Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 BOX not doing cartwheels THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AS SFC-850 MB FLOW IS WESTERLY AND THIS WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY DRY OUT BLYR AND REDUCE SB INSTABILITY. ALSO NAM AND ECMWF HAVE GREATEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES MOVING OFFSHORE AFT 12Z. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO OFFSET THIS...WHICH IS REFLECTED BY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAVING WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS THE AREA. THUS LOW CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE WX POTENTIAL...BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS. TIMING LOOKS TO BE AS EARLY AS MIDDAY ACROSS NORTHERN MA AND SOUTHWEST NH AND THEN LATER IN THE AFTN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MON NIGHT... THIS COULD BE A LONG DURATION EVENT WITH CONVECTION LINGERING WELL INTO THE EVENING ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH COAST AS MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPES OF 500-1000J/KG. TSTMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z NORTH TO 09Z SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 You never know with these setups. Sometimes they can look like crap if there is showers/tstms in the morning..then by 10am it's cleared out and all hell breaks loose. Or...you have leftover cloud debris from an MCS to your sw, and things go to crap. The one thing I like, is the jet location with this..and the 500mb look. If we can't get the atmosphere to cook during the day, perhaps we may have to wait until the dynamics really help initiate stuff along the cold front. However, it's possible we may have just enough crud and lapse rate taint from any downstream convection. The 00z RAOBS over Quebec might be interesting tonight. We'll have somewhat of an idea of what is coming over the top of this ridge. Exactly. Where that remnant EML plume sets up and how it is modulated overnight by convection from southern Quebec to the Great Lakes is important. Also depends on what's ongoing at 12z that's trying to move into SNE and screw up our daytime heating. At least unlike many of our events this has some potential to feature a quasi-EML depending on what overnight convection does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Not really worried about cloud cover down here. I'm expecting to wake up to a glowing ball of yellow in the sky. Well actually when I wake up it will be dark out b/c I'll be waking up between 4:30 AM and 5:00 AM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Thing I'm probably most worried about is the EML getting tainted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Looks juicy for tomorrow. Someone is going to get some hefty rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I also see what BOX is talking about with the front slowing near the south coast. Could last into a good portion of the night, down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I also see what BOX is talking about with the front slowing near the south coast. Could last into a good portion of the night, down that way. I think that's why the NAM keeps the explosion of precip down in CT and RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I also see what BOX is talking about with the front slowing near the south coast. Could last into a good portion of the night, down that way. There could actually be some major training of storms down by the south coast if the front does indeed slow down like that. Could lead to some flooding issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 There could actually be some major training of storms down by the south coast if the front does indeed slow down like that. Could lead to some flooding issues. Bob's lawn could use it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 There could actually be some major training of storms down by the south coast if the front does indeed slow down like that. Could lead to some flooding issues. Yeah we'll see some decent line segments but we could really rip some heavy rain. 18z NAM is really really saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Yeah we'll see some decent line segments but we could really rip some heavy rain. 18z NAM is really really saturated. There could be some sick microbursts tomorrow where rainfall rates are so intense people driving would have to pull over...storms tomorrow could dump a good 2-3'' of rain in under an hour. Hopefully we can get some nice fat cape profiles...you don't want skinny cape profiles in a setup like tomorrow b/c then you just run into heavy rains as the main threat and it's hard to generate much severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Bob's lawn could use it Major disatsah! Hopefully I get my tea down before the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 There could be some sick microbursts tomorrow where rainfall rates are so intense people driving would have to pull over...storms tomorrow could dump a good 2-3'' of rain in under an hour. Hopefully we can get some nice fat cape profiles...you don't want skinny cape profiles in a setup like tomorrow b/c then you just run into heavy rains as the main threat and it's hard to generate much severe. That's fine by me the more rain the better. i can live just fine without the severe. Just give me the buckets of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 That's fine by me the more rain the better. i can live just fine without the severe. Just give me the buckets of rain! Story in the Globe today about