Quakertown needs snow Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Look at the bright side.... Could be Texas yeah that is terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I have been watching the hydro grids all day and each update has gone up some.. If you read the discussions, they talk about even raising the crests more depending on exact track and rainfall amts (of course).. does look to be a widespread very serious flooding situation developing. I wonder how high Wilkes Barre will get to. 24hr total since 1600 on 9/5/11 = 2.00" 6" even from Sunday night until this hour. Susquehanna at HBG now upped to 20.5 on Friday even (17'FS) That's up 2" since this mornings forecast. http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=ctp&gage=harp1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I have been watching the hydro grids all day and each update has gone up some.. If you read the discussions, they talk about even raising the crests more depending on exact track and rainfall amts (of course).. does look to be a widespread very serious flooding situation developing. I wonder how high Wilkes Barre will get to. It's been a while since I saw a 2" increase in that short of time span. And looking at the graphs - the trend is continuing upward even at their last prog. 21' isolates my road from everywhere. 23' and my work shuts down )we're right along the river in N Hbg. Beyond that, we're in historical catagories. (nothing yet - looking like any Agnes redux) but both stems taking on this much ain't gonna end pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Uncle already. I love rain for my landscaping but this is getting ridiculous. Although somebody in the MA thread was throwing out correlation potential b/w rainy Aug/Sept periods and good AN winters. Look at that firehouse down the Delmarva making a beeline for ILG, PHL, and probably SJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 WOW - State College update at 3:57 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...MESO ANAL SHOWS THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LEE OVER EASTERN TN...WITH A WARM FRONT FROM SRN VA THRU THE CHESAPEAKE BAY TO JUST SOUTH OF ACY. SATELLITE SHOWS A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALL THE WAY INTO THE NERN US. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION SURGING NORTHWARD RIGHT INTO THE FCST AREA. LOCALLY THE RAIN IS STRATIFORM IN NATURE...HOWEVER INSTABILITY ISN`T THAT FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT FROM CENTRAL VA SOUTHWARD. WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE SET UP OF AN ALMOST CLASSIC TROPICAL SYSTEM-FRONTAL BAND INTERACTION HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO AS THE MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF LEE MOVE NORTH INTO A VERY STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION THAT HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROF THAT MOVED INTO THE GR LAKES. SITUATION IS RIGHT OUT OF JUNKER`S HEAVY RAIN MANUAL AND IS PRIMED TO YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.[/size] AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE AT THIS RANGE...EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS END UP FALLING IS STILL NOT KNOWN. SREF ENSEMBLE FOR 48 HR AMOUNTS OF 4 OR MORE INCHES STILL CENTERS OVER CENTRAL PA. GEFS TARGETS MORE OF MY NWRN ZONES. NEW NAM PAINTS THE BULLS- EYE PRETTY MUCH RIGHT OVERHEAD STATE COLLEGE. 12Z NAM REALLY INTENSIFIES THE DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING LATER TODAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING THE IDEA THAT THE RAIN REALLY BEGINS TO RAMP UP IN INTENSITY THE DEEPER INTO TODAY AND TONIGHT WE GET. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT HISTORICALLY OUR MOST SIGNIFICANT HVY RAIN EVENTS COME BY WAY OF TC/FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. NEW HPC DAY 1-2 GUIDANCE PAINTS A NEARLY 11 INCH BULLS-EYE OVER CENTRAL PA! FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM STUCK VERY CLOSE TO THEIR NUMBERS WHICH GIVES MUCH OF THE AREA 2-6 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. COMBO OF NNELY SFC WNDS...OVC SKIES AND PERSISTENT RNFL WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT MINS FROM DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DIURNAL RANGES BASICALLY 5 DEGREES OR LESS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... ELEVATED INSTABILITY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SSE FLOW ALL POINTING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE AS THE SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM MAINTAINS ITS CONTROL OVER THE REGION. THE POTENTIAL ALREADY EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING. IF WE SEE MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED SMALL AREAS WITH AMOUNTS OVER 10 INCHES...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT AN HISTORIC EVENT. AS FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS .http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Another .80" today to bring the event total to an even 3.00" as of 4:30PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Living in the Harrisburg area for the last 12 years and that CTP AFD might be the strongest worded one I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Living in the Harrisburg area for the last 12 years and that CTP AFD might be the strongest worded one I can remember. Yes they are usually close to the vest. The fact they mention Wes's work and historic in the same update..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Is that total on rainfall at MQS right (3.88 since yesterday)? Looks like the highest among the Philly area "official" sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Uncle already. I love rain for my landscaping but this is getting ridiculous. Although somebody in the MA thread was throwing out correlation potential b/w rainy Aug/Sept periods and good AN winters. Look at that firehouse down the Delmarva making a beeline for ILG, PHL, and probably SJ. fwiw, we are still in a drought watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Martins Creek, PA totals: 1.00" since 7AM today; 3.87 storm total West Ward of Easton, PA totals: 1.20" since midnight; 4.06 storm total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Is that total on rainfall at MQS right (3.88 since yesterday)? Looks like the highest among the Philly area "official" sites. MQS rainfall observation sometimes looks like there is a reset problem or double or triple registering. Don't know if this is the case today, but would see if Paul's amount corroborates it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 MQS rainfall observation sometimes looks like there is a reset problem or double or triple registering. Don't know if this is the case today, but would see if Paul's amount corroborates it. It looks like it's legit per wunderground (no 2x or 3x counting or reset issues that I can see). Reading is around 3 and Pottstown is now over 2. It wouldn't surprise me if they're close to 4 but I know how many issues that ob has had various things so I was a bit suspect at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Dang - E shore of MD - that line is looking mean. (sorry OT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 2.44" total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 I'm in piscataway in cnj and have 2.1" total. A little more than I thought so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Up to 1.01" for the day, which is also the storm total so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Moderate rain is building back into the Poconos up here. Total Since Sunday at midnight is 2.80, looks like i'm going to be going well over the 3" mark by this evening. Very chilly day as well, sitting at 57 right now. I love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 And AHPS ups the ante at Hbg to 22.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 And AHPS ups the ante at Hbg to 22.4" What is the basis for that forecast? Basin wide 3"? 4"? 6"? Trying to understand what will happen if I see more/less developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Home from work up to 3.02" total 1.27" since midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 What is the basis for that forecast? Basin wide 3"? 4"? 6"? Trying to understand what will happen if I see more/less developing. Not certain what their basis was here's the link http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=ctp&gage=harp1&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1" Probably anything over 6" on both stems - which is quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Heaviest rain of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 3.75" since 12: AM Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 3.03" total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Storm total 4.36" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 3.1" of rain so far with 1.29" falling today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 It looks like it's legit per wunderground (no 2x or 3x counting or reset issues that I can see). Reading is around 3 and Pottstown is now over 2. It wouldn't surprise me if they're close to 4 but I know how many issues that ob has had various things so I was a bit suspect at first. It almost looks like a 50% underestimation in the STP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 MUCAPE/LPL bullseye MBY at ~3000 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 0.92 since 7AM - 3.18 total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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