EasternUSWX Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 EARTH-DIRECTED BLAST: Sunspot 1261 erupted on August 2nd at 0619 UT, producing a long-duration M1-class solar flare. At the peak of the event, the sunspot's magnetic canopy was beautifully illuminated by extreme ultraviolet radiation, shown here in an image from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory: The blast hurled a CME almost directly toward Earth. Three spacecraft (SOHO, STEREO-A and STEREO- tracked the progress of the expanding cloud. Using data from those three points of view, analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab made a 3-dimensional model of the CME. According to their work, the cloud left the sun traveling 900 km/s and should reach Earth on August 5th at 0300 UT plus or minus 7 hours. Polar geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Impact to our orbiting satellites.... nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 M6-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth orbiting satellites have just detected a significant M6-class solar flare. The source appears to be sunspot 1261. Increased energetic proton fluxes are possible in the vicinity of Earth. Stay tuned for updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 M6-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth orbiting satellites have just detected a significant M6-class solar flare. The source appears to be sunspot 1261. Increased energetic proton fluxes are possible in the vicinity of Earth. Stay tuned for updates. Unless you are the author (Dr. Tony Phillips), you should link directly to spaceweather.com. Without a link or citation, you are claiming this article as your own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 M6-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Earth orbiting satellites have just detected a significant M6-class solar flare. The source appears to be sunspot 1261. Increased energetic proton fluxes are possible in the vicinity of Earth. Stay tuned for updates. Nice, that one is a bit more interesting, how much more powerful was that compared to the M-1. Many times larger correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 Nice, that one is a bit more interesting, how much more powerful was that compared to the M-1. Many times larger correct? Yes it is quite strong. Almost X Class which would cause some significant problems to earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 According to NOAA there is no current advisories out for this... There was a R2 earlier today but even then the scale says that those happen about 300 days in a sun cycle (11 years).. Impressive to look at but no impacts as far as any technology on earth or in space.. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center NOAA SPWC Definition of a R2 alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 3, 2011 Author Share Posted August 3, 2011 According to NOAA there is no current advisories out for this... There was a R2 earlier today but even then the scale says that those happen about 300 days in a sun cycle (11 years).. Impressive to look at but no impacts as far as any technology on earth or in space.. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center NOAA SPWC Definition of a R2 alert Just happened about an hour ago. Data might not be taken in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Sun just exploded again. Almost X Class Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Sun just exploded again. How big of an event are we looking at here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 How big of an event are we looking at here? M 9.2. Pretty large. Last one was M6 and could cause some issues by the 5th-7th. We will see what the data shows for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 M 9.2. Pretty large. Last one was M6 and could cause some issues by the 5th-7th. We will see what the data shows for this one. That's a biggie but I remember the X28 back in 2003 not directed at earth and immensely larger than any of these the last few days. It all seems to come down to if it is directed right at us or not. If it was not directed right at us we have nothing to worry about. If it was then some minor issues could occur with these past two M6 and M9.2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 what impact does this have on our climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Little if any.. Little if any direct impact in a measurable sense from just 1 CME, over time more of these can affect the upper atmosphere in ways that may increase/decrease high frequency radiation entering into the oceans, OHC would be effected, long term. The Peak of the Magnetic Solar aspect ended in the 2003-05 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Of course were looking at showers in the northeast. 5-7... could we see Aurora in NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 From Spaceweather.com Last nights CME Moving at an estimated speed of 1950 km/s, this CME is expected to sweep up two earlier CMEs already en route. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say thecombined cloud should reach Earth on August 5th at 13:55 UT plus or minus 7 hours: "The impact on Earth is likely to be major. The estimated maximum geomagnetic activity index level Kp is 7 (Kp ranges from 0 - 9). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 From NWS 1500Z, August 4, 2011 - Great anticipation for the first of what may be three convergent shocks to slam the geomagnetic field in the next twelve hours, +/-. The CME with the Radio Blackout earlier today is by far the fastest, and may catch its forerunners in the early hours of August 5 (UTC) -- at earth. Two impacts are expected; G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming on August 5, and potentially elevated protons to the S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm condition, those piling up ahead of the shock. The source of it all, Region 1261, is still hot, so more eruptions are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 This is pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 For those of us who don't speak solar , what does this all mean? As far as comms, service disruptions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 For those of us who don't speak solar , what does this all mean? As far as comms, service disruptions? FROM NWS Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 The thread subtitle is grossly incorrect, the flare wasn't even x-class, this is almost run of the mill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 space weather is one clear part the internet has turned the world into a bunch of worried hypesters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Didn't we have an X28 in 2003? I recall some amazing northern lights but even then the power grid managed to do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 space weather is one clear part the internet has turned the world into a bunch of worried hypesters The sun exploded twice, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 The thread subtitle is grossly incorrect, the flare wasn't even x-class, this is almost run of the mill. Thread title does not say it was XClass. It was 9.3M which is close to X Class and the NWS Space prediction is calling for Major impact. With G3 likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Yes but "Major Impacts to Earth" doesn't seem likely, if even possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Everything is so reliant on satellite communications and this could definitely ruin someone's day. No major direct impacts it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Didn't we have an X28 in 2003? I recall some amazing northern lights but even then the power grid managed to do ok. It was not totally earth directed. If it was there would have been severe impacts to earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Yes but "Major Impacts to Earth" doesn't seem likely, if even possible. Two impacts are expected; G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming on August 5, and potentially elevated protons to the S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm condition, those piling up ahead of the shock. The source of it all, Region 1261, is still hot, so more eruptions are possible. Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)**. Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say thecombined cloud should reach Earth on August 5th at 13:55 UT plus or minus 7 hours: "The impact on Earth is likely to be major. The estimated maximum geomagnetic activity index level Kp is 7 (Kp ranges from 0 - 9). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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