weatherwiz Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 While we are still dealing with the aftermath from Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene focus should quickly shift to the near term and what exists down the road. Luckily since Irene we have had some incredible weather which is making it easier for construction crews and people in the cleanup department. This quiet weather is also giving rivers some time to level off as well. However, as we move through the next couple of days a cold front and trough will slowly work eastward, reaching our region by Sunday. A strong trough will be entering the United States from Canada over the coming days and will be responsible for severe weather threats from the Dakotas all the way to the Northeast. Associated with the trough will be fairly strong mid and upper level wind fields. The GFS has a 40-60 knot MLJ streak work towards the region with 30-35 knots working overhead during the day. The GFS also has a strengthening ULJ of 80-100 knots increasing to 100-125 knots working towards the region placing us in the right exist region of the jet, or at least much of northern New England. One issue at hand right now is the timing, it appears the front may not come to our area until very late Sunday or perhaps early AM Monday which would certainly negate any threat for severe wx. Out ahead of the front it should be unseasonable warm and humid with temperatures into the lower to perhaps mid 80's away from the coast and dewpoints around 70F. This combined with fairly steep mid-level lapse rates, on order of 6.5 C/KM would yield to a potentially moderate unstable airmass with SBCape values nearing 2000 J/KG and LI values in the -3C to -5C range. PWAT values are also looking fairly high, between 1.50''-2.00'' so the threat for heavy rainfall would certainly be possible. Anyways besides the threat for heavier rainfall given the high PWATS given increasing shear aloft strong winds would also be possible. More details will be known as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 D4 risk just off to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 In this boring weather pattern post-Irene, hopefully we can fire up some more damage in the next few weeks before fall settles in for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 BUMP!! Not sure why discussion is lacking here. Big svr threat today, and possibly a tornado or two in northern New England. Very high CAPE for September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 4, 2011 Author Share Posted September 4, 2011 BUMP!! Not sure why discussion is lacking here. Big svr threat today, and possibly a tornado or two in northern New England. Very high CAPE for September Everyone is too into the fantasy range The potential for a very potent severe wx event exists today across northern New England with a good combination of cape/shear and we could be looking at very serious flooding issues across parts of the region this week if we get lots of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Everyone is too into the fantasy range The potential for a very potent severe wx event exists today across northern New England with a good combination of cape/shear and we could be looking at very serious flooding issues across parts of the region this week if we get lots of rain. Potential? Those things look tornadic already.What do you think for here Wiz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Lack of discussion is probably because most people won't be affected. It looks like mostly a VT/N NH deal today. Maybe something sneaks into W SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Yea, I thought this thread would be a hive of activity with severe potential through the ski resorts of the Green Mountains.....perplexing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Potential? Those things look tornadic already.What do you think for here Wiz? spc shows the threat falling off quite a bit as you get south and east.. looks like we'll be lucky to get much you guys think snh has a decent chance of getting in on the action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Watches have been hoisted here, Pretty good line moving thru NE NH into Western Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Mildly infuriating arrangement of watches leaving me out in the cold, watching from the sidelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 not much severe anywhere today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Supercell SE of Binghamton NY showing signs of rotation near I-81 on the PA border. Another strong storm near Oneonta as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 not much severe anywhere today Supercell SE of Binghamton NY showing signs of rotation near I-81 on the PA border. Another strong storm near Oneonta as well. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Yup, not much severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Yup, not much severe Geezus, man not good for VT, finally catching up on Irene damage in VT, holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Yup, not much severe That's very impressive. The TOR is out on the beast N of Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 That's very impressive. The TOR is out on the beast N of Albany. Thing totally fell apart after a few impressive volume scans. Almost looked like a super tight bookend vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Go to the main Upstate NY thread and someone posted a youtube of a tornado near Exit 27 of the Thruway apparently..... Thing totally fell apart after a few impressive volume scans. Almost looked like a super tight bookend vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 decent storm near EEN. lol Was interesting to see those storms blossom on radar just to the east of CON and MHT in the last half hour or so. Have had nearly continuous lightning for the last 20 minutes or so. Very bright lightning tonight, and quick, it doesn't seem to be traveling far or something. Not sure exactly what it is but something different than the usual nocturnal storms I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 decent storm near EEN. lol Friend of mine's house got struck by lightning. Tons of lightning in Plymouth, but the storm passed to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 000 NOUS41 KALY 050103 PNSALY NYZ047>053-051315- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 903 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 ...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO CONDUCT STORM SURVEY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY WILL CONDUCT A STORM SURVEY TOMORROW TO INVESTIGATE PATH AND INTENSITY OF A POSSIBLE TORNADO IN MONTGOMERY AND SCHENECTADY COUNTIES. THERE IS VIDEO EVIDENCE OF A TORNADO IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONDUCT THE SURVEY TOMORROW TO VERIFY THE TORNADO...DAMAGE...PATH...AND INTENSITY. $$ OKEEFE Friend of mine's house got struck by lightning. Tons of lightning in Plymouth, but the storm passed to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Took a while, you should have captioned it, but wow nice tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Took a while, you should have captioned it, but wow nice tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 Weird... MHT misses all of the storms again... this place blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 5, 2011 Share Posted September 5, 2011 wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted September 6, 2011 Author Share Posted September 6, 2011 not much severe anywhere today Yeah not much severe. It must suck to be you, spend all this time on met stuff and you still suck and have no clue what you're talking about. What a waste of money on school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Yeah not much severe. It must suck to be you, spend all this time on met stuff and you still suck and have no clue what you're talking about. What a waste of money on school. I will LOL at this exchange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted September 6, 2011 Share Posted September 6, 2011 Yeah not much severe. It must suck to be you, spend all this time on met stuff and you still suck and have no clue what you're talking about. What a waste of money on school. someone didn't get their daily 40 today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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