how there is pretty big fire danger in Brimfield, Monson, etc from the tornadoes. Debris is really dry and is good fuel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Decent bow echo heading toward Ottawa. Should make it into far update NY and VT in some shape or form I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 lol they don't even refer to our region in the new day 2. yeah they do mention NE...Northern Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Decent bow echo heading toward Ottawa. Should make it into far update NY and VT in some shape or form I would think. Was just about to post that. Warning is for wind gusts up to 85 mph. Looks like a strong MCS on radar that'll probably cross through CNE, moving SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Nice area of 2000 J/KG MUcape across portions of NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I'm hoping we can get some good storms up this way during the daylight hours tomorrow up this way... I'll be up at 3,700ft all day and would love to see another wild ride up there. Thunderstorms in the valley have nothing on seeing a storm up near 4,000ft when you are literally in-the-storm as the clouds sock the place in and it goes pitch black. That's when you start hearing thunder that sounds like its coming from below or out in front of you, not above you necessarily. Plus even tame storms can pack some serious wind up at that elevation. Keeping my fingers crossed... just don't want it to happen during the 30 minute ATV ride to the summit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Yeah we'll see some decent line segments but we could really rip some heavy rain. 18z NAM is really really saturated. 18z NAM interestingly cut back the heavy precip from previous runs. I'm thinking the showers/tstorms gets into CNE early tomorrow like 12 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Here's BTV's take on the next 24 hours... bold portion is for that MCS in Quebec. Hopefully it can get far enough south to hit here. .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... AS OF 312 PM EDT SUNDAY...WARM/HOT HUMID LATE THIS AFTN WITH MAX T IN U80S/90 AND DEWPOINTS CREEPING INTO 60S IN VT AND M60S/70 IN NRN NY. CAPES ARE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG IN ST LWRNC VLY AND >1000 J/KG IN CHMPL VLY. THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN FOR TSRA AND PSBL SVR WX TNGT/OVRNGT AND SPC HAS PLACED NRN FA INTO SLGT RISK...SEE SWODY1. THE FIRST AND NOT MENTIONED IN SWODY1 IS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INDUCED MCS COMPLEX THAT FIRST STARTED IN ERN MONTANA FRI NGT AND HAS BEEN RELATIVELY HEALTHY ACRS NRN ONTARIO...N OF GRT LAKES IS MVG DOWNRIDGE ESE INTO QUEBEC AND WL THREATEN MONTREAL...SRN QUEBEC AND POSSIBLY VT THIS EVENING. HRRR-3KM HAS MODELED THIS QUITE WELL AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR SOME POTENTIAL SEVERE. THE SECOND AS MENTIONED IN SWODY1 IS ASSOCIATED WITH PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE ACRS NW ONTARIO AND SHOWN NICELY ON WTR VAPOR. THIS IS THE TRIGGER FOR THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT AND APPROACH OF CD FNT FOR FA DRG MON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE POOLING AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS SOME EML COMPONENTS AND PSBL BOUNDAIRES FROM 1ST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE ADDTNL CONVECTION AND PSBL MCS IN SE ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC INTO NRN NY OVRNGT. A POTENTIAL THIRD AREA THAT MAY AFFECT ST LWRNC VLY TOWARD MORNING IS ANOTHER DEVELOPING MCS IN N DAKOTA WHERE SPC HAS A MOD RISK IS ALIGNED WITH A GREATER EML LAYER THAT MOVES E INTO GRT LAKES. ALL OF THESE FEATURES ARE BEING SUPPORTED...ESP OVRNGT INTO MON ON LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF 100+ KTS H25 JET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Was just about to post that. Warning is for wind gusts up to 85 mph. Looks like a strong MCS on radar that'll probably cross through CNE, moving SE. 85??? Wow, Hopefully it can get here fast tonight then get into some clearing in the morning for tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 That thing looks to be hauling azz... wonder what kinda obs come out of ottawa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Can't wait to watch this not come anywhere near me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 MCD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Can't wait to watch this not come anywhere near me. That thing is sick.. probably has one hell of a shelf cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 MCD Think that MCS holds wiz? instability looks good for around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Can't wait to watch this not come anywhere near me. Chances are it won't...this setup is halfway decent except for one thing...boundary layer dewpoints. Usually strong and long lived nocturnal mcs events in the northeast are accompanied by 70+ sfc dews. They aren't close tonight. CAPE robber despite good mid level lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Think that MCS holds wiz? instability looks good for around here It's definitely going to hold for at least several more hours...it may weaken some though, gotta make sure it doesn't outrun the better mid/upper level support which is a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 CYOW 172330Z 29025G44KT 10SM -SHRA BKN071 OVC160 30/ RMK AC6AC2 DIST OCNL LTNG W -N CB EMBD VIS NW - N 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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