Ginx snewx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Hey, Steve-- I do have that app. The issue is also my data connectivity-- I'm out in the sticks and even static shots take long to load. I agree, though, it's a cool app. Gotcha, happy hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suwx Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Good luck Josh!!! Looking forward to your upcoming posts!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Scott-- Emiliano Zapata is a tough-looking town, let's just say. I mean, except for the highway going through it, all of the "streets" are uneven dirt. I tried to explore, and it was hard on the car-- not to mention I was constantly worried about hitting the chickens and dogs walking across the street. I'm just of sure it's a viable location. Hmmm. I'm back in La Manzanillo. It has a cozy, comfortable feel. A nice town with extremely friendly locals. Hanging with Jim in a pleasant hotel, trying to decide next steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Have fun Josh, and stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Scott-- Emiliano Zapata is a tough-looking town, let's just say. I mean, except for the highway going through it, all of the "streets" are uneven dirt. I tried to explore, and it was hard on the car-- not to mention I was constantly worried about hitting the chickens and dogs walking across the street. I'm just of sure it's a viable location. Hmmm. I'm back in La Manzanillo. It has a cozy, comfortable feel. A nice town with extremely friendly locals. Hanging with Jim in a pleasant hotel, trying to decide next steps. Just thinking since you were there hanging out till the next advisory. Either way you have plenty of time to head back up the coast if needed. Call me whenever. Should be able to pick you up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 This was the latest track - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 I'm in La Manzanilla still. I was going to head up to the Punta Serena resort at the W end of the Bay, because it'll be a little closer to the landfall point. But that reality is on cliffs, well above the sea... And as I was getting in the car to leave La Manzanilla, the thundering of the waves right next to the downtown area kind of seduced me into staying. So I quickly checked into the hotel, threw on some athletic-wear, and ran out onto the beach to shoot the surf. It was dusk, but I got some OK footage. It's raining like crazy and the town is flooding, but the wind only comes in spurts, separated by calms. By the way, I'm using my waterproof housing for the first time and its awesome. I was walking around in torrential rains with no harm to the camera. Awesome. It's important to me to get in the core of the cyclone, so I'm thinking I might make another excursion up the coast as it nears. Emiliano Zapata is looking like the likely target if the center comes ashore at Cuitzmala, since the coast is inaccessible in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Played with the gamma on the IR, looks kind of crappie small core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Small core is good. It's the big, loose cores I hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 15 mile hurricane force winds, going to be tough for Josh to hit that with latest N wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Thanks for the encouraging words, Steve. I enjoy the unique challenges that each chase, brings-- and the war stories I can tell afterward. If each cyclone came right to me as I sat in my cozy armchair, this wouldn't be the awesomely-cool extreme sport that it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Thanks for the encouraging words, Steve. I enjoy the unique challenges that each chase, brings-- and the war stories I can tell afterward. If each cyclone came right to me as I sat in my cozy armchair, this wouldn't be the awesomely-cool extreme sport that it is. Why so harsh, just observing loops etc, not trying to be a downer. 15 miles is not much, great luck dude. Just observed a wobble that may mean tons to you. I will shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Why so harsh, just observing loops etc, not trying to be a downer. 15 miles is not much, great luck dude. Just observed a wobble that may mean tons to you. I will shut up. Josh: Very challenging to know the exact landfall; the current animation of color-enhanced IR from msfc.gov indicates that the entire central overcast has become more circular and symmetrical and that the central circulation just recently wobbled east toward the coast....wobbles within wobbles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 Josh: Very challenging to know the exact landfall; the current animation of color-enhanced IR from msfc.gov indicates that the entire central overcast has become more circular and symmetrical and that the central circulation just recently wobbled east toward the coast....wobbles within wobbles... Yeah, its especially tough without radar. Grrrrr. I think I need to head up the coast as the core comes in. I want to get in that eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Looks like it has taken a step backwards from earlier...The northeastern side is still struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 The latest NHC position suggests a slight bend more N. Heading up the coast now-- going toward Emiliano Zapata, maybe further N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 The latest NHC position suggests a slight bend more N. Heading up the coast now-- going toward Emiliano Zapata, maybe further N. Sorry, what I saw, did not mean to be the bearer of not so good news from my sofa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 12, 2011 Author Share Posted October 12, 2011 On the road, heading N on Hwy 200. Gonna get in that eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Cloud tops remain very cold and the good news from the NHC Update is no further weakening until after landfall. Now hit the core Josh and you'll have yet another sucessful, data rich, intercept under your belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 On the road, heading N on Hwy 200. Gonna get in that eye. I'm looking at the animation at msfc.gov and feel it is not going to cross the coast more than 20 miles west of Manzanillo, in fact there is an airport on the coast Playa d'Oro and a town nearby, La Cienega, that would be ground zero in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Looks like Careyes-Emiliano Zapata is gonna be ground zero (assuming a 010 heading) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 I'm looking at the animation at msfc.gov and feel it is not going to cross the coast more than 20 miles west of Manzanillo, in fact there is an airport on the coast Playa d'Oro and a town nearby, La Cienega, that would be ground zero in my opinion. From that point up to Melaque looks like it will be the landfall area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Looks like the eye is trying to popup one last time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Josh might be lucky, it looks like there's a bout of strengthening just prior to LF, which appears to occur in about 1 hour. MWs from SSMIS and TRMM (1:20 hours apart, and 3.5 hours ago) show very slight improvement, with a strengthening eyewall trend. Extrapolating that with the increasingly better looking IR, I may assume eyewall is, if not closed, very close to be. No more MWs until after landfall , so IR is all what's left now (no radar, and very probably no surface obs, until Josh gets back) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 If that's the eye I'm thinking Chamela.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 If that's the eye I'm thinking Chamela.... There's a tilt on that map.... you can calibrate it with the SSDs one, or loop the MSFC one... it looks like it's going into that small Careyes bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Here is the IR from GOES West. Looks like landfall into Careyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 There's a tilt on that map.... you can calibrate it with the SSDs one, or loop the MSFC one... it looks like it's going into that small Careyes bay. Yeah. I had sent him a text right after he left to shoot for somewhere between Careyes and Punta Puerla/Chamela. Not sure if he got it but feel optimistic that he was gonna head further N then EZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011 ...CENTER OF JOVA MAKING LANDFALL IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF JALISCO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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