Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 SREFs seem slow to bring tstms into SNE. Wonder we see a couple of different lines form. I'm thinking after 3:00 or 4:00 for western areas traversing east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 SREFs seem slow to bring tstms into SNE. Wonder we see a couple of different lines form. That stuck out to me as well, not moving into the I-95 corridor until 8-11PM. WRF also sort of hinted at two lines forming, the latter around the similar 8-11PM time period, but pushed it more towards the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Some nice towering cumulus clouds beginning to build here. Looks like some sort of boundary is apparent on the visible imagery near the NY/MA line. I wonder if this could form into some cells or a line as it moves east of here. Sometimes these things initiate here in the Berks before moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Already 2,500 j/kg of CAPE and 7.5 c/km lapse rates. Only thing holding us back right now is absolutely no shear to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 A few radar blips showing up just to my south in the southern Berks...could be the beginnings of something. Edit: Dark clouds and some big splats of rain coming through here at 10:54 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'll be happy if it all forms east of me. I am sick of rain and cutting grass...... A few radar blips showing up just to my south in the southern Berks...could be the beginnings of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Convection firing S VT and NW MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Essex county might be the place to be for tomorrow. Almost reminds me of July 4th. Yeah. The type that form over Plaistow and Haverhill and explodes near Ipswich and just train over Cape Ann. I'd be down for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 LATEST SPC MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TOBETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ASOF 11 AM. WHILE 0 TO 6 KM WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT STRONG BY ANYMEANS...IT APPEARS THAT STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ALLOWFOR MLCAPES TO EXCEED 2500 J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS AMOUNT OFINSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF WIND SHEAR ANDALLOW FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THISAFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DOPPLER RADAR WAS ALREADY SHOWING SOMESHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. THEREFORE... SCATTEREDSTRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSSINTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH THE COASTAL PLAY BY LATEAFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 nice towers going up around Keene. Had a brief shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 How many deaths has Kevin forecasted for this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 HRRR likes SW CT., looks to be possible SW, front out runs best instability then a late night line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 How many deaths has Kevin forecasted for this afternoon? 700-1000 trees down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 700-1000 trees down. So tree deaths lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 700-1000 trees down. Why is he so conservative? If there was ever a situation that called for dozens of casualties, this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 HRRR likes SW CT., looks to be possible SW, front out runs best instability then a late night line. It actually likes NH and WME too with MA/ECT and RI in the dry hole 7-10 split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 When will the watch be issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 HRRR likes SW CT., looks to be possible SW, front out runs best instability then a late night line. HRRR has been abysmal for the past month. I can't really think of a single day it's gotten right recently. Go with SREFs or WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 thunder. woohoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 HRRR has been abysmal for the past month. I can't really think of a single day it's gotten right recently. Go with SREFs or WRF. Eh, It hasn't been *that* bad. And the wrf has had its share of misses as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Storms firing in NH and vt now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY1255 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY1255 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... FAIRFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... AHRRRT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 had small hail here around 1pm, nothing major. just some torrential downpours and some downed leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 That storm in Central Mass must be producing a ton of rain in that area. It's basically not moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The limiting factor for you guys is obviously lack of shear. nonetheless, there will be severe reports to be found across SNE today. Love those steep mid level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 WRF still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Notice the pulse type these are, they blow up then collapse, tough forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Notice the pulse type these are, they blow up then collapse, tough forecasting. yup. checked mobile radar about 40 minutes ago, saw a blob of -RA over Litchfield County and didn't think much of it. next thing you know it's hailing, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 golf balls south of DXR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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