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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

NWS going 30% on Sunday locally, would go higher except they expect subsidence from the stupid sub-tropical Eastern Gulf system to surpress activity.

I think there might be a subtle low level feature in the Gulf, trying to move closer to SETX.

rb-l.jpg

Nothing apparent on CIMMS 850 mb vorticity plot. I'd guess the remnant of the front.

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

NWS going 30% on Sunday locally, would go higher except they expect subsidence from the stupid sub-tropical Eastern Gulf system to surpress activity.

I think there might be a subtle low level feature in the Gulf, trying to move closer to SETX.

rb-l.jpg

Nothing apparent on CIMMS 850 mb vorticity plot. I'd guess the remnant of the front.

Moisture has ben streaming in from that area of disturbed weather. The AggieDome barely had to use its pinky to squash any action past Tomball.

A front sets up in W. Texas on Sun/Mon then fizzles.

18zgfs850mbTSLPp06084.gif

Wait. I thought I saw Jova remnants poke out its head on Tue...maybe some downpous in NMex and SoTex.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

Hard to describe the elation in Midland today. Just poured overnight. Wonderful. Only got a little over an inch here, but some areas to the east saw 2. Nice to see a significant rain event here to help keep alive what little trees we have (though since I am from KS originally....man I wouldn't mind the drought destroying the Mesquite bushes).

Hoping for round two tonight...it appears the front will move back west enough to give us another shot tonight hopefully. That's always our problem. Dang drylines etc. set up to the east.

Unfortunate it will not give Houston the much-needed rain they need.

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

Church fair, first year w/o a rain date announced, has provided this much needed drought denter.

There is a big tent there for dry eating, but wetness is ensured heading out for the food and game booths.

HGX_loop.gif

Good work Ed! It took a lot to overcome Gov. Perry's negative karma prayer for rain. We have a slow soaker this am with bands of heavier stuff.

wundmap119.jpg

gmapicon.png

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wxmx

wxmx

Posted
Posted

Mostly unexpected small storm has been drenching the city with training storms... almost 3" in 2 hours. 3 rain events have accumulated 90% of the total precipitation these last 12 months.

5" was the total precipitation, becoming the main rain event in the last 12 months... all 3 rain events were during a relative high amplitude phase 1 MJO wave.

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David Reimer

David Reimer

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't be surprised if a handful of areas in central TX are completely out of the drought when this Thursday's update is released (though I think yellow, or D0, is more likely)

For the short term, that is a possibility. I'm more interested to see what the rain did to help our lakes. If none of this water made it to the lakes, then we're just as bad off as before the rain event. In addition, now we have a ton of new vegetation going up. If we don't get any more rain, we're essentially going to be starting the fire season over with all this new vegetation Areas that burned before may burn again.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

For the short term, that is a possibility. I'm more interested to see what the rain did to help our lakes. If none of this water made it to the lakes, then we're just as bad off as before the rain event. In addition, now we have a ton of new vegetation going up. If we don't get any more rain, we're essentially going to be starting the fire season over with all this new vegetation Areas that burned before may burn again.

The dead trees will also still be dead, and they'll dry quickly.

Not really sure what is to be done with dead trees. They are all over around Houston. Maybe we need a nice straight line wind event to blow them all down.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted
...ARKLATEX INTO OZARKS/MID MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...

MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN TODAY FROM ERN KS AND MO SSW

THROUGH THE ARKLATEX AS DIFFLUENT/NEG TILT UPR TROUGH CONTINUES TO

SLOWLY AMPLIFY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL

REMAIN MODEST /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S F WITH PW AROUND

OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1 INCH/...AND CLOUDS WILL TEMPER SFC HEATING. BUT

GIVEN COOLING MID LVL TEMPS AND LOW LVL RETURN...DESTABILIZATION

SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT /POCKETS OF SBCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J PER KG/ TO

SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD TSTMS AND/OR INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING

ACTIVITY FROM FAR ERN KS/MO SSW INTO ERN OK...NE TX...AR...AND NRN

LA BY EARLY AFTN.

THE GREATEST SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST IN E TX...NEAR

EXIT REGION OF UPR JET WHERE BELT OF ENHANCED 500 MB FLOW WILL BOOST

NWLY DEEP SHEAR AOA 40 KTS. SHEAR WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY WEAK IN

MO...NEAR CORE OF TROUGH. THAT REGION...HOWEVER...WILL EXPERIENCE

STRONGER MID LVL COOLING... AND POSSIBLE GREATER SFC

HEATING...RELATIVE TO POINTS SOUTH.

OVERALL SETUP SUGGESTS ONE IN WHICH SCTD STRONG TO SVR STORMS MAY

OCCUR ON A SPORADIC BASIS THIS AFTN AND EVE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN

SLGT RISK AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL. OUTFLOW FROM

LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS NOW IN N CNTRL/NE TX MAY SERVE

TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE ARKLATEX REGION AND MAY SUPPORT EVENTUAL

DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF STORMS THAT MOVES SE TOWARD THE UPR

TX GULF CST. FARTHER NNE...POCKETS OF ENHANCED SFC HEATING BENEATH

STRONGER MID LVL COOLING IN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD FOSTER

MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

Just misses our Aggie friends as far as a SLIGHT RISK...

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW

FLV 30 SSW LWD 30 SW UIN 15 NNW STL 25 WSW BLV 30 SSE FAM 25 ENE ARG

20 NNW GLH 25 WSW JAN 35 SW HEZ 40 ESE LFK 10 NNW UTS 45 S CRS 15 N

CRS 35 N PRX 15 ENE MLC 25 ESE BVO 15 SW CNU 20 NW FLV.

post-138-0-06121400-1318433867.gif

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Allan's GFS model run is no better. I think someone took the subtropical jet out back and shot it.

Steve decided our discussions about scorpions was unacceptable in the Josh chase thread, but other people's were ok. In a thread where half the posts were variations of 'good luck'. Well, your post would have survived if I hadn't answered it. Steve is making it a point to show he shows no partiality to me whatsoever because I post on his KHOU forum. Or maybe it is because he posts at DBM.

Pretty much no rain per the GFS next two weeks, the new grass will dry out, and the trees that died before last weekend's rain will stay just as dead. Wednesday looks like the worst day for fires, just glancing at the handy GFS meteogram.

post-138-0-79356100-1318536080.png

post-138-0-09573500-1318536094.png

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Looks like the first ligit fall front is coming down Monday/Tuesday. HGX even hinting at some possible upper 30's N and NE of metro Houston. Sweet!

Cold sucks. I'll tolerate it for crippling Winter precip, but otherwise I want 75 degree days and 50 degree nights November to March.

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