Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

[Srain]

Part III. Can we break this heat and drought...

http://www.americanw...2/page__st__980

[Ed Lizard]

Maybe September.

I might declare Texas tropical season over on August 29th, wash my car, run my sprinkler, and plan a trip to the Popo/Momo Party Pad of Plenty in Galveston just to force a storm to hit us.

I don't know whether its the climatology component to MOS or an actual cooling trend, but daytime highs near 90ºF would be nice, even if the GFS is as dry as a bone.

[Srain]

[Ed Lizard]

Katrina did produce a peripheral rain band that passed over HOU shortly after landfall. I was checking the radar, it was part of the outer circulation.

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS is party time for a lot of Texas

[Ed Lizard]

18z GFS is party time for a lot of Texas

Bad for Popo's beach house good for the reservoirs and farmers. Fantasy solution would be perfect 150 miles farther down the coast.

[Amped]

Murphys Law says if you want rain all you need to do is go on a 10 day vacation and leave your car in the driveway with the windows open.

[Quixotic1]

Bad for Popo's beach house good for the reservoirs and farmers. Fantasy solution would be perfect 150 miles farther down the coast.

Bring it.

[Ed Lizard]

Bring it.

18Z GFS seems to be an outlier.

[Ed Lizard]

Not a bad sign for this early in the morning...

Juicy per LCH, and slow moving storms from the North would be a happy thing.

HGX discussion mentioned a disturbance in MO, I don't see it on the 6Z models, although there is a 700 mb RH max coming through.

[Quixotic1]

If only this were to verify.....

[DoctorMu]

Ed, 97L is one disorganized beast.  It's got serious angular momentum though.  I hold out the faintest glimmer of hope that it takes a more southern solution across the Caribbean, with potentially outer bands reaching HOU and CLL with landfall near Biloxi or NOLA.  More of a major rainmaker than major (high wind) hurricane.<br><br>31 days straight and 48 overall pf 100°F+...really becoming problematic with schools and University at full capacity next week and beyond.  The grid will be stressed to the limit.

[msp]

Ed, 97L is one disorganized beast.  It's got serious angular momentum though.  I hold out the faintest glimmer of hope that it takes a more southern solution across the Caribbean, with potentially outer bands reaching HOU and CLL with landfall near Biloxi or NOLA.  More of a major rainmaker than major (high wind) hurricane.<br><br>31 days straight and 48 overall pf 100°F+...really becoming problematic with schools and University at full capacity next week and beyond.  The grid will be stressed to the limit.

i'm praying we see a westward trend, but even the solutions into the GoM seem to be well east of here. damn trough.

and i just got down here today. not looking forward to moving in tomorrow in 105F heat.

[Ed Lizard]

Unless the outlier UK Met is scoring the huge win, Irene will not break the drought.

0Z Euro and GFS ensembles different at Day 10, GFS would have the ridge far enough away we'd have a decent shot of rain. Operational runs mean Day 8-10 heights, the Euro could open up Texas to tropical influences, and even without, both models would seem to suggest better chances for at least afternoon storms. And lower 500 mb heights would seem to imply lower thicknesses and cooler temps, even before clouds and rain figure in.

[DoctorMu]

Irene really shifted N overnight. It's badly misshapen as it is still entraining dry air into the southern part of the storm. Looks like an eastern solution and we're high and dr.

Herre, Aggie tradition correlates the Fall rains beginning the first day of classes. Aug 29 seems like a good day then for convection-triggered twrs or tropical stuff to commence as the death ridge begins to break down.

Heat index already at 98°F - worse than yesterday so far.

[msp]

Irene really shifted N overnight. It's badly misshapen as it is still entraining dry air into the southern part of the storm. Looks like an eastern solution and we're high and dr.

Herre, Aggie tradition correlates the Fall rains beginning the first day of classes. Aug 29 seems like a good day then for convection-triggered twrs or tropical stuff to commence as the death ridge begins to break down.

Heat index already at 98°F - worse than yesterday so far.

99F with a HI of 104F and climbing. brutal for those of us lugging refrigerators around. but hey, only 9 or 10 days until the most 100s on record.

[DoctorMu]

99F with a HI of 104F and climbing. brutal for those of us lugging refrigerators around. but hey, only 9 or 10 days until the most 100s on record.

Bam! 100°F. 32 straight of 100°F+ and 49 overall. I've gathered any 25 ft soaker hoses and keeping some relatively young red oaks alive - leaves are falling nonetheless, even after gypsum and fertilizer feeds.

[msp]

Bam! 100°F. 32 straight of 100°F+ and 49 overall. I've gathered any 25 ft soaker hoses and keeping some relatively young red oaks alive - leaves are falling nonetheless, even after gypsum and fertilizer feeds.

we were going to head over to houston national forest tomorrow. saw that there's a warning for falling trees and tree branches because of the drought. ouch.

looks like we actually managed 104 intrahour. it felt all of that and more.

[Ed Lizard]

It was close, but Houston keeps beating the 1980 record for consecutive days like a mule, and I think we just broke the 1980 record for total 100ºF days.

Still vague hints from various places the Carla Cradle might get interesting in September. Not super optimistic on anything in Texas this year, but nothing would seem to outright preclude some action.

[VAwxman]

Just when we thought it can't get hotter...

Some models are just staggering with numbers in Houston in the Friday to Monday time frame.

NAM and Euro both show 110 potential (NAM Friday, Euro this weekend), which of course has never happened at IAH. GFS would give a shot for 106-107 down here. Just crazy. And given the look of the pattern versus the record heat wave from Sep 2000, I can't argue against the idea that highs Friday into this weekend can be at least within a couple of the all time IAH high.

