am19psu Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I'm not real excited about 90L. Best case scenario for development, imo, will be one of those fast spin up cases that happen in the Western Gulf. The environment only looks marginal through about Thursday with dry air to the west of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_DEACTIVATE_al902011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201107251415 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_DEACTIVATE_al902011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201107251415 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END What surprise. /not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypress Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Masters' blog today states the NHC dropped it as an invest on Sat afternoon - my hopes for rain have diminished "NHC has dropped this invest as of Saturday afternoon, but it remains on their radar. They're giving the wave a 0% chance to form over the next 48 hours. Given the recent uptick in mid-level circulation, I'd imagine they're still a little concerned about the potential for this wave to fire-up again once it's in the Gulf, and it will surely be of concern for Cuba as it tracks westward. However, given the lack of model support for almost 7 days in a row now, I'd say this wave has seen its glory come and go." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 The ECWMF is still not hanging up on the threat just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I'm not real excited about 90L. Best case scenario for development, imo, will be one of those fast spin up cases that happen in the Western Gulf. The environment only looks marginal through about Thursday with dry air to the west of the system. Do you think the dry air is that inhibitory... the TPW product from CIMSS shows the Gulf is relatively moist, especially considering the dry air that we saw advected into Bret last week. There are a few patches of 45mm but the vast majority of the Gulf of Mexico is 50+ mm which is plenty moist. Of course we don't really have much of a disturbance right now, but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 The ECWMF is still not hanging up on the threat just yet... Those must be some mighty fine straws you're grasping at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Do you think the dry air is that inhibitory... the TPW product from CIMSS shows the Gulf is relatively moist, especially considering the dry air that we saw advected into Bret last week. There are a few patches of 45mm but the vast majority of the Gulf of Mexico is 50+ mm which is plenty moist. Of course we don't really have much of a disturbance right now, but I can't find any other reason why the models would be so bearish on development. Shear won't be prohibitive. Maybe the weakly subsident phase of the MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Those must be some mighty fine straws you're grasping at I can't find any other reason why the models would be so bearish on development. Shear won't be prohibitive. Maybe the weakly subsident phase of the MJO? The unfavorable MJO phase has pretty much shut down most of the convection in the Atlantic basin. Ex. 90L is pretty much the only marginal threat in town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I knew this would happen (the Euro trying to get back our invest) . Oh well, I think this thread will have extra innings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I knew this would happen (the Euro trying to get back our invest) . Oh well, I think this thread will have extra innings. I took some flack this weekend when I mentioned keeping an eye near the Cayman's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I took some flack this weekend when I mentioned keeping an eye near the Cayman's... The 18Z GFS is stronger with the 850 Vorticity . It's nothing earth shattering but it's a start. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_DEACTIVATE_al902011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201107251415 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I took some flack this weekend when I mentioned keeping an eye near the Cayman's... Yeah, Adam never liked it ... It has been improving in organization, so I don't think the NHC will remove the lemon, and it might get bumped back to 10-20% by tomorrow. There's some discernable mid level rotation, and the 500-850mb vorticities have been strengthening, though they are still not vertically aligned, but are closer and better defined than before. Shear is low around the wave axis, but it's like tightrope walking with a TUTT from FL to the BOC, and things look marginal once in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 I took some flack this weekend when I mentioned keeping an eye near the Cayman's... Yeah, Adam never liked it ... It has been improving in organization, so I don't think the NHC will remove the lemon, and it might get bumped back to 10-20% by tomorrow. There's some discernable mid level rotation, and the 500-850mb vorticities have been strengthening, though they are still not vertically aligned, but are closer and better defined than before. Shear is low around the wave axis, but it's like tightrope walking with a TUTT from FL to the BOC, and things look marginal once in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 Flak away...we are true weenies and proud of it. "If it spins, there's a tiny hurricane in it." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 It's baaaaack BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al902011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201107260009 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 They shouldnt have deactivated it lol. Clearly its getting more organized and conditions are somewhat favorable. They must be waiting to see if convections persists overnight. EDIT: LOL nevermind just saw ivanhater's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 SHIPS says Hurricane CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0012 UTC TUE JUL 26 2011 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110726 0000 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 110726 0000 110726 1200 110727 0000 110727 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 19.2N 79.8W 20.0N 82.6W 20.7N 84.8W 21.3N 86.8W BAMD 19.2N 79.8W 19.8N 81.5W 20.4N 83.1W 21.0N 84.8W BAMM 19.2N 79.8W 19.9N 82.1W 20.5N 84.0W 21.1N 85.8W LBAR 19.2N 79.8W 19.9N 82.1W 20.9N 84.3W 21.8N 86.6W SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 39KTS DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 39KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 110728 0000 110729 0000 110730 0000 110731 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 22.2N 88.5W 24.4N 92.4W 26.4N 96.6W 28.1N 101.0W BAMD 21.5N 86.7W 22.7N 91.1W 23.6N 96.0W 24.3N 101.3W BAMM 21.8N 87.6W 23.5N 91.8W 25.1N 96.7W 26.5N 101.7W LBAR 22.9N 88.9W 25.9N 93.3W 28.7N 96.7W 30.6N 99.7W SHIP 46KTS 56KTS 67KTS 74KTS DSHP 46KTS 56KTS 67KTS 32KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 19.2N LONCUR = 79.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 77.0W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 14KT LATM24 = 18.1N LONM24 = 73.8W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN Action: Quote | Ignore User Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 I told you guys several days ago to watch out for this...that it could really ramp up later in the GOM............. ........(or maybe I was talking to my cat....I forget....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 I hope I am so wrong about this after trolling Steve about it in person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Well this is interesting. Rather favorable shear by tomorrow. 18z GFS and 12z ECM are rather close to development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Hmmm...wasn't there a Saturday discussion by BR about GOM cyclones and their interesting habits at times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Hmmm...wasn't there a Saturday discussion by BR about GOM cyclones and their interesting habits at times... Haha, like I said, I think this has a chance before landfall... I'm just not excited about it through Wednesday. We'll see, lord knows I've been way wrong before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Well this is interesting. Rather favorable shear by tomorrow. 18z GFS and 12z ECM are rather close to development. The RH is not that good, though. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 The RH is not that good, though. We'll see. True. Could have trouble maintaining convection as it did in the past. 00z Suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Sub title needs some help badly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Sub title needs some help badly... Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Guess I must be looking at the mid level circulation, but afternoon visible loops sure looked like the COC, such as it is, to be quite a bit farther north than the 00z initialization to me. Very near 20.5n and 80w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on July 25, 2011 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico... A tropical wave over the western Caribbean Sea continues to producedisorganized showers and thunderstorms over Cuba...Jamaica...theCayman Islands...and the nearby waters. Atmospheric conditions arenot expected to be conducive for significant development...and thissystem has a low chance...near 0 percent...of becoming a tropicalcyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at10 to 15 mph. Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during thenext 48 hours. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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