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Heavy rain 5 - 9 September OBS

NortheastPAWx

By NortheastPAWx,
in Philadelphia Region

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Grothar

Grothar

Posted
Posted

I have received 4.54" of rainfall here.. no QPF map had me over 4"(according to the map you posted) for the entire event.

I am hoping that the flood water does not crest the walls in Wilkes Barre and Harrisburg. I know it will be close for everyone. Thanks for believing me

You really think that this will be as bad as Agnes? Or was it more sensationalizing the situation?

I say this because NWS in BGM, CTP, and PHL don't really talk about the type of catastrophic flooding you are talking about.

snapback.pngGrothar, on 03 September 2011 - 10:48 AM, said:

This map is more realistic. Again, can you say Agnes Redux? Parsley I was hoping to be wrong this time but this map is not good news for us. I hope PEMA is watching this storm carefully and I would be considering a state of emergency if I was the Governor early next week. Wilkes Barre and Harrisburg may experience severe damage from flooding along with the smaller boroughs along the Susquehanna. The poor Chesapeake Bay will get another shot of fresh water intrusion and the fishing industry will take another hit. For us, SOS as before. The Perky, Schuylkill, Neshaminy, Delaware, Passaic, and Raritan and all their tribs will be flooding again. Just plain nasty. Federal Disaster should be declared if this indeed comes to light

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r-ville

r-ville

Posted
Posted

Back here in the Mtns just N of the Cap Region, I recorded another 2.5" between 16:00 9/6 and 04:00 9/7. It mostly came from heavier bands last evenings around the 7-12 hours.

Sun p.m. - Mon a.m. (16/4) = 4"

Mon a.m. - Tues a.m. = 2"

Tues p.m. - Wed a.m. = 2.5"

Total all since 16:00 9/4/11 = 8.5"*

I do not expect more than 1-2" from the remainder of the event unless/until training from T storms (as Tombo alluded to earlier) sets up shop. SREF plumes look meager for this section of the Commonwealth and points east. Most of the heavy action wants to fall in the more mountainous regions to the north and n/w.

RUC paints a stripe of moderate precip later today (after 13:00) but that lifts straight north after affecting the C PA region - not too much sliding to the right on the maps. Right up the ol chimney.

Also I see the AHPS has leveled off their forecast estimates, that as of last night were still ascending with each update - 22.4" as high as it gets.

The 700 mb charts show a distinct disconnect in the tropical tap root, it's still as deep - but it's breaking up around NC/VA border and around the N Florida area. This is quiet obvious in the WVpr imagery as well.

I'm not certain that additional lift from terrain is going to help the situation (as it applies to heavier rain) There is some Frontogenesis bisecting VA sw-ne that could help any streams heading north - northeast from there.

Should be an interesting day - especially for those under any heavier bands of TStorms.

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r-ville

r-ville

Posted
Posted
ZFPCTP

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

438 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

PAZ057-072045-

DAUPHIN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY

438 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

.TODAY...SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS

MORNING...THEN RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...

THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE

EVENING. HUMID. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST

WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HUMID WITH HIGHS

IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR

100 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND

VARIABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST

WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/forecasts/zone/pa/paz057.txt

pretty much what I said

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r-ville

r-ville

Posted
Posted

Back here in the Mtns just N of the Cap Region, I recorded another 2.5" between 16:00 9/6 and 04:00 9/7. It mostly came from heavier bands last evenings around the 7-12 hours.

Sun p.m. - Mon a.m. (16/4) = 4"

Mon a.m. - Tues a.m. = 2"

Tues p.m. - Wed a.m. = 2.5"

Total all since 16:00 9/4/11 = 8.5"*

I do not expect more than 1-2" from the remainder of the event unless/until training from T storms (as Tombo alluded to earlier) sets up shop. SREF plumes look meager for this section of the Commonwealth and points east. Most of the heavy action wants to fall in the more mountainous regions to the north and n/w.

RUC paints a stripe of moderate precip later today (after 13:00) but that lifts straight north after affecting the C PA region - not too much sliding to the right on the maps. Right up the ol chimney.

Also I see the AHPS has leveled off their forecast estimates, that as of last night were still ascending with each update - 22.4" as high as it gets.

The 700 mb charts show a distinct disconnect in the tropical tap root, it's still as deep - but it's breaking up around NC/VA border and around the N Florida area. This is quiet obvious in the WVpr imagery as well.

I'm not certain that additional lift from terrain is going to help the situation (as it applies to heavier rain) There is some Frontogenesis bisecting VA sw-ne that could help any streams heading north - northeast from there.

Should be an interesting day - especially for those under any heavier bands of TStorms.

And with that the skys opened up over my house as a small band popped a heavy cell - I just might be under some of that banding throughout the day.

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r-ville

r-ville

Posted
Posted

Slight risk of severe out today as well (wind/tornado): http://www.spc.noaa....k/day1otlk.html

We are technically in Lee's right front side hence the twister threat since most twisters in tropical systems (and/or their remnants) are in the right front side of the storm.

