CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Quick glance at the Albany numbers look good. -12.1C at 500. That's plenty good. Still would like to see it in graph form, but we have 5.2C at 700mb. That's a decent lapse rate. However shear is pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Let's hope those clouds out in NY state dissipate or slide to our SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Quick glance at the Albany numbers look good. -12.1C at 500. That's plenty good. Still would like to see it in graph form, but we have 5.2C at 700mb. That's a decent lapse rate. However shear is pretty weak. Is it me or is that a pretty steep NW flow? Its more like NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 EML= heavy heavy damage 7 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOSUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY HOLDING OFF TIL THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SCT STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 C/KM...PERHAPS INDICATIVE OF A MODIFIED EML ENVIRONMENT. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR IS MARGINAL WITH VALUES 25-30 KT BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME ORGANIZATION GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR LIKELY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS UNLESS VALUES INCREASE TO 35-40 KT...SO MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT WITH TSTMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Quick glance at the Albany numbers look good. -12.1C at 500. That's plenty good. Still would like to see it in graph form, but we have 5.2C at 700mb. That's a decent lapse rate. However shear is pretty weak. almost 7C, far better than usual. *edit* NWS says maybe modified EML..what's the exact source region of this airmass, anyone following that closely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Is it me or is that a pretty steep NW flow? Its more like NNW it's more nw, but tonight it turns more nnw. Tomorrow has a shot of being interesting for eastern and especially ne mass up into sw Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 EML= heavy heavy damage 7 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOSUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY HOLDING OFF TIL THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SCT STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CAPES UP TO 2000 J/KG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7 C/KM...PERHAPS INDICATIVE OF A MODIFIED EML ENVIRONMENT. DEEP LAYER 0-6KM SHEAR IS MARGINAL WITH VALUES 25-30 KT BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GET SOME ORGANIZATION GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY. MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR LIKELY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS UNLESS VALUES INCREASE TO 35-40 KT...SO MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT WITH TSTMS. 25 to 30 kts is still good enough. Would be awesome to get 40kts if we do indeed get about 2000J MLCAPE, but this is SNE after all so we take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 it's more nw, but tonight it turns more nnw. Tomorrow has a shot of being interesting for eastern and especially ne mass up into sw Maine. Looking at current Meso data... which spots are the most favorable now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looking at current Meso data... which spots are the most favorable now? I don't know if one area is overwhelmingly favored. Earlier I mentioned areas to the sw perhaps in terms of a better chance of severe, but some of those areas will have clouds for a few hours. I think even into eastern mass looks good, but the one thing that a few models show is the old 7/10 split over SNE. In other words, one batch of storms over NNE and another batch over PA. I don't think it will quote happen like that, but some show that. I like what I see so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Not bad. Is that little kick out the eml layer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Is that little kick out the eml layer? I wouldn't call it a true EML, but more modified. However, yes that's the start of it. You can also tell by the dry air the is also found at the same level as that little warm kink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The 12z BUF sounding is very unstable with 3500 j/kg of MUCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I wouldn't call it a true EML, but more modified. However, yes that's the start of it. You can also tell by the dry air the is also found at the same level as that little warm kink. Yeah the GFS yesterday was showing some 8-8.3 c/km lapse rates in mid levels. WIll be interesting to see if we wind up getting that at all. Next thing to watch will be the 12z models to see if they bump up deep layer shear a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Yeah the GFS yesterday was showing some 8-8.3 c/km lapse rates in mid levels. WIll be interesting to see if we wind up getting that at all. Next thing to watch will be the 12z models to see if they bump up deep layer shear a bit. Wish we could get 70F dews in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 if MEK posts I wlll get excited, hoping for the 7-10 split myself, playoffs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Bad timing with the storms in NY. That's going to be a problem for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Bad timing with the storms in NY. That's going to be a problem the main show for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 good luck, all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Bad timing with the storms in NY. That's going to be a problem for some of us. Looks like those are sliding SW of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks like those are sliding SW of SNE Damage may be done particularly for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Damage may be done particularly for CT For 1 hour tops of mid level clouds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 WRF has been pretty spot on in every event we've had this summer and both runs now have shown a line developing in C/W CT/MA around 2PM. And similarly show the ongoing convection in NY. I feel pretty good about today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 For 1 hour tops of mid level clouds? More than that plus spoiling mid level lapse rates as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 84/67 at 10:10am...warming up fast at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Essex county might be the place to be for tomorrow. Almost reminds me of July 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 WRF has been pretty spot on in every event we've had this summer and both runs now have shown a line developing in C/W CT/MA around 2PM. And similarly show the ongoing convection in NY. I feel pretty good about today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Essex county might be the place to be for tomorrow. Almost reminds me of July 4th. A tear comes to my eye just seeing you typed that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 A tear comes to my eye just seeing you typed that... And tears will be flowing if Newburyport gets nailed while you see the anvil. Just saying of all places in SNE, they look ok for tstms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 SREFs seem slow to bring tstms into SNE. Wonder we see a couple of different lines form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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