[msp]

Just when we thought it can't get hotter...

Some models are just staggering with numbers in Houston in the Friday to Monday time frame.

NAM and Euro both show 110 potential (NAM Friday, Euro this weekend), which of course has never happened at IAH. GFS would give a shot for 106-107 down here. Just crazy. And given the look of the pattern versus the record heat wave from Sep 2000, I can't argue against the idea that highs Friday into this weekend can be at least within a couple of the all time IAH high.

well, if you're going to be this hot, you might as well go for the record. hgx says 105 for CLL already for fri/sat.

[Portastorm]

We tied the all-time record today in Austin for 100-degree days in a year. Record is 69 days. Will set a new record tomorrow. Oh joy.

[My Weather Today]

Now ain't this some real poop...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

827 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

UNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT COULD GET WORSE. THE LAST

FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM CONTINUE TO

POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME TEMPERATURES OVER SE TX IN THE

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD AS AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO

SE TX AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTS IN A

SUPPRESSION OF THE SEABREEZE. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN SHOWS 850 MB

TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE 25-27C RANGE OVER HOUSTON THIS WEEKEND!

[Cypress]

totally agree - they may as well have cut out our hearts and stomped on them... if someone told me back in Feb when we had 2 wks of freezing weather, that we would have this many 100/+ days I would have laughed in their face. We're on day 49 here in Cypress of 100/+ since Jun 4th & 100/+ in the NWS forecast next 7 days - I am getting really bitchy...

Now ain't this some real poop...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

827 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2011

UNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAT COULD GET WORSE. THE LAST

FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM CONTINUE TO

POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME TEMPERATURES OVER SE TX IN THE

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD AS AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS INTO

SE TX AND NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS RESULTS IN A

SUPPRESSION OF THE SEABREEZE. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN SHOWS 850 MB

TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE 25-27C RANGE OVER HOUSTON THIS WEEKEND!

[Quixotic1]

One thing that surprised me is that IAH low temps were lower than DFW during this year's heat. I would have thought that with the typically higher humidities, that lows would be higher. Is it the seabreeze/landbreeze that causes this?

[msp]

for thurs-mon, hgx just went to 105, 107, 107, 105, 104 for CLL

all five would set new untied daily records.

highest temp ever for august here is 109. highest temp on record is 112 (actually set in september). the latter should be be safe, but we could come real close to the former if we luck out.

[Srain]

From ERCOT:

NewsRelease August 24 2011 Print Version

ERCOT in level 2 emergency; Consumers asked to conserve 3-7 p.m. today

Power Warning - Conservation Critical

Consumers asked to conserve electricity until 7 pm; Low risk of rotating outages

Austin, Aug.24, 2011 -- Consumers and businesses are asked to reduce their electricity use during peak electricity hours from 3 to 7 p.m. today to avert the need for rotating outages.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc. (ERCOT), system operator for the state’s bulk transmission grid, initiated Energy Emergency Alert Level 2 at 3:10 p.m. today due to responsive reserves below 1,750 megawatts (MW).

“Interruptible loads – large customers paid to be dropped in a level 2 emergency are being deployed,” said Kent Saathoff, vice president of system planning and operations. “At this time, we feel the risk of needing the last step of our emergency procedures – rotating outages – is low.”

“Capacity is expected to be very tight over the peak today – particularly between 4 and 5 p.m. We are asking consumers and businesses to reduce their electricity use as much as they are able during peak electricity hours from 3 to 7 p.m.,” Saathoff said.

Consumers can help by shutting off unnecessary lights and electrical appliances, minimizing the use of air conditioning and delaying laundry and other activities requiring electricity-consuming appliances until later in the evening.

Power Warnings are issued by the electric grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), when there is a high risk that rotating outages will be needed to reduce load.

The emergency procedures are a progressive series of steps that allow ERCOT to bring on uncommitted generation and power from other grids. If the situation does not improve, ERCOT will first drop load resources (a market-based demand response program) and other resources under contract to be interrupted during an emergency. Only as a last resort (Power Emergency) to avoid the risk of a complete blackout does ERCOT ask utilities to reduce demand by dropping load through rotating outages.

Rotating outages are controlled, temporary interruptions of electrical service initiated by each utility when supplies of reserve power are exhausted. Without this safety valve, generators would overload and begin shutting down to avoid damage, risking a domino effect of a region-wide outage.

The outages are typically limited to 15-45 minutes before being rotated to a different neighborhood. Some customers may experience longer outages if power surges cause equipment failure during the restoration process. Customers can minimize power surges by turning off appliances, lights and other equipment, except for one task light to determine when power has been restored.

Consumers should contact the utility company/ transmission provider listed on their electric bill for information about power outages at their homes or business, or about rotating outage procedures for their area.

[msp]

RAIN!!!!!

the campus has gone wild. everyone's out and running around. no one has seen this in so long.

now 108 for fri and sat. hgx expecting 104-109 inland.

also model hints of precip around the 3rd or 4th

[msp]

surprised CLL only picked up a tenth of an inch. it's just a mile or two away and we must have gotten more than that here on main campus. much more (an inch or two reportedly) as close as bryan.

but the rain this morning and last night should also help to keep temps lower this weekend.

[DoctorMu]

0.44 in officially now of rain in CLL. We might break that 35 straight 100°+ streak and 48 overall and just make it into the mid to upper 90s - There's cloud cover to another hour or two, and currently standing at 82 tropical degrees F

The payback with be a *** this weekend as indicated by NOAA and above 108°F Saturday and 106°F tomorrow.