buckeye Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 oh and for the Mid-Atlantic folk...the 12z UKMET tracks the surface low from Newport News to just inside Cape May. how about before that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 GFS ensemble mean tracks the low from W NC/E TN to Chesapeake Bay to S of LI to E of BOS. It looks like it would be a pretty big snow for interior PA and NY State...big spread it looks like though based on the bagginess of the isobars. I see that, it looks like 3 of the members, technically 1/4th of them, track the low well S of the others. They also just happen to be a good 8hr or so "slower" than the operational, and the other members. Why? I can only see a few hundred mile sector of the US, but those three members seem to really slow things down as the low exits eastern TN from there they head ENE to near ORF rather the NE like the OP. Not sure why, and I can't necessarily see if it it's due to better blocking based on the maps I have available. Those three would be big snowfalls even for DC. But.... The GFS isn't exactly our most skillful 96hr - 120hr model. It's second best. Still, though, it's usually pretty decent at this time range. Seeing our typically "pretty decent, but not best" model with so much scatter at 108hr isn't encouraging. Seeing a few members showing something that, frankly, I genuinely can't remember the last time it actually verified (this type of scenario) and especially can't remember outside the context of deeply entrenched arctic air...well, not encouraging either. The much more likely, and certainly seen a number of times, OP scenario just "makes more sense". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Ha, was just gonna ask you that. The UKMET has been consistently east of the other models. that it has...though the other models have shifted east in the last few runs also. The 00s run was a bit further northwest...but this run is slower and southeast due to a weaker shortwave and less interaction from the PV. Weaker shortwave and later phase with the PV=better chance of measurable snow for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 that it has...though the other models have shifted east in the last few runs also. The 00s run was a bit further northwest...but this run is slower and southeast due to a weaker shortwave and less interaction from the PV. Weaker shortwave and later phase with the PV=better chance of measurable snow for I-95. I assume this is the reasoning for my question above (regarding the three EGFS outliers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I assume this is the reasoning for my question above (regarding the three EGFS outliers). Oh well it wasn't...but it kinda works I think More separation from the PV seems to be the key to getting a better solution for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I see that, it looks like 3 of the members, technically 1/4th of them, track the low well S of the others. They also just happen to be a good 8hr or so "slower" than the operational, and the other members. Why? I can only see a few hundred mile sector of the US, but those three members seem to really slow things down as the low exits eastern TN from there they head ENE to near ORF rather the NE like the OP. Not sure why, and I can't necessarily see if it it's due to better blocking based on the maps I have available. Those three would be big snowfalls even for DC. But.... The GFS isn't exactly our most skillful 96hr - 120hr model. It's second best. Still, though, it's usually pretty decent at this time range. Seeing our typically "pretty decent, but not best" model with so much scatter at 108hr isn't encouraging. Seeing a few members showing something that, frankly, I genuinely can't remember the last time it actually verified (this type of scenario) and especially can't remember outside the context of deeply entrenched arctic air...well, not encouraging either. The much more likely, and certainly seen a number of times, OP scenario just "makes more sense". But, encouragingly, none of the members track the low west of the Apps. Only a couple take it on or just east of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 LOL 594 dm ridge near Greenland at 174 hours... This has got to be a record or something right? I mean WTF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 yes, but to my eyes, and their untrained, its east based. and look at the almost zonal flow across the us. That appears to be a warm view. All the real cold seems to be on the other side of the globe. Someone correct me if I,m wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 yes, but to my eyes, and their untrained, its east based. and look at the almost zonal flow across the us. That appears to be a warm view. All the real cold seems to be on the other side of the globe. Someone correct me if I,m wrong. It's a cold, dry look for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 As usual, the Euro says the GFS is on crack. Expect the GFS to yield soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 As usual, the Euro says the GFS is on crack. Expect the GFS to yield soon. Wouldn't go that far. Ukie is on the GFS side. Maybe the euro is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Wouldn't go that far. Ukie is on the GFS side. Maybe the euro is wrong. The UKMET is garbage. Blind leading the blind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The UKMET is garbage. Blind leading the blind... Garbage as in second highest scoring model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Garbage as in second highest scoring model? euro has been flipping back and forth as of late! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Here is the 12 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 yes, but to my eyes, and their untrained, its east based. and look at the almost zonal flow across the us. That appears to be a warm view. All the real cold seems to be on the other side of the globe. Someone correct me if I,m wrong. Warm? Surface temps in the 30s in Southern NC is not warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 The UKMET is garbage. Blind leading the blind... Based on what, it actually has a better score than the GFS at H5 in the NH over the past 30 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 I see that, it looks like 3 of the members, technically 1/4th of them, track the low well S of the others. They also just happen to be a good 8hr or so "slower" than the operational, and the other members. Why? I can only see a few hundred mile sector of the US, but those three members seem to really slow things down as the low exits eastern TN from there they head ENE to near ORF rather the NE like the OP. Not sure why, and I can't necessarily see if it it's due to better blocking based on the maps I have available. Those three would be big snowfalls even for DC. But.... The GFS isn't exactly our most skillful 96hr - 120hr model. It's second best. Still, though, it's usually pretty decent at this time range. Seeing our typically "pretty decent, but not best" model with so much scatter at 108hr isn't encouraging. Seeing a few members showing something that, frankly, I genuinely can't remember the last time it actually verified (this type of scenario) and especially can't remember outside the context of deeply entrenched arctic air...well, not encouraging either. The much more likely, and certainly seen a number of times, OP scenario just "makes more sense". I agree but the ukmet solution does make one a little hesitant even though I think its solution is not one that I can remember offhand. I'm a little perplexed at the models drifting back apart when the seemed to be converging on a solution. However, usually if a model is wrong with an upper low when there is not that great of blocking, it is to have the upper low too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Time Sensitive: I'll post permanate links later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Wouldn't go that far. Ukie is on the GFS side. Maybe the euro is wrong. Interesting quote from Buffalo AFD. Still don't know if it would have that much of a "white effect" in cities, I still thought their position of EURO/GFS interesting ....."IT APPEARS VERY LIKELY THAT A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AS A DEEP AND INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILTED UPPER TROF ENTERS APPROACHES THE EAST COAST. THE PART THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH IS IF/WHEN/WHERE A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP. STILL FEEL THAT FROM A CLIMATOLOGICAL STANDPOINT...A COASTAL DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WHILE NOT TOO MUCH IS READ IN THE SPECIFICS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS MUCH MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE EUROPEAN/GGEM...AND IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH OUR GOING FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 8, 2010 Share Posted December 8, 2010 Based on what, it actually has a better score than the GFS at H5 in the NH over the past 30 days... Hey I get the big #fail as far as meteorology goes but you can't compare the last 30 days to a complex winter storm. Or maybe I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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