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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 3

Srain

By Srain,
in Central/Western States

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msp

msp

Posted
Posted

0.44 in officially now of rain in CLL. We might break that 35 straight 100°+ streak and 48 overall and just make it into the mid to upper 90s - There's cloud cover to another hour or two, and currently standing at 82 tropical degrees F

The payback with be a *** this weekend as indicated by NOAA and above 108°F Saturday and 106°F tomorrow.

missed it by four. only 96F today. it was actually near pleasant outside much of the time.

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Hope? From FW NWS. They must be as bored as I am:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

553 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011/

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST...TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS WILL CONTINUE

THROUGH DAY SEVEN. WE STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY

AS A DISTURBANCE DROPS DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT ECMWF

PROGS THIS SHORT WAVE WEAKER THAN THE GFS SO POPS WILL REMAIN LOW

FOR NOW.

OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...BY DAY NINE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS

SPLIT THE RIDGE...WITH ONE HIGH CENTER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND

THE OTHER OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHEAST. IF THIS OCCURS...WE MAY

SEE MORE EXTENSIVE RAIN CHANCES THAN WE HAVE HAD FOR A LONG

TIME...AS WELL AS A BREAK FROM 100 DEGREE HIGHS. 84

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Quixotic1

Quixotic1

Posted
Posted

Of local interest: DFW is now at 59 days over 100 for the year. That is second all time to 1980's 69 days. DFW long set the record for most days with lows above 80 with 47. Second place on the list is 1998 with 39. As spectacular as the highs have been, the lows are even more astonishing.

Average Highs:

June: 97.6

July: 101.7

August: 104.2

Average Lows:

June: 75.9

July: 81.0

August: 82.5

Departures from Normal:

June: +5.9

July: +6.1

August: +7.5

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msp

msp

Posted
Posted

CLL reached 109°F yesterday and 108° today. The dewpoint sank today though below 50°F, though so it doesn't feel nearly as bad as yesterday. Relief in temps and showers beginning on Thursday

yeah, today's 109F was noticeably more comfortable than yesterday's

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

As much as it is cool to dominate 1980 records with 109º and 107ºF readings, since I'm seeing lots of dead trees now in forested areas, model promise of ridge shifting to Missouri and allowing higher PW air from the Gulf in and raining on and ruining Labor Day isn't all bad.

Oh, change of seasons thing, shallow ground fog this morning, a sign of longer nights.

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

Glass quarter full, probably don't get a real tropical depression out of this, but a nice slug or tropical moisture at least maybe getting lemonized and ruining Labor Day at the beach but saving distressed trees and lawns...

I'm glass quarter full.

We need a bushel full of lemonade - 2 of our 4 3 year old red oaks have given up their leaves. soaker hoses and gypsum have not quite been enough. There are buds underneath, so there is hope. At last week's sprinkling there was virtually no natural ground water left.

Besides, Aggies work on Labor Day. Bring it.

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msp

msp

Posted
Posted

We need a bushel full of lemonade - 2 of our 4 3 year old red oaks have given up their leaves. soaker hoses and gypsum have not quite been enough. There are buds underneath, so there is hope. At last week's sprinkling there was virtually no natural ground water left.

Besides, Aggies work on Labor Day. Bring it.

such a bummer too. i miss having that long weekend to end summer.

101F now at CLL... 2 behind yesterday's pace, so the forecast high of 107F seems pretty good

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Glass quarter full, probably don't get a real tropical depression out of this, but a nice slug or tropical moisture at least maybe getting lemonized and ruining Labor Day at the beach but saving distressed trees and lawns...

I'm glass quarter full.

6z Experimental GFS is feeling it at 168h :weight_lift:

sytitu.png

12z 168h (it appears to spin up b/w 108 and 114 and slowly drift N)

t9ulvm.png

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My Weather Today

My Weather Today

Posted
Posted

I don't want to see anything form in the Gulf. I just want all of the moisture to stream into Texas from the southeast. Too many things can wrong with a closed circulation under light steering currents. My cup is still 1/16th full until I actually start seeing appreciable rainfall accumulations in my own backyard. Until then, I will remain in a 'I'll believe it when I see it mode'.

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Srain

Srain

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Another record setting day yesterday with BUSH IAH reaching 107, but big changes appear on the horizon.

Potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Mexico late this week/this weekend with significant impacts possible on the TX coast.

Massive upper level ridge which has been over TX for months will finally be breaking down over the next 24-48 hours with a piece of the ridge moving westward into the SW US and the other piece moving eastward into the SE US leaving a weakness in the height field over TX. While this is ongoing the tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea will move WNW into the Gulf of Mexico on the east side of an upper level trough axis. Surge of deep tropical moisture was expected to arrive Wednesday, but based on the latest guidance appears that it will be delayed until Thursday now, but much of this depends on how much development takes place with the tropical wave in the next 48 hours. The current thinking is that the wave will remain fairly disorganized into Thursday so this should allow at least some moisture to spread NW toward the TX coast increasing rain chances on Thursday.

