mappy Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 OMG... we are all going to die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Didn't we have an X28 in 2003? I recall some amazing northern lights but even then the power grid managed to do ok. November 4 2003-it was initially rated as X28 but a later study indicates that it may have reached X44. Iy was a limb flare so no direct hit occurred from the CME. It was a wonder to observed through a telescope. The same region produced a X17 in late October that resulted in the 5th most intense Gemag storm on record on October 29-30 with Aurbo seen in FL and the upper Tropics. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Given the speed of propagation (1900 km/sec) plus the fact that the CME has swept up two others and we have a fairly hefty proton event in progress, assuming the polaity of the magnetic fields of the CME are favorable and strong, the intial impact could be stronger than G3 (Kp=7) especially in the initial phase of the storm. Unfotunately, the forecast arrival time is after sunrise in the US and still daylight in Europe so any show is likely to be an Asian and Southern one. However, the 7 hour period of opportunity prior to 1300Z is during the favorable midnight to dawn period in the US so an early impact could bring a show to the US and to latitudes further south than indicated. One important thing to note-aurorae respond to short period changes in the field so monitoring either the USAF hourly Gemag reports or actual magnetometer traces (such as those on the HAARP site) is a must. When you see the values rise rapidly it's time to look. The Bz values plus the Bt on Spaceweather .com are also useful you want to see strong negative values on the former and strong values in the latter. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 November 4 2003-it was initially rated as X28 but a later study indicates that it may have reached X44. Iy was a limb flare so no direct hit occurred from the CME. It was a wonder to observed through a telescope. The same region produced a X17 in late October that resulted in the 5th most intense Gemag storm on record on October 29-30 with Aurbo seen in FL and the upper Tropics. Steve If that would have hit earth we would have been in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Only going to have minimal impacts to Earth: http://technorati.com/technology/article/major-series-of-solar-flares-to/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 Only going to have minimal impacts to Earth: http://technorati.co...olar-flares-to/ It is weird cause NWS still says G3 which means Significant. Info is all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It is weird cause NWS still says G3 which means Significant. Info is all over the place. significant in terms of a geomagnetic event...not a huge one by any means. Major impacts to earth is clearly overstated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 significant in terms of a geomagnetic event...not a huge one by any means. Major impacts to earth is clearly overstated... Changed it to Moderate. Should be cool to see Aurora pictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 If that would have hit earth we would have been in trouble. The Carrington event is estimated to have been X44-X46, so yes, we would have been in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 November 4 2003-it was initially rated as X28 but a later study indicates that it may have reached X44. Iy was a limb flare so no direct hit occurred from the CME. It was a wonder to observed through a telescope. The same region produced a X17 in late October that resulted in the 5th most intense Gemag storm on record on October 29-30 with Aurbo seen in FL and the upper Tropics. Steve Yeah I saw the northern lights on Long Island on October 30th of that year. I have seen them once in NC too. Ironically all this after taking a trip to Alaska to see the aurora in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Yeah I saw the northern lights on Long Island on October 30th of that year. I have seen them once in NC too. Ironically all this after taking a trip to Alaska to see the aurora in 2000. I saw the northern lights here in SC back in March of 1989. Was scared until I realized what I was seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Didn't we have an X28 in 2003? I recall some amazing northern lights but even then the power grid managed to do ok. I know there was a fairly impressive event in the winter of 04-05, I remember a great Northern Light show that lit the entire Northern sky up one night back in Mount Pleasant. I want to say it was in November of 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Did it hit yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 The first CME impact was weak, two more on the horizon, they may have/might merge before impact strengthening the relative magnetic field. Nothing more than a light show probably, but impact time is progged after sunrise anyway, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Did it hit yet? no...the forecast time is 1355 UTC for arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Here's the link to the planetary Kp Index. Anything above 5 indicates storm, with auroras potentially visible along the Canadian/US border at 5 kp, and down to the Boston latitude at 6 to 7 kp, and further south at 8 kp and higher. Here's a primer for what the Kp means and what it needs to be for your latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 Should be hitting soon I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Hearing about some HF problems with flights north of 71N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Hearing about some HF problems with flights north of 71N. HF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 HF? High Frequency radio communications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 CME impact must be a few hours late...not really too much going on magnetically at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 CME impact must be a few hours late...not really too much going on magnetically at the moment. They had a plus or minus 7 hrs on the deadline so anytime within 4 hrs. Will be interesting to see how high it goes. If at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Unlike pretty much every other solar "event" over the past few years, this one actually looks pretty promising. Thankfully the CME is running late... the later the better. Camera batteries are on the charger. It's been so long that I needed to check the manual to find the long exposure settings on my camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Unlike pretty much every other solar "event" over the past few years, this one actually looks pretty promising. Thankfully the CME is running late... the later the better. Camera batteries are on the charger. It's been so long that I needed to check the manual to find the long exposure settings on my camera. It will be interesting to track the northern lights. Mabye they will be visible @ 40N and below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Unlike pretty much every other solar "event" over the past few years, this one actually looks pretty promising. Thankfully the CME is running late... the later the better. Camera batteries are on the charger. It's been so long that I needed to check the manual to find the long exposure settings on my camera. i'm concerned about clouds and fog in our area...hopefully there is enough of a break to see something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 i'm concerned about clouds and fog in our area...hopefully there is enough of a break to see something good. Good luck. Looks like the CME just arrived so my optimism level just dropped... it might be winding down by the time it gets dark here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Good luck. Looks like the CME just arrived so my optimism level just dropped... it might be winding down by the time it gets dark here. sometimes these type of things last for several hours. Why are you looking at to think it's arrived? nm: I saw the dynamic pressure and solar wind go up substantially on SWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 sometimes these type of things last for several hours. Why are you looking at to think it's arrived? Maybe this is just a piece of one of the other CME's... 510 km/s is way to slow to be the main event I would think. They show up nicely on the speed plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 5, 2011 Author Share Posted August 5, 2011 CME IMPACT--NOW: NASA's ACE spacecraft, which measures the speed of the solar wind just upstream of Earth, indicates that a CME impact on our planet may be in progress. Stay tuned for updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I'm preparing to continue normal activities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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