battlebrick Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 double landfall per nhc (honduras then belize). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Minimal TS scraping the N coast of HN for two days. The end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Minimal TS scraping the N coast of NH for two days. The end. yup.. this was stupid on to 97L and 98L! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 8 for 8, possibly a record not broken in our lifetimes if it does get named tomorrow... /always half full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 8/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Please let them just find an isolated 35-kt barb tomorrow so they can name this Harvey, we can be done with that name, and we can continue our cool loser streak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Please let them just find an isolated 35-kt barb tomorrow so they can name this Harvey, we can be done with that name, and we can continue our cool loser streak! The I storms are always good.. especially in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The I storms are always good.. especially in 2016. Personally, I'm pulling for Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Personally, I'm pulling for Jose. You could use a TD8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Personally, I'm pulling for Jose. Ditto. Hurricane Irene has been done to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Please let them just find an isolated 35-kt barb tomorrow so they can name this Harvey, we can be done with that name, and we can continue our cool loser streak! How cool would it be to be chase-less in '11 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The large amount of convection to the north of TD#8 still might leave open the possibility for a center relocation further north. However, I think this was just a case of too little too late, as the storm still doesn't have much vertical depth with scattered convection continuing but nothing really consolidated like a CDO appearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like it's getting a little bit of dmax help-- which has been the rule with this system. Still looks like crap, but there's convection now, at least. Also, I'm wondering if all that energy to the N of the advisory center might drag or relocate it a little more N. Wishful thinking maybe. I just want this trash heap to hit 35 kt and get the nerd name it deserves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Well it appears the convection is trying to pull the circulation further north... This microwave shot below leads me to believe its above 16N now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like it's getting a little bit of dmax help-- which has been the rule with this system. Still looks like crap, but there's convection now, at least. Also, I'm wondering if all that energy to the N of the advisory center might drag or relocate it a little more N. Wishful thinking maybe. I just what this trash heap to hit 35 kt and get the nerd name it deserves! Good timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Good timing Oh, cool! It's nice to get the pro-met seal of approval for my IR interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Interesting-- despite our reads of the latest IR and MW imagery, the 5 am EDT package puts the center at 15.5N-- indicating not latitude gain since 2 am EDT. Whatevz. I bet you recon finds the center further N this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Interesting-- despite our reads of the latest IR and MW imagery, the 5 am EDT package puts the center at 15.5N-- indicating not latitude gain since 2 am EDT. Whatevz. I bet you recon finds the center further N this morning. I wonder if the AMSRE microwave pass came in before the advisory was issued, but it certainly seems like the position is further north than that, around 16N 83W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I wonder if the AMSRE microwave pass came in before the advisory was issued, but it certainly seems like the position is further north than that, around 16N 83W Totally. Maybe it's not 16.0N, but based on that MW, I'd put it at 15.8N or .9N. I'll bet you're right-- that they completed the analysis and wrote up the advisory before seeing these latest images, because they clearly show a center much further-N than what the advisory indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Unless I am clueless at reading HDOBs, they are inland over Honduras now and not near the center of 8... But I'm sure they have a reason, Or I'm clueless... 112800 1446N 08104W 3927 07713 0401 -166 -222 118007 008 020 001 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Recon getting ready to make center pass, up to 15.75N with west winds still, so the center will be North of the advisory position, but they are just about to the center so it shouldn't be that much farther North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Center (fixed from 850mb) is at roughly 16.0N, 83.3W, extrap pressure 1003.5mb. From here, 270 degree motion would lead to a scrape of the coast, while 280 degree motion would keep it solidly in the water. It looks like it has avoided land for the time being, .4 north and .4 East of the advisory location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Center location was significant enough for an update with no change in winds. With this giving it far more time over water not along the coast, I'd expect some decent size changes with the 11am advisory. ZCZC MIATCUAT3 ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 835 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST... REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION IN THE 8 AM INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. SUMMARY OF 835 AM EDT...1235 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 83.3W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Talk about a relocation just in time... that increase the chances of TS and Harvey naming. It actually looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Me and Josh feel vindicated from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Recon just made the second center fix, 850mb center went from (minute format) 1600N 8318W, to 1603N 8322W in roughly an hour or so, so very slow motion for the moment, but gaining latitude. Extrap pressure held steady at 1003.5mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Last pass has it NW. Also a nice hot tower going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 19th day of the month at 13:25Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Tropical Depression: Number 8 (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 3 Observation Number: 13 A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 13:07:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°03'N 83°23'W (16.05N 83.3833W) B. Center Fix Location: 261 miles (419 km) to the SSW (210°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,459m (4,787ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 30kts (~ 34.5mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the WSW (255°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 350° at 28kts (From the N at ~ 32.2mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the WSW (255°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Wind Outbound: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:18:30Z Maximum Flight Level Wind: 38kts (~ 43.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:18:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looking at the dropsondes, the system appears to be organizing. Last hour, the drop was released at the 850mb center, with 2kt winds at 850mb, and spashed with 17kt west winds. This pass, it was also dropped at the 850mb center, and the highest winds at any level were 6kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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