Friday-Early Next Week:

Nearly all guidance now develops a tropical cyclone off the TX coast this weekend, but the models are not consistent on where and which way the system may move. The ECMWF rapidly develops a surface low off the lower TX coast and then slowly meanders the system W toward S TX over the weekend with a large circulation impacting much of the coast. The GFS develops a surface low south of Louisiana and moves the system very slowly W and WSW over the weekend only moving from SE of Lake Charles to near Freeport in 3-4 days! The CMC and UKMET both do not show significant development, although the CMC did show development on it runs yesterday and sent a system toward S TX. NAM is probably the most aggressive in bringing a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane toward the upper TX coast this weekend, but this model shows fairly quick development in the next 24 hours which seems unlikely.

Given the consistency of the forecast models to develop a closed surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend, it appears at least possible that some sort of tropical system will form. Upper level steering pattern is one of weak steering with short waves passing far enough north of TX to leave any tropical system behind and high pressure far enough east and west to be a little help also. Whatever develops will be very slow moving and possibly remain stalled off the TX coast for several days. In fact the GFS keeps the system off the TX coast into next week. Just about any motion would be possible, with the most likely at this point being a rare WSW motion along the TX coast as the models seem to be keying in on the SW US ridge being strong enough to impart a weak ENE steering low, but that flow is very weak.

Potential Impacts:

What looked like a straight forward increasing rain forecast yesterday has now had this wrench thrown into it. Depending on where the surface low actually forms and where is moves (if at all) will determine what kind of rain chances need to the carried forward this weekend. Appears the widespread wet weather late this week may need to be held off until the weekend or later depending on how the tropical system evolves. Deeper moisture should arrive Thursday and that lone along with the seabreeze should produce at least 30-40% coverage on Thursday and Friday. After that the forecast will completely hinge on the tropical system developing over the Gulf.

The modeling of this system looks similar to Frances (1998) with a large slow moving circulation taking days to move inland. Will likely need to start ramping up seas and tides in the weekend period tomorrow if models continue to show development, especially if it appears that it will be south of our area which places the upper TX coast on the onshore flow “dirty” side of things. Other than that will take the wait and see approach until guidance can come into better agreement.

Residents along the TX coast should review their hurricane plans and monitor weather forecast leading into the holiday weekend.

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

Posted
Posted

Unfortunately, that system won't impact 95 percent of the state.

Every unirrigated tree in Houston will be dead soon. Eyeballing almost a quarter in Memorial Park have already eaten the salmon mousse.

Yesterday, joy of a modelled moisture surge, today, a crushing blow, I'm naturally optimistic, but I'm only 1/512th confident the drought ends before well into 2012.

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Roy

Roy

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Posted

I love the trees in Houston (since we don't have real trees in Midland). That's really distressing the trees are dying things are so bad. I do hope that system sits over Houston. You guys do need the rain just as bad as we do, and more of it since you have higher normal rainfall amounts to begin with.

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Srain

Srain

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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Will start out with the ongoing wildfire threat across the area as it appears to have reached a critical point again. Several large fires developed yesterday.

Addicks Fire: 150-450 acre fire burned through heavy brush and grass in Addicks Reservoir west of Eldridge Parkway to the top of the dam. Cy-Fair, Katy, and Houston fire departments responded along with 2 TFS dozers and a DPS helicopter. Fire was mostly brought under control very early this morning.

Beasley Fire: 50-75 acre fire developed along US 59 near Beasley. Rosenberg and Beasley fire departments responded and were able to bring the fire under control.

Huntsville: 175 acre fire burned north of Huntsville near the I-45 rest stop. Numerous fire departments responded along with TFS helicopters providing water drops. Fire was near 100% contained last evening.

Possum Kingdom Fire: Massive wildfire developed yesterday morning in Palo Pinto County west of Fort Worth spreading rapidly to 7,500 acres. 25-30 homes/condos were burned yesterday evening. 200 firefighters from numerous fire departments and 6 TFS dozer crews are working this fire. Numerous air support including C-130 air tankers and TFS helicopters are providing air support. Fire is burning out of control in heavy grass and cedar trees and jumped several fire lines yesterday. An additional 175 homes are threatened. This is the same location that had large fires in April which destroyed 125 homes.