I was worried about that yesterday but I'm not sure today looks as ominous. There's a good deal of helicity to our south and the most unstable CAPe/CIN is just below. So you very well may be correct. I'm keeping that threat low in my forecast though.

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phlwx

phlwx

Posted
Posted

I was worried about that yesterday but I'm not sure today looks as ominous. There's a good deal of helicity to our south and the most unstable CAPe/CIN is just below. So you very well may be correct. I'm keeping that threat low in my forecast though.

Whoever gets into the warm sector probably gets the "best" shot at spin-up twisters/strong winds in the squall showers. I'm not sure it's Central PA as much as it is more towards Wilmington, Philly, Dover, Baltimore, and DC. The line down in Virginia now could start stuff up around midday in this part of the world.

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SmokeEater

SmokeEater

Posted
Posted

I am hoping that the flood water does not crest the walls in Wilkes Barre and Harrisburg. I know it will be close for everyone. Thanks for believing me

You really think that this will be as bad as Agnes? Or was it more sensationalizing the situation?

I say this because NWS in BGM, CTP, and PHL don't really talk about the type of catastrophic flooding you are talking about.

snapback.pngGrothar, on 03 September 2011 - 10:48 AM, said:

This map is more realistic. Again, can you say Agnes Redux? Parsley I was hoping to be wrong this time but this map is not good news for us. I hope PEMA is watching this storm carefully and I would be considering a state of emergency if I was the Governor early next week. Wilkes Barre and Harrisburg may experience severe damage from flooding along with the smaller boroughs along the Susquehanna. The poor Chesapeake Bay will get another shot of fresh water intrusion and the fishing industry will take another hit. For us, SOS as before. The Perky, Schuylkill, Neshaminy, Delaware, Passaic, and Raritan and all their tribs will be flooding again. Just plain nasty. Federal Disaster should be declared if this indeed comes to light

The Susquehanna at Wilkes Barre is forcasted to get nowhere near the level of Agnes. 26.5 is miles below the 41 foot crest that Agnes brought. Not even forecasted to get above flood stage. Also the Susquehanna at Harrisburg at this point, is forecasted to crest at 22 feet, nowhere near the level of what Agnes caused. Your talk of water cresting the walls, like those cities are going to be inundated, is ridiculous. A lot of rain, but this event is nothing like Agnes.

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SmokeEater

SmokeEater

Posted
Posted

SPC's discussion for today, 5% tornado/15% wind probs.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1258 AM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC

STATES/DELMARVA VICINITY...

...SYNOPSIS...

INCREASINGLY BLOCKY LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE

PERIOD...AS AN EASTERN STATES CYCLONE /REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER

HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES/ PIVOTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TN/OH

VALLEYS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE

RELEGATED TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA VICINITY...WITH TSTMS

ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS FL /ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STALLED FRONT/ AND

PORTIONS OF THE WEST INCLUDING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA MAINLY THIS

AFTERNOON.

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA...

THE EASTERN CONUS CYCLONE/LEE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE

BAROCLINIC/EXHIBIT CONSIDERABLY MORE MID-LATITUDE CHARACTERISTICS AS

THE CLOSED/SEMI-STACKED CYCLONE SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE

TN/OH RIVER VALLEYS. IN A SYSTEM-RELATIVE SENSE...OVERALL CONDITIONS

ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREND LESS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES

TODAY. NONETHELESS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST TODAY FOR A TORNADO OR

TWO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND PERHAPS

SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PA/NJ.

WITH THE REGION ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF DEEP/CYCLONIC SOUTHERLY LOW

TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...A MOIST/HIGH PW AIRMASS AS GENERALLY

CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ACCOMPANY A

NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE AIRMASS

EXPECTED TO DIURNALLY DESTABILIZE TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND

ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...A RELATIVELY

FAVORABLE NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OF DEEP LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND

NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR WIND

DAMAGE POTENTIAL.

MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...THE PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT WILL

LIKELY BE QUASI-FOCUSED NEAR THE NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT AND

THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT WARM SECTOR. THIS IS WHERE LOW LEVEL SRH

WILL LIKELY BE MAXIMIZED...AND INCLUDES THE EASTERN HALVES OF VA/MD

AND CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY INTO SOUTHERN PA AND PERHAPS DE/SOUTHERN

NJ. WIND DAMAGE WILL OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...AS

MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATELY STRONG AND

SEMI-UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES /ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE WARM

FRONT/ WILL YIELD BANDS OF NORTHWARD-MOVING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS

WITH POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE BOWS/WIND DAMAGE.

..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 09/07/2011

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ptb127

ptb127

Posted
Posted

Total rainfall so far - 5.21"

That looks a bit different then the actual forecasts but you'd have to click into the locations and see what is being forecasted.. Susquehanna at Wilkes Barre is already a decent amount higher then it was forecasted to be at this time.

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm

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