleep. The result is that I'm always a zombie by the time the cyclone arrives. I'm trying to do it differently this time.

Anyhoo...

Despite the new spread in the models, I'm heading down to Manzanillo out of basic belief in the NHC and their forecast logic, which is splitting the difference between the various models.

I'm not *too* worried about the cyclone missing Cabo Corrientes altogether, as it only needs to move about another degree E to kill that possibility-- as the credible left-most models take the cyclone due N, with no real bend W.

It's raining-- which creates the illusion that the cyclone is closer than it is and makes me somewhat antsy. While time isn't an issue with this one-- I got down here with plenty of time to spare-- it looks to be a somewhat challenging chase-- flying solo with an intense cyclone in rural Mexico. There are always going to be those butterflies-- even I get 'em. But it's silly to sit around and think of what could go wrong-- if I did that, I'd never leave L.A.

OK, heading down...

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Had the advisory been one hour later, they would have called Jova a 4, big nice eye developed in the last frame

a7CPK.jpg

the eye has cleared out a lot since sunrise.. it was pretty obscured the first few frames early.

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