Max Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I look at the WV imagery, and the environment looks a little dry-- but I've seen much worse. Why is this thing so bald?? It's Dr. Greg Forbes portrayed by 93L. LoL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It's Dr. Greg Forbes portrayed by 93L. LoL Or better yet, Dr. Steve Lyons! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 you guys are hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Or better yet, Dr. Steve Lyons! Both are good candidates, but because Dr. Lyons left, Dr. Forbes came to mind first since I occasionally still watch TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 you guys are hilarious Nicest thing you've ever said on these boards. 93L has a very short timeframe to do something dramatic (tonight) to drastically shift the model consensus northward, IMO. This will be, at best, a southern Belieze hit if we have status quo overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Nicest thing you've ever said on these boards. 93L has a very short timeframe to do something dramatic (tonight) to drastically shift the model consensus northward, IMO. This will be, at best, a southern Belieze hit if we have status quo overnight. There's a little upper-level low near the Yucatan right now, but I agree it needs to gain some depth to its circulation to even have a chance to gain some latitude the next 24 to 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'm rooting against 93L because I want the biggie from Africa to be Hurricane Harvey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Nicest thing you've ever said on these boards. 93L has a very short timeframe to do something dramatic (tonight) to drastically shift the model consensus northward, IMO. This will be, at best, a southern Belieze hit if we have status quo overnight. It's Actually a virus I uploaded to AmericanWX. It occasionaly posts "You Guys are Awesome" or "You guys are Hilarious" from random screen names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I'm rooting against 93L because I want the biggie from Africa to be Hurricane Harvey Well you still couldn't call it Triple H even if you are a big WWE fan because it would only be HH. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This thread seems to have strayed a bit. Back on topic... Would any of the pro mets-- or super-knowledgeable non-mets, like wxmx-- like to offer some thoughts Re: the system's landfall point and intensity? Specifically, 1) what are the changes it misses NI/HN and makes it to BZ/MX and 2) will it be named? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This thread seems to have strayed a bit. Back on topic... Would any of the pro mets-- or super-knowledgeable non-mets, like wxmx-- like to offer some thoughts Re: the system's landfall point and intensity? Specifically, 1) what are the changes it misses NI/HN and makes it to BZ/MX and 2) will it be named? I'll give it a shot. Model trends have been to dive this thing wsw near the Honduras/Nicaragua border, past couple of days. The only model that manages to miss these countries is the NAM and we know the NAM ain't a good tropical model. The trends during the day today have been encouraging for 93L, but with such a fast motion, unless it slows down dramatically soon, it looks to just slam the northern coast moving at a westward direction. Prospects don't look good as we do not see much convection over the potential center, and also because of the fast motion which is also prohibiting rapid development. I can see this thing making a run for a 50kt storm but with little northward component to its motion, it doesn't look too promising. 93L is a small system too so it is also very fragile to small changes in the atmosphere so this little buggah looks like another deadbeat, and you probably shouldn't get a ticket to Central America anytime soon Josh. My two cents on the matter! Only thing going for this is, nice upper-level anti-cyclone over the top of it providing less than 10kts of shear, not much dry air that I can see, but because it is moving so fast and it is fairly small, I just don't see how this thing can gain any latitude or slow down before it hits the northern coast of HN/NI. Probably another name waster too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The next few hours will seal the fate, IMO. I see a back building (or stationary) convective element near "the center" that may connect with other elements in the next hour or so....if this leads to some explosive convection, I could see this spin up pretty good overnight....if that does not happen, I'd go with about a 15-25% chance of it missing Nic/Honduras...If we see such vigorous convection develop (very soon) those percentages, IMO, would go up to maybe 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This thread seems to have strayed a bit. you guys are awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This thread seems to have strayed a bit. Back on topic... Would any of the pro mets-- or super-knowledgeable non-mets, like wxmx-- like to offer some thoughts Re: the system's landfall point and intensity? Specifically, 1) what are the changes it misses NI/HN and makes it to BZ/MX and 2) will it be named? I'll stick to what I said last night. This storm had about a 24 hour window to intensify into a tropical cyclone and become more vertically deep allowing it to be steered by the mid-levels rather than the low level flow. We are approaching the the end of this 24 hour period, but I think that if 93L can develop in the next 12 hours or so, it still has a chance of clearing NI/HN. With the center being near 16N currently, it just needs to gain another degree of latitude to clear this coastline. Intensity wise, I still think 93L can become a minimal tropical storm even if it doesn't gain enough latitude. However, if it can squeeze just far enough north, I think it could get significantly stronger in the warm waters in the Western Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 As I mentioned a few posts back, regarding a "connection" within the center curvature signature,we might get some new convective growth.... and now, at the connection point, we have a burst of convection just starting, right near where any surface development might be taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 As I mentioned a few posts back, regarding a "connection" within the center curvature signature,we might get some new convective growth.... and now, at the connection point, we have a burst of convection just starting, right near where any surface development might be taking place. If you loop the IR, you can see the low-level circulation becoming established. It actually looks better organized than earlier this afternoon rotation-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 If you loop the IR, you can see the low-level circulation becoming established. It actually looks better organized than earlier this afternoon rotation-wise. Yep....we just need to get a nice tall hat for our burgeoning system.....and quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The problem is the Vortex gets streched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The problem is the Vortex gets streched. If this spins up quickly, you can thow out (or adjust them northward) most of the models...especially the NAM....none of the major globals intensify this. It looks like pretty good right now from an IR standpoint (organization in the lower levels along with new bursts of convection near any supposed center area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 The problem is the Vortex gets streched. Actually the problem with that image you posted above is that its the NAM which doesn't accurately resolve tropical features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I see microscopic specs of red on the IR. Woo hoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Looking better than it has...and the slow down appears to have started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Quite a few hot towers going up right now... bodes well for the future of 93L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Quite a few hot towers going up right now... bodes well for the future of 93L. yeah but... loops suggest it won't clear Honduras. But, silver lining, that puts the long awaited Atlantic lemon as Irene if this gets named before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This is on the brink of closing off a center based on looking at the motion of the low clouds and shallow convection on satellite imagery. I have very high confidence that this will be a TD/TS by the time recon gets there tomorrow, and it'll probably be apparent that the circulation is closed on tomorrow morning's visibles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 This is on the brink of closing off a center based on looking at the motion of the low clouds and shallow convection on satellite imagery. I have very high confidence that this will be a TD/TS by the time recon gets there tomorrow, and it'll probably be apparent that the circulation is closed on tomorrow morning's visibles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ATROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUESTO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TOFALL NEAR THE DISTURBANCE AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEMTO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRALAMERICA IN A DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND EASTERN YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THEPROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH ATROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUESTO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TOFALL NEAR THE DISTURBANCE AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEMTO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRALAMERICA IN A DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND EASTERN YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THEPROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. It may just have time to actually form despite the forward speed pushing it toward Honduras at a fast clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 yeah but... loops suggest it won't clear Honduras. But, silver lining, that puts the long awaited Atlantic lemon as Irene if this gets named before landfall. NOOOO!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 It looks like it's really coming together now-- a small, but nicely-centralized little system. The big issue now is latitude. It's got to gain a half degree or more really soon or its going to be like a bug hitting the windshield-- ppffffffft! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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