TS Harvey

[HurricaneJosh]

Lookin' good. Very encouraged by these trends.

[k***]

Hispaniola will protect us.

[phil882]

SAL will do it's dirty work in the short term, but this system definately has legs. I don't have much to add from what Adam said earlier, but as most have noted, this is the system to watch for the long term.

[tornadotony]

It looks like NHC has finally taken the JWDM out of the BETA phase...

[Cory]

[yoda]

Hopefully I have the right one... but 00z GFS takes 93L on a cruise to N MX... which would jive somewhat with the EURO's ideas

[Ed Lizard]

New GFS beyond resolution chop is wonderful and happy, landfall just South of the Border with rain to Houston, but a Caribbean cruiser up to truncation.

Almost Gilbertish vibes on the track, really can't judge intensity on the GFS, although it seems healthy..

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Well, my very modest observations are as follows:

93L looked absolutely gorgeous when it came off of Africa, and people became very excited with it. I think that may be why everyone is getting all butthurt that it's "dying" (their words, not mine) but what is most important to remember is that this once beautiful low is battling very dry air and terrible shear. HOWEVER, this was expected and was NOT a surprise, so I'm not quite sure why some people are acting as though it was not forecasted to do that. This low will be trackable for many days, and I have a good feeling that if it stays on it's westerly path that it will enter areas of very favorable conditions to intensify. Now, perhaps it won't turn into some monster, but I believe it certainly will be very moderate! I think there is enough fuel, enough relaxed shear and enough moist air in the general vicinity of the Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico area to be able to get perhaps to a Cat 1 strength. Farther than that, I don't know that I have much to say. Any comments would be appreciated-- agree, disagree, banter, yell, scream, cry. Whatever it is, make sure I can learn from it, that's all I ask.

[HurricaneJosh]

New GFS beyond resolution chop is wonderful and happy, landfall just South of the Border with rain to Houston, but a Caribbean cruiser up to truncation.

Almost Gilbertish vibes on the track, really can't judge intensity on the GFS, although it seems healthy..

[Scott747]

There is another storm from 1980 that aligns nicely with our current heat wave. Off by just a few weeks....

http://www.caller.com/news/2011/aug/10/hurricane-allen-put-end-texas-heat-wave-1980/

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Hello, Josh. I've followed you for quite some time now. I truly hope you get an interesting storm to chase this year. <3 Good luck! Here's hoping it's in Texas, they (and my mom) sure do need it.

[Srain]

Some morning WFO snips:

San Juan:

THIS DRY AIR WILL BE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOW BY THE LEADING EDGE OF A

SURFACE LOW...WHICH CURRENTLY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE TROPICAL

ATLANTIC MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA

IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MOST COMPUTER

MODELS AGREED IN A WESTERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 72

HOURS...APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND

WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED A

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE IN

TANDEM WITH THE LOW AT THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE

SYSTEM IN A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER DAY

THREE...THE GFS DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST OF

THE LOW...PRODUCING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AT UPPER LEVELS.

HOWEVER...THE GFS IS INITIALIZING A WEAK SYSTEM. IF THIS

VERIFIES..THEN THE LOW WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

DUE TO ITS CURRENT POSITION...WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE

PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Key West:

MODEL AGREEMENT IS QUITE

DIFFERENT AS THE GFS PRODUCES ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN

CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND DRIVES IT TOWARD JAMAICA FRIDAY...WHILE THE

ECMWF PRODUCES AN OPEN WAVE NEAR THE SAME LOCATION. THE PAST DAY OF

RUNS HAVE PRODUCED SIMILAR LOCATIONS FOR THE SYSTEM SO THE ONLY

PROBLEM WILL BE STRENGTH. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FORECAST DUE

TO THE GFS CONSISTENTLY OVER INTENSIFYING SYSTEMS THIS YEAR SO

FAR...AND WE ARE STILL 7 DAYS OUT. WILL KEEP VIGIL ON THE TROPICS AS

USUAL AND UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

New Orleans:

