CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It seems the 12z suite brought the heaviest axis of rain north some. If I had to guess I'd say they NAM and GFS are over-doing the QPF a bit but the GFS ensembles are showing 1.25-1.50" over a lot of SNE so it'll be interesting to see if the NWS offices get a little more aggressive on amounts/duration of heavy rain in their late afternoon updates. Yeah Phil and I were talking about if the GFS was overdoing QPF and it's possible that some heavy amounts could be dropped with that track of the low..but I still would want to seea few more runs show this. Even the euro can be susceptible to QPF bombs and it will ultimately depend on the strength of the LLJ coming in here. However, it is a pretty good slug of PWAT coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Yeah Phil and I were talking about if the GFS was overdoing QPF and it's possible that some heavy amounts could be dropped with that track of the low..but I still would want to seea few more runs show this. Even the euro can be susceptible to QPF bombs and it will ultimately depend on the strength of the LLJ coming in here. However, it is a pretty good slug of PWAT coming in. Something like the Canadian could easily happen too. Best rains are sw of here and we get screwed. That case happens more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Enjoy the heavy rain..it's the only heavy rain you've got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It's so good to be back in the "westerlies" full time. The 12Z GFS says heat cancel through August 20th. Yeah Phil and I were talking about if the GFS was overdoing QPF and it's possible that some heavy amounts could be dropped with that track of the low..but I still would want to seea few more runs show this. Even the euro can be susceptible to QPF bombs and it will ultimately depend on the strength of the LLJ coming in here. However, it is a pretty good slug of PWAT coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Enjoy the heavy rain..it's the only heavy rain you've got You'll drive right by where I work. You should stop by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 You'll drive right by where I work. You should stop by. I'd love to..but I have to do a 13 mile run tomorrow starting at 4:30..then home, shower and on the road by 8:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Something like the Canadian could easily happen too. Best rains are sw of here and we get screwed. That case happens more often than not. that's how i figured we'd see the 12z runs go today - toward something like the ggem. some sref members are but i don't know given the big boys are hitting it pretty hard. i'm just really surprised by the amount of rain being pumped out and the consistency there is with it. there's not a great deal of forcing there. the gfs has a nice LLJ but it looked to me like it was a byproduct of the qpf-bomb-->lowering pressures-->fake jet instead of the reverse. otherwise, weak shortwave, not a ton of jet support, no baroclinic processes to speak of. like you mentioned earlier, just a really good surge of low and mid-level moisture i guess and some convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I'd love to..but I have to do a 13 mile run tomorrow starting at 4:30..then home, shower and on the road by 8:00. F*ck the run...you're on vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 that's how i figured we'd see the 12z runs go today - toward something like the ggem. some sref members are but i don't know given the big boys are hitting it pretty hard. i'm just really surprised by the amount of rain being pumped out and the consistency there is with it. there's not a great deal of forcing there. the gfs has a nice LLJ but it looked to me like it was a byproduct of the qpf-bomb-->lowering pressures-->fake jet instead of the reverse. otherwise, weak shortwave, not a ton of jet support, no baroclinic processes to speak of. like you mentioned earlier, just a really good surge of low and mid-level moisture i guess and some convergence. Yeah they make their own little storm...lol. That's kind of why I wanted to see if this continues for a few runs. You can get pretty healthy rains with a 30kt LLJ acting on a moist atmosphere, but I don't know about the 45kts shown on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Yeah they make their own little storm...lol. That's kind of why I wanted to see if this continues for a few runs. You can get pretty healthy rains with a 30kt LLJ acting on a moist atmosphere, but I don't know about the 45kts shown on the GFS. yeah you can watch the 850 winds pulse up and down with the qpf bomb as it comes from chicago area eastward. sometimes reaches 50+knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 F*ck the run...you're on vacation. My dew is up to 69 as I rush around getting ready..sweating like a horse...Still chilly and autumnal?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 August warmth is the inverse of February cold. The back of the season is broken, but summery wx can still operate on fumes for several more weeks. Finding anything above 85 is gonna be hard around here now. My dew is up to 69 as I rush around getting ready..sweating like a horse...Still chilly and autumnal?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 My dew is up to 69 as I rush around getting ready..sweating like a horse...Still chilly and autumnal?? You are nuts or a really bad bulls**t artist. I was home earlier and it was anything but summery. Even on the floor of the valley here in Northampton its just mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 My choice is to 69 a horse...Still wanna?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 My dew is up to 69 as I rush around getting ready..sweating like a horse...Still chilly and autumnal?? Dew is 61 at BOS and 62 here at work. