CUmet Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 That microwave pass certainly looks a lot better than last night. The shear appears to be manageable, as the significant increase in shear shown in yesterday's 12z ECMWF has not materialized. This will probably stay about steady state all the way up to landfall. Given the southeasterly shear vector, the heaviest eyewall convection will be in an arc from NW counterclockwise to SE of the center. Taking into account the slow storm motion, the best conditions will probably be in the S-SE octant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 That microwave pass certainly looks a lot better than last night. The shear appears to be manageable, as the significant increase in shear shown in yesterday's 12z ECMWF has not materialized. This will probably stay about steady state all the way up to landfall. Given the southeasterly shear vector, the heaviest eyewall convection will be in an arc from NW counterclockwise to SE of the center. Taking into account the slow storm motion, the best conditions will probably be in the S-SE octant. Yep, agree, it rebounded some structure-wise, and OHC appears to be counteracting the shear... even the outflow is fair to the SE vs poor late yesterday. Depending on what recon brings home, I'd set LF intensity to that value +-5 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I have told Josh that the region from Chamela to Tenacatita looks like the ground zero area... it's a fairly narrow spot with good staging places... even a wobble east would be no problem... the thing is if it wobbles north, that would make the chase a bit more difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Thanks, CUmet-- good to hear you feel it's looking healthier. Jorge-- yeah, I hear ya. I'm really hoping for Bahia Tenacatita or further S-- although I have two potential spots N of there. Checking out of the hotel and hitting the road now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 The NE quad is the weakest link, hopefully it can hold until landfall, there's some dry air intruding from there... it hasn't made it to the center yet. If the strong convection to the south can wrap some of the heaviest convection and stop more dry air entrainment, we'll be all set. Recon should tell us if the eyewall is open/opening to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 More obvious on IR, but I can see the dimple on vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Recon shows Jova weakened a good bit overnight, and it's more likely an 80-90 kts storm, with an extrapolated pressure around 974mb. 90FL 72SFMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Vortex still pretty tilted with the warm core offset from the center on the recon pass. 15-16 C flight level temps at the ENE RMW, but only 9-10 C at the WNW RMW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Heading N on Highway 200. Will stop and assess in La Manzanilla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Re: the weakening... On the bright side, I can chase it much more aggressively now. I found some very exposed villages that I wouldn't dare stay in during a major-- now they're game. A weaker storm ain't what I want, but it puts a lot more in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 95FL 76 SFMR, 971mb extrapolated pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I think recon is leaving. Boy, I wish they could deploy from a Mexican Air Force base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 My guess is that NHC will "generously" set it at 85kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 My guess is that NHC will "generously" set it at 85kts. In the most recent animated loop, it seems that the eye quickly advanced north of the dense central overcast and fell apart/opened up on the north side. My interpretation could be incorrect; perhaps the eye is reforming back under the DCO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 In La Manzanilla. The would be a truly ideal place-- a town right on the water. Re: recon, the pressure going down a few mb is a good thing, I guess. By the way, I've met up with Jim Edds and we're tag teaming this one. He's one of the best cameramen out there when it comes to getting storm footage-- his shots are always gorgeous-- and we have a lot of mutual respect for each other. I'm leading the way in terms of navigation, he's giving me shooting tips-- mutual benefits. Looks to be a nighttime landfall-- so we're planning to use each others' headlights. We did that when we first met each other during Jimena. (Actually, I used his light. ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 In La Manzanilla. The would be a truly ideal place-- a town right on the water. Re: recon, the pressure going down a few mb is a good thing, I guess. By the way, I've met up with Jim Edds and we're tagging teaming this one. He's one of the best cameramen out there when it comes to getting storm footage-- his shots are always gorgeous-- and we have a lot of mutual respect for each other. I'm leading the way in terms of navigation, he's giving me shooting tips-- mutual benefits. Looks to be a nighttime landfall-- so we're planning ti use each others' headlights. We did that when we first met each other during Jimena. (Actually, I used his light. ) I hope you get at least some bendy palm and big surf shots before dusk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 In La Manzanilla. The would be a truly ideal place-- a town right on the water. Re: recon, the pressure going down a few mb is a good thing, I guess. By the way, I've met up with Jim Edds and we're tagging teaming this one. He's one of the best cameramen out there when it comes