Fire Weather: Little change today compared to the past few days which will result in another elevated fire weather day. Appears stronger winds on Tuesday help fan small fires rapidly into large out of control fires. Expect afternoon RH to fall between 15-35% across the area this afternoon with variable winds of 5-10 mph prior to the seabreeze moving inland, then SE to S winds at 10-15mph and gusty late this afternoon. After temperatures in the upper 90’s to low 100’s. Vegetation is extremely dry and will result in rapid fire growth.

Thursday:

Deep moisture now over the central Gulf of Mexico will begin to move inland along the TX coast with increasing chances of rainfall. Should start to see scattered showers/thunderstorms offshore Thursday morning spreading inland with the seabreeze. Best rain chances will be along and south of I-10.

Weekend:

Now for the fun part! Uncertainty abounds with this system still this morning!

All models still develop some kind of tropical system in the NW/W/N Gulf this weekend and linger it around for a few to several days. Still do not think any one of the models has a better solution than the other. CMC dump the system altogether yesterday and now brings a hurricane to the upper TX coast. ECMWF develops a low off of KBRO and drifts it ENE and then SW and then around the middle of next week sends it back NW as a hurricane into the upper TX/SW LA coast. GFS develops a system off of S LA and moves it eastward toward NW FL. NAM continues to be aggressive in the short term and brings a strong TS toward Galveston Bay and then moves it slightly inland only to send it back offshore. Will not follow any of the guidance solutions, even though the ECMWF and NAM do have support from the GFS ensembles.

Will instead go with the general idea of a broad surface low forming somewhere in the central or NW Gulf late Friday and moving very slowly NW toward the middle/upper TX coast. System will likely slow/stall/meander near or offshore through much of the weekend before either moving WSW toward the lower/middle coast or turning NE toward the upper coast/SW LA. Would give slightly more credit to the WSW motion, but it may not be enough to get it inland as suggested by the 00Z ECMWF in which the system is left over the Gulf into the middle of next week getting stronger and stronger. System looks very large (broad) over the weekend and will likely be fairly disorganized at first. Point must continue to be made that the forecast is of little confidence and just about anything is possible, ,this is going to be a slow moving system that will have a prolonged impact for some areas. It is not going anywhere fast!

Impacts:

Will keep impacts general as there is so much uncertainty with the formation, track, and intensity that these aspects will certainly change over the next few days.

Will go with increasing rain chances Thursday-Monday if nothing else just for the increase in moisture. Should a surface low develop south or SW of the upper TX coast onshore flow on the east and north sides of the system would bring frequent squalls and rain bands, while a system developing S of LA would draw dry air southward cutting off rain chances. I am leaning toward the wetter side of things, but keeping those rain chances close to the coast (south of I-10) for now.

Another potential will be tides. Models are forecasting a decent pressure gradient to develop over the northern Gulf as pressures lower in the western Gulf. Long fetch ESE to SE wind on the east side of the possible tropical system will support both an increase in seas and tides. Seas will build into the 3-5 foot range by Saturday and 5-8 feet over the weekend (possibly higher). Favorable wind direction will support water movement toward the coast and expect the response to be increasing tides over the weekend. Tides could run 1-2 feet above normal over the weekend due to increasing swells and the favorable wind direction. Should the tropical system develop to our south these numbers will need to be bumped up some. There is the potential for a prolonged coastal flooding event given the very slow nature of this system, but how high both the seas and tides will go are uncertain until it can be determined where the surface low will likely form. Pattern is very similar to TS Frances 1998 which brought a prolonged storm surge of 6-8 feet to the upper TX coast over several days.

I would encourage residents to continue to monitor the weather forecasts for this weekend and early next week closely as rapid changes may be required depending on the evolution of the Gulf system.

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Srain

Srain

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HPC 5 Day QPF Totals...subject to changes...

...GULF COAST REGION...

AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO

AND GULF COAST STATES... AS THE GUIDANCE CAPTURES A SIGNIFICANT

POOLING AND POSSIBLE SURGE OF DEEP LL/TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE

WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON THURS AND FRI. HOWEVER... A

NUMBER OF THESE MODELS ALSO INCLUDE SIGNS ON A DEVELOPING BROAD OR

EVEN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

NEEDLESS TO SAY... THERE IS PLENTY OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY. THE

ONE VERY CONSISTENT AND CONSERVATIVE SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE THE

OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND HPC FOLLOWED THIS MODEL ALONG WITH THE MEAN

850 MB FLOW AS A BASE FOR QPF BOTH DAYS. THE DEEP FLOW OVER THE

GULF SHOULD ADVECT AN INFLUX OF AOA OR GREATER THAN 2 INCH PWS

INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TX COASTLINE FOR BETTER ENHANCED

SHOWER/CONVECTION ACTIVITY BOTH DAYS... ESPECIALLY IN LA/SERN TX.

post-32-0-56835200-1314794594.gif

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