A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This will be the worst storm since Bob....make no mistake about it...even if it goes a bit east. We'd need to see a huge catastrophic bust to the east to make this a lesser impact. Is that because of how huge the wind field is Will? BTW take a look at the track of the storm I linked in my last post and let me know if that's what you're thinking of with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Is that because of how huge the wind field is Will? BTW take a look at the track of the storm I linked in my last post and let me know if that's what you're thinking of with this storm. Because of track and wind field. I could be like Donna if it maintains solid cat 1 strength...but we still have to wait and see what it does over cooler waters. I think this storm will be a lot worse than the 1934 storm you linked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Because of track and wind field. I could be like Donna if it maintains solid cat 1 strength...but we still have to wait and see what it does over cooler waters. I think this storm will be a lot worse than the 1934 storm you linked. I think so too-- plus those Boston wind speeds in the 40s seem a bit suspect lol. I was thinking more along the lines of track as far as what your thinking was though, not the strength of the storm. The track actually seems quite similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Meh, in the main board thread, they're talking about a wobble back to the NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looks like not many changes to the track overnight. I still like W LI into about HVN. ..There';s not much room for much more eastward shift given the setup My guess is we';ll see winds at 120mph at the 5:00 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Game on for a big CT hit. Question is whether it's BDR or GON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Game on for a big CT hit. Question is whether it's BDR or GON. Yeah I think somewhere in there is where we see 2nd LF. Makes a big difference too. Either way major major damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 6z NAM looks essentially identical to the 0z NAM, just a tad slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yeah I think somewhere in there is where we see 2nd LF. Makes a big difference too. Either way major major damage A GON landfall would dramtically reduce damage for most of the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 A GON landfall would dramtically reduce damage for most of the state Still would be widespread tree damage even with gusts to 60 -70mph on the west side. Bob did quite a bit of tree damage was east of GON and weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro is relatively quick.... like a 3 or 4 pm landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro is relatively quick.... like a 3 or 4 pm landfall? Wasn't GFS earlier than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 6z NAM is east. MTP to PVD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Wasn't GFS earlier than that? Yes... like 9 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yes... like 9 a.m. Maxon just said weak cat 2 LF HVN to HFD or HVN to IJD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Maxon just said weak cat 2 LF HVN to HFD or HVN to IJD he said weak cat 2 or cat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 he said weak cat 2 or cat 1 Always emphasize the strongest and most damaging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 They dropped the winds down to 110 mph..so good call to those who said it wouldn't strengthen Hurricane watches up to NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Disco also says they think it will strengthen again today and with the pressure at 942..that drop in wind seems suspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Hurricane Watches are up for the whole south coast on NHC site...but not showing up on BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 GYX mentions Irene in passing LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... ONLY SIGNIFICANT EVENT WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH PASSAGE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM. IRENE WILL RIDE NORTHWARD THEN EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH. IN ITS WAKE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL BY MID WEEK WITH SEVERAL QUIET DAYS EXPECTED ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. Meanwhile, BOX has like 7 paragraphs on Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Euro is relatively quick.... like a 3 or 4 pm landfall? EC ens are slower. Just getting to LI at 00z Mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 EC ens are slower. Just getting to LI at 00z Mon. How do they match up with op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 EC ens are slower. Just getting to LI at 00z Mon. Yeah I saw that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 6z GFS is slower again after steaming north at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 6z GFS is slower again after steaming north at 00z Slower/further west - faster/further east..... seems to be the linkage there lol Knabb has a good reputation as a tropical forecaster doesn't he? He just said he doesn't think there's been any trend east with the models, that they are just wobbling back and forth a bit and will continue to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 6z GFS looks like exact track of 00z so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 6z GFS looks like exact track of 00z so far Furey om Fox has 75+ statewide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 How do they match up with op? The track looks fairly similar as it rides the coast from HSE...only diff is the timing. It starts going a bit east from the op around NYC. It's a bit more east on LI than the op. Instead of cutting through VT/N NH like the op the ens go over my head and into ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The track looks fairly similar as it rides the coast from HSE...only diff is the timing. It starts going a bit east from the op around NYC. It's a bit more east on LI than the op. Instead of cutting through VT/N NH like the op the ens go over my head and into ME. Ok..pretty good agreement of that w li landfall. Thanks dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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