to getting storm footage-- his shots are always gorgeous-- and we have a lot of mutual respect for each other. I'm leading the way in terms of navigation, he's giving me shooting tips-- mutual benefits. Looks to be a nighttime landfall-- so we're planning ti use each others' headlights. We did that when we first met each other during Jimena. (Actually, I used his light. ) awesome. maybe he can convince you to try the marianas some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Not bad... if it could only attain some symmetry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 In Emiliano Zapata, on the way up to Careyes, to check out that location. Jim and I have parted ways for the time being. The poor guy landed in Guadalajara last night and has been driving since then. He needs to rest-- and also, he wants to set up and start shooting environmental shots, even before he cyclone hits. Me-- I just what to nail the center of this thing, so the scouting continues. La Manzanilla is possible, but Careyes was seeming more likely with the last update. I might return to La Manzanilla if the center stays more NE. This is a good example of how different chasers have different goals. Jim is a top-notch videographer, and the before-storm shooting is an important part of his process. Me-- I'm not really a videographer, and I don't even turn on the camera until the cyclone is hitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Any weather stations with obs between MMPR and MMZO? Manzanillo is 1002 mb with light ENE winds, BTW. With the eye obscuring, its hard to tell, but it might have taken a brief jog more to the East, staring at loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Any weather stations with obs between MMPR and MMZO? Manzanillo is 1002 mb with light ENE winds, BTW. With the eye obscuring, its hard to tell, but it might have taken a brief jog more to the East, staring at loops. Yep, it looks like...it might be a mirage or a wobble... but the Euro had this kind of wobble east in the 12z run...bringing it ashore just NW of Manzanillo, and it was east of the NHC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Decision time for me. I'm at Careyes and the resort is closed, which is a shame, as the 2 pm PDT forecast brings the center ashore here. So my decent choices are to go 1) further up the coast, to a tiny town called Punta Perula (not even marked on Google Maps) or 2) back down to the Bay of Tenacatita, where I have a couple of options: a fancy resort at the W end or La Manzanilla on the E end. Ed and Jorge-- thanks for the IR comments. Does that E wobble look real? (I can't loop on my iPad.) If so, I'll head back down to Bahia Tencatita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I think it has jooged to an East or Northeast heading, but as I said, with the eye obscured, it is hard to tell, and no idea if it is a wobble or will last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Contact info for Cuixmala. Closer to the coast vs. Emiliano Zapata. http://www.cuixmala.com/C/index.html Josh... Here it is. Latest track is right over this spot. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/114641.shtml?gm_track#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Scott sent me info Re: another resort last night-- at Cuitzmala-- and that location would actually be perfect: it's in between Careyes and Bahia Tenacatita. Heading there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
belle Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Hi Josh...wanted to wish you a good hurricane chase. I'm about an hour north of Puerto Vallarta in San Francisco (San Pancho). Most of my preparations are done, just trying to decide if/when I should move to higher ground. My apartment is just off the beach, so it would be nice to stay and see the storm from here. I was told to expect service disruptions some time tonight, but I look forward to reading about your experience when I get back online after the storm. Good luck and enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Decision time for me. I'm at Careyes and the resort is closed, which is a shame, as the 2 pm PDT forecast brings the center ashore here. So my decent choices are 1) to go further up the coast, to a tiny town called Punta Perula (not even marked on Google Maps) or 2) back down to the Bay of Tencatita, where I have a couple of options: a fancy resort at the W end or La Manzanilla on the E end. Ed and Jorge-- thanks for the IR comments. Does that E wobble look real? (I can't loop on my iPad.) If so, I'll head back down to Bahia Tencatita. Download Hurricane HD app will ya, looping is great, surprised you do not have this, also you can loop at the added sat site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Download Hurricane HD app will ya, looping is great, surprised you do not have this, also you can loop at the added sat site. Hey, Steve-- I do have that app. The issue is also my data connectivity-- I'm out in the sticks and even static shots take long to load. I agree, though, it's a cool app. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Cuitzmala is a no go. Heading back down toward Bahia Tenacatita for now-- can adjust later, as needed, with future position updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Keeps dropping when you call... No recon obs and ill defined eye making it hard for solid gauge. Still looks on track by best guesstimate. As it stands now - 1. Emiliano Zapata till the next advisory. Then you still should have enough time to go up/down the coast as warranted unless conditions are already becoming an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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