AS WE APPROACH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH

WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS THE

BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST INTO THE SE CONUS. THE

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ROUGHLY ALONG 35W

WILL HAVE TRAVERSED THE ATLANTIC AND MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BY THE

END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM THAT SHOULD CATCH A GOOD

BIT OF ATTENTION OVER THIS NEXT WEEK. IT SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERN

CARIBBEAN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

Brownsville:

PEERING OUTSIDE OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST

PERIOD...BOTH GFS AND THE ECMWF ADVERTISE A TROPICAL SYSTEM

ENTERING THE GULF SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA ONE WEEK FROM MONDAY. LOTS OF TIME AND REAL ESTATE TO

OVERCOME...BUT WORTH MONITORING.

[SN_Lover]

Invest 93 looks promising from the models.

[Ed Lizard]

Especially when giving less attention to the statistical and climatology models. Using SHIPS as guidance, and not a verbatim forecast, no appreciable increase in strength/organization is likely today.

It appears some of the Euro ensembles are more enthusiastic about 93L near the Yucatan than the operational.

[Big O]

Especially when giving less attention to the statistical and climatology models. Using SHIPS as guidance, and not a verbatim forecast, no appreciable increase in strength/organization is likely today.

It appears some of the Euro ensembles are more enthusiastic about 93L near the Yucatan than the operational.

Link please.

[am19psu]

I took 93L through the Caribbean today with a moderate chance to develop east of the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday. If it doesn't develop then, I'm not expecting it to find favorable conditions until it gets into the Western Caribbean next weekend. Of course, there are worse places for systems to develop.

[Srain]

While it appears no 12Z forecast track guidance will be issued for 93L, the pouch does remain intact and will need to be monitored as it continues W bound toward the Caribbean Islands...

SYNOPSIS 2011081300

P15L … 93L

12N, 33W

700 hPa

ECMWF: Large, easily tracked pouch with steady but only slight intensification.

GFS: Distinct, strong pouch with a westward track. After slight weakening on Day 1, gradual intensification as it eventually moves into the Caribbean.

UKMET: (Not available)

NOGAPS: Moves westward with steady OW values.

HWRF-GEN: Similar to GFS.

ECMWF -8.9 v700 & TPW 120h

GFS -9.8 v700 120h

UKMET ---- ---- ---h

NOGAPS -6.7 v700 & RH 120h

HWGEN -8.8 v700 120h

[Srain]

The 12Z FS suggests 93L will continue zipping along W bound around 15+ kts through the Caribbean until next Thursday. While some strengthening is suggested E of the Islands, significant increase in vortisity (both in the 850 and 500mb level) does not occur until the Central Caribbean when the forward motions slows dramatically. I continue to believe this will be a player and it should make for some very interesting conversations next week...

[Ed Lizard]

Slowing low level flow is associated with surface convergence, and if the usual Westerlies are present, a decrease in shear. It is why the Western Caribbean is generally more favorable than the Eastern Caribbean.

I'm excited just at the chance for a rainmaker that will help at least some of Texas.

[Ivanhater]

[hurricaneman]

If the gfs 12z happens, Texas would get that needed rain but at what cost

[bkviking]

If the gfs 12z happens, Texas would get that needed rain but at what cost

They're Texans--they'll leave the union if they have to. But big or small they NEED a big rainmaker. I'm disgusted with rain up in NE here lately so I hope Texas takes the baton.

[Srain]

The 12Z Euro suggests 93L will clip along W bound until landfall along the Nicaragua/Honduras Coast. That model also suggests some modest strengthening near hour 144 until landfall...

[Ed Lizard]

Looking pretty lame on satellite, but still has a decent (not great, but decent) appearance on the CIMSS TPW loop.

HPC disco

NO CHANGES TO AFTN FINALS FROM EARLIER PRELIMS. LATEST GFS

TRENDING TOWARDS THE ENS MEANS USED PREVIOUSLY OF GFS/ECMWF AND

NAEFS. ONLY ADDITIONAL FEATURE ADDED IS TROPICAL DEPICTION OF AL93

ENTERING THE CARRIBEAN WITH SEVERAL MODELS INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM

LATE PERIOD AND BEYOND AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT. SEE NHC/TPC DISCUSSIONS AND OUTLOOKS.

RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN

[HurricaneJosh]

Hello, Josh. I've followed you for quite some time now. I truly hope you get an interesting storm to chase this year. <3 Good luck! Here's hoping it's in Texas, they (and my mom) sure do need it.

Oh, hey! How's it going? Thanks for your well wishes. Nice to meet you, and welcome aboard.

Some morning WFO snips:

Awesome, Steve-- thanks for compiling those. It was great to see this overview of viewpoints in one place.

I took 93L through the Caribbean today with a moderate chance to develop east of the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday. If it doesn't develop then, I'm not expecting it to find favorable conditions until it gets into the Western Caribbean next weekend. Of course, there are worse places for systems to develop.

Noice.

The 12Z FS suggests 93L will continue zipping along W bound around 15+ kts through the Caribbean until next Thursday. While some strengthening is suggested E of the Islands, significant increase in vortisity (both in the 850 and 500mb level) does not occur until the Central Caribbean when the forward motions slows dramatically. I continue to believe this will be a player and it should make for some very interesting conversations next week...

That frame is hawt-- with a deep cyclone in the C Caribbean. Haven't seen that in a few years.

[Ed Lizard]

If the gfs 12z happens, Texas would get that needed rain but at what cost

There are only 4 significant metro areas on the Texas coast that I can think of, BPT, HOU, CRP and BRO. Unless it is a Carla style mega-storm, it would have to hit within about 100 miles with the RF quad to do significant damage. Bret in 1999 was a Cat 4 that weakened to a Cat 4, and hit between BRO and CRP with no major population affects, except for the evacuations.

I'm not saying people in smaller coastal communities like Rockport or Palacios don't count, but unlike much of the Atlantic Coast, there are places in Texas even a significant storm can hit without too much damage. As far as significant storms, in such a drought year in Northern Mexico and Texas, what would be fairly insignificant shear for a big storm approaching Florida could act to introduce dry air to an identical system approaching Texas.

[Srain]

As far as significant storms, in such a drought year in Northern Mexico and Texas, what would be fairly insignificant shear for a big storm approaching Florida could act to introduce dry air to an identical system approaching Texas.

Just to be clear, TX was in a drought situation in the summer of 2008, although not as severe. A well developed vertically stacked cyclone with an intact inner core would lend to less fluctuation of some continental dry air intrusion.

[Quixotic1]

There are only 4 significant metro areas on the Texas coast that I can think of, BPT, HOU, CRP and BRO. Unless it is a Carla style mega-storm, it would have to hit within about 100 miles with the RF quad to do significant damage. Bret in 1999 was a Cat 4 that weakened to a Cat 4, and hit between BRO and CRP with no major population affects, except for the evacuations.

I'm not saying people in smaller coastal communities like Rockport or Palacios don't count, but unlike much of the Atlantic Coast, there are places in Texas even a significant storm can hit without too much damage. As far as significant storms, in such a drought year in Northern Mexico and Texas, what would be fairly insignificant shear for a big storm approaching Florida could act to introduce dry air to an identical system approaching Texas.

I agree. With the exception of Galveston, I think most of the Texas coast is either sparsely populated enough to where it doesn't matter, or the major metro areas are far enough inland to not get the worst. The only caveat I would add would be a system like Allison in 2001 or Charley in 1998 when they stalled out and dumped inland. That said, I'd take that rain right now. I wouldn't even think about it.

[Marion_NC_WX]

18z GFS follows suit of the 12z EURO taking 93L due west into Central America...

[HurricaneJosh]

I'm liking the W trend in the models, and I know weak = good right now if we want it to get W and not fish-- but now I'm getting a tad worried about the system holding together. The evening TWO reduces it to 0%-- barely a lemon anymore. Grrrr.