CUmet Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 There actually is quite a bit of rotation and curvature on the visibles this morning, it's just isn't obvious because of the storm motion. I still expect development from this before it reaches the Yucatan. The ECMWF ensembles are all pretty bullish on development: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 There actually is quite a bit of rotation and curvature on the visibles this morning, it's just isn't obvious because of the storm motion. I still expect development from this before it reaches the Yucatan. The ECMWF ensembles are all pretty bullish on development: Agree with your assessment. Its hard to ignore the ECMWF in light of the ensemble support and expected favorable conditions. The storm isn't very well organized yet and will take some time to get going with the fast forward motion, but all signs point towards a Western Caribbean genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 I can't tell if they canx the plane for 93L or not... I would have. The reason I can't tell is yesterday's POD didn't have any more Gert or 92L tasking, just an invest on 93L. NOUS42 KNHC 161530 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1130 AM EDT TUE 16 AUGUST 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-077 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. 17/1800Z B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST C. 17/1545Z D. 15.0N 74.50W E. 17/1615Z TO 18/2015Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 18/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS. 3. REMARK: INVEST FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA FOR 16/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1300Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. TMB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 0z Euro is a bit north and stronger before the Yucatan landfall... I would still like some more latitude gain. Also, the Euro shows significant organization for the next 6 hours, let's see what it looks like in the morning Looks like the euro is the one to ride for now... the GFS is oblivious to the current developments (not great, but you can't ask for anything more, considering the lameness of just 12 hours ago). The HWRF is way out there, but considering it's still an incipient storm, the model has the right idea, but obviously it's too strong/north. A sub 1000mb is highly likely, IMO, before the Yucatan, but 90+kts is not realistic. We are still ~24-48 hours away from a TD, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Looks like the euro is the one to ride for now... the GFS is oblivious to the current developments (not great, but you can't ask for anything more, considering the lameness of just 12 hours ago). The HWRF is way out there, but considering it's still an incipient storm, the model has the right idea, but obviously it's too strong/north. A sub 1000mb is highly likely, IMO, before the Yucatan, but 90+kts is not realistic. We are still ~24-48 hours away from a TD, I think. Disagree. It's the one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Disagree. It's the one to watch. Distinct TW, but still a long trail to walk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Could this system pull a Wilma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Still a lemon, as of the 2 pm EDT TWO. But they sound optimistic Re: its future-- probably because of the bullishness of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Could this system pull a Wilma? Absolutely. It might even outdo it. Pressure in the 870s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Never makes it to being a named storm, but the new GFDL tracks it across the Yucatan into the BoC as a very weak low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Still a lemon, as of the 2 pm EDT TWO. But they sound optimistic Re: its future-- probably because of the bullishness of the models. I don't get to see the Euro early, but GFDL, GFS, Canadian and NoGaps don't seem bullish. Best a weak CA/Yucatan hit. The 12Z SHIPS and the HWRF would seem to be outweighed by the bears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 Just scoping out GFS forecast 250 mb and 850 mb flow in 5 days if it does make the BoC. SE low level winds and NE 250 mb winds would produce some Northerly shear. Before then, while most models aren't too excited, the HWRF would put a strong Cat 2 near the Belize/Mexico border in a little over four days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 16, 2011 Share Posted August 16, 2011 This definitely is getting better organized, as the vorticity appears to have increased during the day today. The low clouds on the southern and southwestern sides are slowing down, and the inflow to the southeast and east is increasing. The circulation is apparent in the storm-relative frame, and appears to have intensified. This probably has another 48 hours or so before TD status, but it's getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I don't get to see the Euro early, but GFDL, GFS, Canadian and NoGaps don't seem bullish. Best a weak CA/Yucatan hit. The 12Z SHIPS and the HWRF would seem to be outweighed by the bears. At the time I made that post, I was referring to the Euro and the SHIPS, which has been insistently bringing this up to a 'cane for a couple of days now. Of course I don't count the HWRF in any realistic intensity discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This definitely is getting better organized, as the vorticity appears to have increased during the day today. The low clouds on the southern and southwestern sides are slowing down, and the inflow to the southeast and east is increasing. The circulation is apparent in the storm-relative frame, and appears to have intensified. This probably has another 48 hours or so before TD status, but it's getting there. Yep-- I was looking at the IR imagery a little while ago, and while the convection has fizzled a bit with the dmin, the system seems to have a more cyclonic shape to it now. I'm hoping it gets a boost overnight-- that seems to be the pattern with this one. (It seems hardwired to flare and ebb with the diurnal cycles.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Invest 93L has such a beautiful cyclonic structure. I'll never figure out why it's not developing quickly, shear is minimal and the dry air is slightly displaced. Follows the general theme so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 getting organized now.. they should go to 40 or 50% at the 2 am TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 850mb Vorticity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 0z NAMx shifts hundreds of miles North and looks like it would move 93L through the Yucatan Channel. Less land interaction would be good non-interaction . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 0z NAMx shifts hundreds of miles North and looks like it would move 93L through the Yucatan Channel. Less land interaction would be good non-interaction . Most of the models (including the low tropical value NAM) that develop 93 robustly early, have a northerly track, which is what one would expect...and vice versa for the models depicting a weaker/slower strengthening system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Not sure how this verifies. But im thinking that because the convection was displaced North of the "center" of the invest, that hispanola has something to do with it's slow progression. It does seem its made a slight southward jog with the heavier convection, but it has to start over again. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=93L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I think its a good sign that convection didn't compleatly dissipate like yesterday at this time, which might be indicating that the vorticity of the storm is increasing and allowing for additional convection to be generated through vorticity rather than buoyancy. The only major roadblock I see for development beyond this point is the central American coastline. It will need to gain a couple of degrees in latitude in order to make it into the Western Caribbean. The mid-level ridge according to the GFS is not too strong. Thus, if 93l ends up developing faster than expected (say in the next 24 hours or so) it will likely also gain the required latitude to clear the first bend in Central America. That's a big if though, with a lot of this system's future resting on what tonight's diurnal max brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 It sure looks like a cyclone this evening. A rather dry one, but a cyclone. It has a swirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 It sure looks like a cyclone this evening. A rather dry one, but a cyclone. It has a swirl. The representation is also improving on microwave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 On the plus side, NHC bumped it up to tangerine (30%) at the 2am outlook. OTOH, satellite could look better..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Well... It's been manadarined (as of 2 am EDT) so I guess that's progress! Still no sign of a surface circulation or falling pressures, but the development prospect is increased to 30%. Definite banding this evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 It appears that some organization may well be starting with 93L this morning. Earlier SSMI pass suggests mid level rotation and a hint of a surface rotation as well. I believe 93L will need to slow down and then further organization will become a bit more apparent. RECON is scheduled to investigate later today. If convection continues, that mission may well happen, IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Developing banding features, although I fear the center may develop too far South to avoid C.A. and thus deny a solid Joshable Belize/Yucatan hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 It appears that some organization may well be starting with 93L this morning. Earlier SSMI pass suggests mid level rotation and a hint of a surface rotation as well. I believe 93L will need to slow down and then further organization will become a bit more apparent. RECON is scheduled to investigate later today. If convection continues, that mission may well happen, IMO... that's a giant eye there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 May not have an actual West wind yet South of the center, judging from satellite, but it almost certainly by this time tomorrow, and maybe the airplane can close an isobar for a depression. And let Josh chase future Irene in Florida (wishcasting alert). If it does clear C.A and head for Belize, might be Joshable in BZ. Last chase of training camp for Harvey then, opening day facing off with Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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