MGorse Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Looking at their FFA product it had a product expiration time of 00z this evening, therefore probably why it dropped off the web page. Not sure why many of their products were not issued/refreshed on the day shift. Well, just looked at CTP's FFA product more closely and actually the flash flood watch was only until 00z this evening (just looked at the product expiration time initially). I figured it would have been in effect longer than that given more rain to come and neighboring offices FFA's run longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 two areas of rain to our sw that are going to swing in overnight and tomorrow morning that could produce some hvy rain for the region and into jersey if they hold together. Pwats continue to increase over the area with phl to about abe to rdg to lns breaking the 2 inch mark. Moisture convergence aligning itself within the high pwats along and just west of i 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kborne Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Freemansburg and Bethlehem closing roads due to flooding....and this is only the start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Well, just looked at CTP's FFA product more closely and actually the flash flood watch was only until 00z this evening (just looked at the product expiration time initially). I figured it would have been in effect longer than that given more rain to come and neighboring offices FFA's run longer. just posted: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 two areas of rain to our sw that are going to swing in overnight and tomorrow morning that could produce some hvy rain for the region and into jersey if they hold together. Pwats continue to increase over the area with phl to about abe to rdg to lns breaking the 2 inch mark. Moisture convergence aligning itself within the high pwats along and just west of i 95 It seems all indications are tonight through tomorrow morning much of easter PA and nothern and western NJ will get a good soaking. Most of these areas have seen anywheres from 0.5-2.5" since early this morning (of course some areas in western portions of this area saw 2-4" last night). Looks like another inch or two for these areas through early tomorrow. Then lets see what happens tomorrow evening through Wednesday. Most indications focus the heaviest axis west but still cover most of us with another 1-3". Wet week regardless just a matter of whether it is excessively wet or just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 pretty clear to see the cold front creeping east on lwx radar...that could be troublesome also as that creeps east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Front has pushed through alot of Eastern Pa already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 current 3hr and 6hr ffg 3hr 6hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 through 9hrs, 0z NAM brings in .5"+ just east of the del river and extreme SE PA...thats just through 9hrs , but based on 6hr totals. Would post images, but i', still having issues with uploading gifs from my desktop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 GFS has been a little better (but not by much) with QPF. 6 hour NAM is in lala-land already.. (0z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 GFS has been a little better (but not by much) with QPF. 6 hour NAM is in lala-land already.. (0z) i dont think its in lala land, i just think its placement is wrong. The first 3 hrs or so of the nam has already occured. Now take the cooridor from nw nj through abe to northern montco and bucks and nw chesco and you have that. Those places have easily gotten over half inch already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 With this type of settup, i'm not too concerned with the placement of the qpf from nam and gfs. They have both been all over the place the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 GFS has been a little better (but not by much) with QPF. 6 hour NAM is in lala-land already.. (0z) if you look on twister data, the 3hr increments show a nice little vorticity on the H5 vertical velocity map that comes through NJ. Looking at current radar, wondering if its the batch of heavier returns by fredericksburg in VA? PWATS are pretty high, so it seems pausible. BUt then again, the NAM can suffer convective feedback. But counterpoint, the vortmax doesn't have that feedback look on Twisterdata maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 if you look on twister data, the 3hr increments show a nice little vorticity on the H5 vertical velocity map that comes through NJ. Looking at current radar, wondering if its the batch of heavier returns by fredericksburg in VA? PWATS are pretty high, so it seems pausible. BUt then again, the NAM can suffer convective feedback. But counterpoint, the vortmax doesn't have that feedback look on Twisterdata maps. the first 3 hrs have already occured. Models get init at like 6-7 in the evening. So when it comes out you have to discount the first 3 or so hours, it may be 6, but im not sure on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Looks like the precip is really starting to bloosom over Sepa, Nepa, and NW NJ based on the above radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 the first 3 hrs have already occured. Models get init at like 6-7 in the evening. So when it comes out you have to discount the first 3 or so hours, it may be 6, but im not sure on that. i think 6hrs is when that little guy comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Front just crossed here in NW Chester County Wind shifted to WNW and gusted to 13mph...temp has fallen 3.0 degrees in last 15 minutes with Heavy Rain Rain last 20 minutes 0.15" Rain today 0.88" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 the first 3 hrs have already occured. Models get init at like 6-7 in the evening. So when it comes out you have to discount the first 3 or so hours, it may be 6, but im not sure on that. I think everything after 5/2315 is fair game for the 6/00 suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 2.56" in the can and, judging by the echoes in Berks Co., looks like I might get close to 3" for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 As of 10:15PM 1.54" Total 0.53" last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Very respectfully disagree (for my last post tonight) the more rapidly the recurve happens, the LESS Katia takes away from the moisture transport via the GOM tap. Lee rem's take the whole show (or a larger part of it) and continue to tap that flow unfettered. A slower recurve would allow Katia to throw into the mix moreso along the coastal regions - by tapping that GOM flow to some extent (as shown by the 700 mb charts on the model runs that skirt the OBX area or just east). If that happens, then the coast and 100 inland would be the bullseye But I'm not trying to start anything by saying so - regardless, I hope you all are safe and relatively unaffected. I think you misunderstood me, I was implying that with a track of Katia further offshore, NJ and eastern PA would most likely cash in on more than what is forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Heavy Rain in NW Chester County Temp down to 64.8 Rain today 1.02" 0.28" last 35 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Not looking good here in NW NJ up to 1.97" already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Not looking good here in NW NJ up to 1.97" already. Looks like there's a healthy SW-NE train setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 newest hrrr accum precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 newest pwats, greatest shifting east as cold front comes east with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 1.30" so far today. Raining lightly. Had a very heavy shower around 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Pouring rain right now. Rainfall total so far 1.52". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Moderate rain just starting in eastern delco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.