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 It wasn't bad at all in NYC yesterday. I got online around 7 PMish and it was 78/62 there. There is free google wi-fi around Midtown Manhattan...just let's you on with no encription. I had to kill an hours time before my train left. Dew is 61 at BOS and 62 here at work. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 My dew is up to 69 as I rush around getting ready..sweating like a horse...Still chilly and autumnal?? The temp was in the mid 60s during my AM run, but the dews were pretty high (60s). We have a ways to go before fall wrings out the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Euro ensembles have 30-40% probs for 1" QPF in 12 hrs over western areas by 12z Sunday. That's dam good. Even pretty good probs for 0.5" in ern mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Decent downpours/possible rumbles of thunder?? just to my NW over N HFD Cty..Dark clouds to the NW..with a few sprinkles falling now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Pete, Steve Lathrop has got some good stuff out there for you at Apple Rise Sports if you need it; they're actually based just a couple hours north of you in South Londonderry, VT. The real young ones just ski in their regular winter boots and the skis strap on. Steve started one of his little ones skiing at a bit more than 7 months: http://www.applerise.com/mikayla.html We started both our guys skiing before the age of 1 using his stuff, and it works great. The timing of your new arrival isn’t perfect for the coming season, since they generally can’t get going with the equipment until they can stand, but things could be getting close by later in the spring. Prior to using the equipment though, we would just ski with our guys in our packs (at first it would have to be a front pack, and once they can support their head they can go in the backpack). We found that some ski areas won’t let you ride the lifts/ski with the kids in packs, but many will. Mad River is more on the relaxed side, so they may be cool with it, and of course in the backcountry you can do whatever you want. Just use sound judgment with precious cargo as I’m sure you would. Thanks J., I'm going to look Steve's stuff up when I get home. I'd like to get her started sooner rather than later but my wife thinks 2-3 is early enough.lol My older daughter took to skiing quickly so I'm hoping for similar results. Do they make infant avalanche beacons? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Euro ensembles have 30-40% probs for 1" QPF in 12 hrs over western areas by 12z Sunday. That's dam good. Even pretty good probs for 0.5" in ern mass. Like I said, cool wet summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 75/63, a high of 77 (74 @ 2k), a nice t-storm moving into the Chesterfield area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 those storms are in no hurry to move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Like I said, cool wet summer. Not nearly enough rain up this way since June. Pretty pleasant this past week though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 looks like one of those storms is trying to pop right over my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Yeah Phil and I were talking about if the GFS was overdoing QPF and it's possible that some heavy amounts could be dropped with that track of the low..but I still would want to seea few more runs show this. Even the euro can be susceptible to QPF bombs and it will ultimately depend on the strength of the LLJ coming in here. However, it is a pretty good slug of PWAT coming in. Is that an unusual track for this time of year? The way it slides right under SNE almost like an Alberta Clipper in terms of track anyway. 18z guidance still looks impressive with the heaviest rain along and just south of the pike on the GFS. NAM backed off some but still a solid dose of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Is that an unusual track for this time of year? The way it slides right under SNE almost like an Alberta Clipper in terms of track anyway. 18z guidance still looks impressive with the heaviest rain along and just south of the pike on the GFS. NAM backed off some but still a solid dose of rain. I wouldn't say it's unusual. What happens this time of year is that we normal don't have the strong LLJ to rip out ahead of the low, and therefore widespread QPF. Most of the time during the summer, the heavier rain is brought on by low level convergence near the track of the low. Either that, or a big theta-e push ahead of a warm front. In the latter case, it would normally result in a MCS type deal. GFS still hitting the heavy rain it seems. Ginx is nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I wouldn't say it's unusual. What happens this time of year is that we normal don't have the strong LLJ to rip out ahead of the low, and therefore widespread QPF. Most of the time during the summer, the heavier rain is brought on by low level convergence near the track of the low. Either that, or a big theta-e push ahead of a warm front. In the latter case, it would normally result in a MCS type deal. GFS still hitting the heavy rain it seems. Ginx is nervous. Looks like widespread 2-3 spot 5-6 inch amts. At least the lawn will get watered while I'm away. Ginx already has all his furniture on the 2nd floor and all beds are on stilts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Looks like widespread 2-3 spot 5-6 inch amts. At least the lawn will get watered while I'm away. Ginx already has all his furniture on the 2nd floor and all beds are on stilts LOL, I wouldn't mind a good rain. Could see another one Tuesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Decent downpours/possible rumbles of thunder?? just to my NW over N HFD Cty..Dark clouds to the NW..with a few sprinkles falling now Pin prick 2.5 totals on that micro cell to your WNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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