12z model disc.

[Paweatherguy1]

Gfs initialized.

[Paweatherguy1]

So far really ugly for everyone.... Low cutting into oh and the lakes. Amazing there are shifts this big almost every run....

[usedtobe]

A really ugly run at least for the weekend storm. Looks warm for I95 all the way to Bos. Fir DC we've now had 3 fantasy long range model snowstorms that have vanished as verification time approached. This is still early but it would take a near miracle to get this a snowstorm for DC to NYC.

There are just too many models showing the same thing and the Atlantic is not a pretty as some might think.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

bitter morning here freezing line way down in fla

[Weatherman995]

A really ugly run at least for the weekend storm. Looks warm for I95 all the way to Bos. Fir DC we've now had 3 fantasy long range model snowstorms that have vanished as verification time approached. This is still early but it would take a near miracle to get this a snowstorm for DC to NYC.

There are just too many models showing the same thing and the Atlantic is not a pretty as some might think.

Looks Real Good for US in the Ohio Valley. I am in Indy. We look to get blasted if the GFS is right. But it is still a long ways off. I am still not getting my hopes to high. I would like to see the EURO & GEM come into better agreement with the GFS. We shall see!

[ayuud]

bitter morning here freezing line way down in fla

LES in high gear

[usedtobe]

bitter morning here freezing line way down in fla

Yeah, in terms of temps in Florida this is the third year in a row with multiple freezes. That map also suggests another round of Lake effect snows.

[Dr No]

It is a little more phased with the PV in Canada this run, hence yanking it back west quite a bit.

[PhineasC]

The GFS is hideous. Face facts, guys. This is the season of cold/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry. Classic Nina and a good winter to be in the mountains near an LES zone.

[Ian]

The GFS is hideous. Face facts, guys. This is the season of cold/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry. Classic Nina and a good winter to be in the mountains near an LES zone.

to the cabin!

[mdsnowlover]

The GFS is hideous. Face facts, guys. This is the season of cold/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry. Classic Nina and a good winter to be in the mountains near an LES zone.

heck gfs putting another fantasy storm later in the run.

[PhineasC]

to the cabin!

Pretty much.

[ennepe68]

Bummer, another tease.

[Dalfy]

12z gfs ensemble mean

[HM]

The problem with getting this thing east is that the block is in the process of coming up; and when it does, it starts east-based at first. There really is no stopping this thing from amplifying early, outside of its own internal dynamics.

This storm is ultimately the thing that jump starts the blocking westward. I'm hoping for a rare December squall, myself, with this storm.

[Dr No]

12Z Ensemble Members:

Out of the 12:

3/12 Good snow for Immediate DC and especially the western burbs.

Out of the remaining 9:

3/12 Good snow for the Potomac Highlands, I-81, etc on the as the low shunts east to the coast

The remaining 6 (op too): Too far west. One of those looks like the 0Z Euro.

[Dr No]

And I see the Euro holds... with the deep LP just east of Chicago.

[HM]

The GFS is hideous. Face facts, guys. This is the season of cold/dry, warm/wet, cold/dry. Classic Nina and a good winter to be in the mountains near an LES zone.

This...well stated

[SnowGoose69]

A really ugly run at least for the weekend storm. Looks warm for I95 all the way to Bos. Fir DC we've now had 3 fantasy long range model snowstorms that have vanished as verification time approached. This is still early but it would take a near miracle to get this a snowstorm for DC to NYC.

There are just too many models showing the same thing and the Atlantic is not a pretty as some might think.

Its more bad luck than anything, the NAO was relatively good before and after this event...the storm simply finds a way to develop in a blind spot period for the NAO when it goes east.

[HM]

Its more bad luck than anything, the NAO was relatively good before and after this event...the storm simply finds a way to develop in a blind spot period for the NAO when it goes east.

You make that sound coincidental, when in fact it is these larger players governing the flow that are allowing this s/w to amplify.

[SnowGoose69]

The whole deal is reminiscent of December 89 and December 2000...both of those months being brutally cold had a massive screw job mild storm around mid-month in the midst of the cold pattern....the 89 event was a horrific forecast bust for NYC, 2000 was about the same type event as this one around the 17th or 18th or so, NYC I think broke a record high during it....both years though the NE had a chance for a storm late in the month...it didn't work out in 89 as the system remained over the SE U.S....2000 it did happen although barely so...2000 also nearly ended snowless for most areas in the coastal plain of the NE.

[stormtracker]

In this time of desperate need, I bring you

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NOGAPS_12z/nogapsloop.html

[uncle W]

the best chance we have in this nina pattern is for a front to stall along the coast and a trailer low to ride up the front...

[lwg8tr0514]

the best chance we have in this nina pattern is for a front to stall along the coast and a trailer low to ride up the front...

Well the moderately strong Nina is weakening, Nov 30th readings of sub-sea Pacific show a warming. I wouldn't count on a warm and sloppy Winter here in the East or 200" of snowfall in the Rockies.

[mitchnick]

we (I95) need a pattern reset/reshuffling at this point or an extraordinarily fast evolution from what we're stuck in

nothing to suggest its going to happen anytime soon, however, based on today's runs

[buckeye]

In this time of desperate need, I bring you

http://www.meteo.psu...nogapsloop.html

does dt have a KMA-Nogaps rule?

[mdsnowlover]

In this time of desperate need, I bring you

http://www.meteo.psu...nogapsloop.html

now how did you find this/??

[buckeye]

The whole deal is reminiscent of December 89 and December 2000...both of those months being brutally cold had a massive screw job mild storm around mid-month in the midst of the cold pattern....the 89 event was a horrific forecast bust for NYC, 2000 was about the same type event as this one around the 17th or 18th or so, NYC I think broke a record high during it....both years though the NE had a chance for a storm late in the month...it didn't work out in 89 as the system remained over the SE U.S....2000 it did happen although barely so...2000 also nearly ended snowless for most areas in the coastal plain of the NE.

wow...i didn't realize NYC warmed up during that time. In fact i remember that storm well, the entire country engulfed in an arctic outbreak and i believe that was a cutoff low that meandered from the plains to the coast. We got like 4" of snow from something like .13" of liquid it was so dry.

[MACoastWx]

now how did you find this/??

Are you asking where it is or why he was looking at it?....

[usedtobe]

Its more bad luck than anything, the NAO was relatively good before and after this event...the storm simply finds a way to develop in a blind spot period for the NAO when it goes east.

Part of the problem is the Pacific, it want to have a rpna which tends to get lows coming east of the Rockies too far north for most of the mid atlantic to cash in. It and the lack of a southern stream has made it hard to get a true 50 50 low. BY the time the blocking moves back west, we again have no southern stream because of what's happening in the Pacific. It's a see saw. I don't think it is just bad luck. It a pattern where it' hard to get the ridging in the west far enough east and strong enough to get a real system to the NC coast with enough amplitude to bring it up the coast. That might very well change but the analogs based on the D+11 mean pattern have been consistently signaling that this pattern isn't that good for the south of 40N. For New England and Fella, I agree, it's just bad luck. Of course those are my opinions which may or may not be right.